Traders assign a low probability to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026 because recent military exercises and official statements from Beijing have remained below the threshold for direct action, while U.S. arms deliveries and joint training with Taiwanese forces continue without interruption. Diplomatic channels between Washington and Beijing have stayed open on regional security issues, and economic interdependence through semiconductor supply chains adds mutual restraint. Historical patterns show that major cross-strait crises require sustained buildup signals absent in the past year, though sudden shifts in leadership priorities or unforeseen crises could still alter the trajectory before the deadline.