The fragmented candidate field and vote splitting among progressive challengers are keeping the Vancouver mayoral race tight ahead of the October 17 vote, with incumbent Ken Sim holding a modest polling edge around 22-30 percent. Recent August surveys from Research Co. and Pallas Data show Green Party councillor Pete Fry and Vancouver Liberals candidate Kareem Allam as the strongest contenders, often within striking distance but unable to consolidate support despite efforts at a left-leaning coalition. High undecided voter shares above 25 percent, combined with more than a dozen declared candidates, limit any single opponent’s path to a majority while favoring the sitting mayor’s base. Further polling shifts, candidate withdrawals, or late endorsements could widen gaps before nominations close in September.