A dominant high-pressure system over eastern Japan is steering warm, subsiding air into the Kanto Plain, supporting strong daytime insolation and pushing afternoon temperatures well above seasonal norms. Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble models currently project a daily maximum near or above 28 °C for Tokyo on May 18, consistent with recent observations of unseasonably warm conditions across the region. This setup explains why traders have priced 28 °C or higher as the clear favorite at 74 % implied probability, while outcomes at or below 27 °C remain secondary. The primary uncertainty lies in any last-minute shift in steering flow or increased cloud cover that could cap the peak a degree or two lower.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 18?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 18?
28°C or higher 64%
27°C 34%
26°C 3.1%
25°C <1%
ใหม่
$41,845 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$41,845 ปริมาณ
May 18, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
3%
27°C
34%
28°C or higher
64%
28°C or higher 64%
27°C 34%
26°C 3.1%
25°C <1%
ใหม่
$41,845 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$41,845 ปริมาณ
May 18, 2026
18°C or below
$3,106 ปริมาณ
<1%
19°C
$1,432 ปริมาณ
<1%
20°C
$1,081 ปริมาณ
<1%
21°C
$1,264 ปริมาณ
<1%
22°C
$1,918 ปริมาณ
<1%
23°C
$2,398 ปริมาณ
<1%
24°C
$15,840 ปริมาณ
<1%
25°C
$3,922 ปริมาณ
<1%
26°C
$4,109 ปริมาณ
3%
27°C
$2,878 ปริมาณ
34%
28°C or higher
$3,981 ปริมาณ
64%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.A dominant high-pressure system over eastern Japan is steering warm, subsiding air into the Kanto Plain, supporting strong daytime insolation and pushing afternoon temperatures well above seasonal norms. Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble models currently project a daily maximum near or above 28 °C for Tokyo on May 18, consistent with recent observations of unseasonably warm conditions across the region. This setup explains why traders have priced 28 °C or higher as the clear favorite at 74 % implied probability, while outcomes at or below 27 °C remain secondary. The primary uncertainty lies in any last-minute shift in steering flow or increased cloud cover that could cap the peak a degree or two lower.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$41,845วันสิ้นสุด
May 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.A dominant high-pressure system over eastern Japan is steering warm, subsiding air into the Kanto Plain, supporting strong daytime insolation and pushing afternoon temperatures well above seasonal norms. Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble models currently project a daily maximum near or above 28 °C for Tokyo on May 18, consistent with recent observations of unseasonably warm conditions across the region. This setup explains why traders have priced 28 °C or higher as the clear favorite at 74 % implied probability, while outcomes at or below 27 °C remain secondary. The primary uncertainty lies in any last-minute shift in steering flow or increased cloud cover that could cap the peak a degree or two lower.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$41,845วันสิ้นสุด
May 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTA dominant high-pressure system over eastern Japan is steering warm, subsiding air into the Kanto Plain, supporting strong daytime insolation and pushing afternoon temperatures well above seasonal norms. Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble models currently project a daily maximum near or above 28 °C for Tokyo on May 18, consistent with recent observations of unseasonably warm conditions across the region. This setup explains why traders have priced 28 °C or higher as the clear favorite at 74 % implied probability, while outcomes at or below 27 °C remain secondary. The primary uncertainty lies in any last-minute shift in steering flow or increased cloud cover that could cap the peak a degree or two lower.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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