Traders assign a 96.2% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, driven primarily by the narrow remaining window and absence of visible large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts needed for such an operation. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Beijing lacks a fixed timeline for unification and favors sustained coercion short of war through diplomatic, economic, and military pressure campaigns. Recent developments, including December 2025 blockade-style drills and Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises testing reservist call-ups and supply resilience, remain below thresholds signaling imminent conflict. Ongoing PLA readiness gaps and risks of U.S. and allied intervention further reinforce market consensus. Late shifts could still emerge from exercise miscalculations or abrupt policy changes, though structural and timing constraints limit these prospects before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВторгнется ли Китай на Тайвань к концу 2026 года?
Вторгнется ли Китай на Тайвань к концу 2026 года?
Да
$39,753,723 Объем
$39,753,723 Объем
Да
$39,753,723 Объем
$39,753,723 Объем
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Кто определяет исход
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Traders assign a 96.2% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, driven primarily by the narrow remaining window and absence of visible large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts needed for such an operation. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Beijing lacks a fixed timeline for unification and favors sustained coercion short of war through diplomatic, economic, and military pressure campaigns. Recent developments, including December 2025 blockade-style drills and Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang exercises testing reservist call-ups and supply resilience, remain below thresholds signaling imminent conflict. Ongoing PLA readiness gaps and risks of U.S. and allied intervention further reinforce market consensus. Late shifts could still emerge from exercise miscalculations or abrupt policy changes, though structural and timing constraints limit these prospects before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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