Iran’s efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through attacks on noncompliant commercial vessels, combined with Houthi strikes near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, continue to shape trader views on the timing of successful targeting. A June memorandum of understanding collapsed after Iranian forces struck multiple ships in early July, prompting renewed U.S. strikes and a de facto blockade on traffic to Iranian ports. Fresh incidents in mid-August, including reported Houthi attacks killing crew members on Red Sea vessels and strikes affecting tankers in the Gulf, have kept disruption risks elevated despite intermittent diplomatic contacts with Oman. Upcoming talks and potential further U.S. or Israeli responses remain key variables that could alter the pace of incidents before the market resolves.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$156,178 ปริมาณ
Aug 15, 2026
August 15
5%
August 16
17%
August 17
24%
August 18
19%
August 19
19%
August 20
13%
August 21
12%
August 22
15%
August 23
15%
August 24
15%
August 25
14%
August 26
14%
August 27
14%
August 28
15%
August 29
22%
August 30
13%
August 31
11%
$156,178 ปริมาณ
August 15
$6,857 ปริมาณ
5%
August 16
$3,242 ปริมาณ
17%
August 17
$685 ปริมาณ
24%
August 18
$514 ปริมาณ
19%
August 19
$3,936 ปริมาณ
19%
August 20
$1,557 ปริมาณ
13%
August 21
$1,254 ปริมาณ
12%
August 22
$545 ปริมาณ
15%
August 23
$3,009 ปริมาณ
15%
August 24
$6,259 ปริมาณ
15%
August 25
$116 ปริมาณ
14%
August 26
$768 ปริมาณ
14%
August 27
$408 ปริมาณ
14%
August 28
$1,225 ปริมาณ
15%
August 29
$1,977 ปริมาณ
22%
August 30
$240 ปริมาณ
13%
August 31
$1,739 ปริมาณ
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran’s efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through attacks on noncompliant commercial vessels, combined with Houthi strikes near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, continue to shape trader views on the timing of successful targeting. A June memorandum of understanding collapsed after Iranian forces struck multiple ships in early July, prompting renewed U.S. strikes and a de facto blockade on traffic to Iranian ports. Fresh incidents in mid-August, including reported Houthi attacks killing crew members on Red Sea vessels and strikes affecting tankers in the Gulf, have kept disruption risks elevated despite intermittent diplomatic contacts with Oman. Upcoming talks and potential further U.S. or Israeli responses remain key variables that could alter the pace of incidents before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$156,178วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran’s efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through attacks on noncompliant commercial vessels, combined with Houthi strikes near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, continue to shape trader views on the timing of successful targeting. A June memorandum of understanding collapsed after Iranian forces struck multiple ships in early July, prompting renewed U.S. strikes and a de facto blockade on traffic to Iranian ports. Fresh incidents in mid-August, including reported Houthi attacks killing crew members on Red Sea vessels and strikes affecting tankers in the Gulf, have kept disruption risks elevated despite intermittent diplomatic contacts with Oman. Upcoming talks and potential further U.S. or Israeli responses remain key variables that could alter the pace of incidents before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$156,178วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through attacks on noncompliant commercial vessels, combined with Houthi strikes near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, continue to shape trader views on the timing of successful targeting. A June memorandum of understanding collapsed after Iranian forces struck multiple ships in early July, prompting renewed U.S. strikes and a de facto blockade on traffic to Iranian ports. Fresh incidents in mid-August, including reported Houthi attacks killing crew members on Red Sea vessels and strikes affecting tankers in the Gulf, have kept disruption risks elevated despite intermittent diplomatic contacts with Oman. Upcoming talks and potential further U.S. or Israeli responses remain key variables that could alter the pace of incidents before the market resolves.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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