Democrats are widely expected to regain House control in the November 2026 midterms, creating the structural precondition for passing articles of impeachment by simple majority. Traders price this outcome as the dominant driver behind the 67% implied probability, given repeated Democratic resolutions targeting immigration enforcement practices by ICE and CBP, alleged abuses of executive power, and other policy disputes. House Minority Leader statements and base pressure have signaled willingness to pursue proceedings if the chamber flips, consistent with historical patterns when the opposition holds majority status. Recent filings, including Rep. Al Green’s August 2026 articles focused on law-enforcement tactics, illustrate ongoing activity that could accelerate under new leadership. The market separates House impeachment from the higher bar of Senate conviction, reflecting trader consensus on congressional arithmetic rather than removal prospects.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудет ли Трамп подвергнут импичменту до истечения срока его полномочий?
Будет ли Трамп подвергнут импичменту до истечения срока его полномочий?
Да
67% вероятность
$95,084 Объем
$95,084 Объем
19 янв. 2029 г.
Да
67% вероятность
$95,084 Объем
$95,084 Объем
19 янв. 2029 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democrats are widely expected to regain House control in the November 2026 midterms, creating the structural precondition for passing articles of impeachment by simple majority. Traders price this outcome as the dominant driver behind the 67% implied probability, given repeated Democratic resolutions targeting immigration enforcement practices by ICE and CBP, alleged abuses of executive power, and other policy disputes. House Minority Leader statements and base pressure have signaled willingness to pursue proceedings if the chamber flips, consistent with historical patterns when the opposition holds majority status. Recent filings, including Rep. Al Green’s August 2026 articles focused on law-enforcement tactics, illustrate ongoing activity that could accelerate under new leadership. The market separates House impeachment from the higher bar of Senate conviction, reflecting trader consensus on congressional arithmetic rather than removal prospects.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Объем
$95,084Дата окончания
20 янв. 2029 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democrats are widely expected to regain House control in the November 2026 midterms, creating the structural precondition for passing articles of impeachment by simple majority. Traders price this outcome as the dominant driver behind the 67% implied probability, given repeated Democratic resolutions targeting immigration enforcement practices by ICE and CBP, alleged abuses of executive power, and other policy disputes. House Minority Leader statements and base pressure have signaled willingness to pursue proceedings if the chamber flips, consistent with historical patterns when the opposition holds majority status. Recent filings, including Rep. Al Green’s August 2026 articles focused on law-enforcement tactics, illustrate ongoing activity that could accelerate under new leadership. The market separates House impeachment from the higher bar of Senate conviction, reflecting trader consensus on congressional arithmetic rather than removal prospects.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Объем
$95,084Дата окончания
20 янв. 2029 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Democrats are widely expected to regain House control in the November 2026 midterms, creating the structural precondition for passing articles of impeachment by simple majority. Traders price this outcome as the dominant driver behind the 67% implied probability, given repeated Democratic resolutions targeting immigration enforcement practices by ICE and CBP, alleged abuses of executive power, and other policy disputes. House Minority Leader statements and base pressure have signaled willingness to pursue proceedings if the chamber flips, consistent with historical patterns when the opposition holds majority status. Recent filings, including Rep. Al Green’s August 2026 articles focused on law-enforcement tactics, illustrate ongoing activity that could accelerate under new leadership. The market separates House impeachment from the higher bar of Senate conviction, reflecting trader consensus on congressional arithmetic rather than removal prospects.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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