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Мир·Ближний Восток

Проведет ли Иран президентские выборы до 30 июня?

icon for Проведет ли Иран президентские выборы до 30 июня?
Мир·Ближний Восток

Проведет ли Иран президентские выборы до 30 июня?

Да

2% вероятность
Polymarket

$698,273 Объем

Да

2% вероятность
Polymarket

$698,273 Объем

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Iran's constitutional framework triggers a presidential election within 50 days solely after the incumbent's death, resignation, or confirmed incapacity, with the Guardian Council overseeing an interim leader. No such vacancy has arisen for President Masoud Pezeshkian, who continues his public schedule including recent meetings with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. The next regular contest under the four-year cycle falls well beyond June 30, 2026, leaving no procedural basis for an early vote. Trader consensus at 97.7% on "No" reflects this structural stability and the absence of qualifying developments in recent weeks. A sudden leadership transition before the resolution date remains the sole scenario that could shift probabilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.

Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.

Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$698,273
Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Iran's constitutional framework triggers a presidential election within 50 days solely after the incumbent's death, resignation, or confirmed incapacity, with the Guardian Council overseeing an interim leader. No such vacancy has arisen for President Masoud Pezeshkian, who continues his public schedule including recent meetings with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. The next regular contest under the four-year cycle falls well beyond June 30, 2026, leaving no procedural basis for an early vote. Trader consensus at 97.7% on "No" reflects this structural stability and the absence of qualifying developments in recent weeks. A sudden leadership transition before the resolution date remains the sole scenario that could shift probabilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.

Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.

Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$698,273
Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Проведет ли Иран президентские выборы до 30 июня?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 2 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Проведёт ли Иран президентские выборы до 30 июня?» с 2%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 2¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 2%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Проведет ли Иран президентские выборы до 30 июня?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $698.3K с момента запуска рынка Mar 1, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Проведет ли Иран президентские выборы до 30 июня?», просмотри 2 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Это очень открытый рынок. Текущий лидер для «Проведет ли Иран президентские выборы до 30 июня?» — «Проведёт ли Иран президентские выборы до 30 июня?» всего с 2%. Поскольку ни один исход не доминирует, трейдеры видят это как крайне неопределённую ситуацию, что может создавать уникальные торговые возможности. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени, так что добавь эту страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Проведет ли Иран президентские выборы до 30 июня?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.