Recent Houthi maritime restrictions, including the July 2026 blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels, have driven sharp volatility and a sustained decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily commodity ship crossings fluctuating between lows of 1–5 and highs near 30–39 amid elevated insurance costs and rerouting incentives. This has stabilized weekly volumes around 260–270 vessels—well below pre-escalation norms of roughly 350+—as carriers weigh risks from missile threats and enforcement actions tied to broader regional tensions. Market-implied odds favoring sub-25 daily averages reflect trader assessment of these persistent disruptions, with limited near-term catalysts for recovery before month-end absent verified de-escalation.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
<25 44.8%
25-29 27%
30-34 20%
35-39 6%
$15,134 ปริมาณ
$15,134 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
<25
45%
25-29
27%
30-34
20%
35-39
6%
40+
2%
<25 44.8%
25-29 27%
30-34 20%
35-39 6%
$15,134 ปริมาณ
$15,134 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
<25
$2,960 ปริมาณ
45%
25-29
$3,518 ปริมาณ
27%
30-34
$3,754 ปริมาณ
20%
35-39
$1,163 ปริมาณ
6%
40+
$3,738 ปริมาณ
2%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi maritime restrictions, including the July 2026 blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels, have driven sharp volatility and a sustained decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily commodity ship crossings fluctuating between lows of 1–5 and highs near 30–39 amid elevated insurance costs and rerouting incentives. This has stabilized weekly volumes around 260–270 vessels—well below pre-escalation norms of roughly 350+—as carriers weigh risks from missile threats and enforcement actions tied to broader regional tensions. Market-implied odds favoring sub-25 daily averages reflect trader assessment of these persistent disruptions, with limited near-term catalysts for recovery before month-end absent verified de-escalation.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$15,134วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi maritime restrictions, including the July 2026 blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels, have driven sharp volatility and a sustained decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily commodity ship crossings fluctuating between lows of 1–5 and highs near 30–39 amid elevated insurance costs and rerouting incentives. This has stabilized weekly volumes around 260–270 vessels—well below pre-escalation norms of roughly 350+—as carriers weigh risks from missile threats and enforcement actions tied to broader regional tensions. Market-implied odds favoring sub-25 daily averages reflect trader assessment of these persistent disruptions, with limited near-term catalysts for recovery before month-end absent verified de-escalation.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$15,134วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi maritime restrictions, including the July 2026 blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels, have driven sharp volatility and a sustained decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily commodity ship crossings fluctuating between lows of 1–5 and highs near 30–39 amid elevated insurance costs and rerouting incentives. This has stabilized weekly volumes around 260–270 vessels—well below pre-escalation norms of roughly 350+—as carriers weigh risks from missile threats and enforcement actions tied to broader regional tensions. Market-implied odds favoring sub-25 daily averages reflect trader assessment of these persistent disruptions, with limited near-term catalysts for recovery before month-end absent verified de-escalation.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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