Trader consensus that no EU member state will withdraw before 2027 stems from the absence of any credible exit process, referendum, or government initiative across the bloc. Eurosceptic parties remain active in countries such as Hungary and France, yet leading officials have repeatedly reaffirmed continued membership, with Hungary’s foreign minister explicitly rejecting withdrawal speculation in recent months. No national election or legislative vote in the next eighteen months appears positioned to trigger Article 50 proceedings, and polling shows stable public support for EU participation in most member states. These factors have kept implied probabilities for an exit firmly below 10 percent, consistent with the post-Brexit pattern in which no other country has advanced formal departure measures.