Israel's airspace has experienced repeated temporary closures tied to military escalations in the Iran conflict, including multiple shutdowns from February through July 2026 during U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent missile and drone retaliation. As of mid-August 2026, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open for civilian operations following phased reopenings, though EASA maintains risk advisories and many carriers continue avoiding Ben Gurion Airport amid volatile regional threats from proxies. Recent assessments, including June 2026 reviews after intercepts of Yemen-launched missiles, concluded no broad closure was required, supporting trader consensus that probabilities for an imminent major suspension stay low absent fresh large-scale attacks or preemptive measures. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could still trigger short-notice NOTAMs.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$27,254,846 ปริมาณ
Jul 15, 2026
August 31
5%
$27,254,846 ปริมาณ
August 31
$1,222,965 ปริมาณ
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's airspace has experienced repeated temporary closures tied to military escalations in the Iran conflict, including multiple shutdowns from February through July 2026 during U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent missile and drone retaliation. As of mid-August 2026, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open for civilian operations following phased reopenings, though EASA maintains risk advisories and many carriers continue avoiding Ben Gurion Airport amid volatile regional threats from proxies. Recent assessments, including June 2026 reviews after intercepts of Yemen-launched missiles, concluded no broad closure was required, supporting trader consensus that probabilities for an imminent major suspension stay low absent fresh large-scale attacks or preemptive measures. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could still trigger short-notice NOTAMs.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$27,254,846วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's airspace has experienced repeated temporary closures tied to military escalations in the Iran conflict, including multiple shutdowns from February through July 2026 during U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent missile and drone retaliation. As of mid-August 2026, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open for civilian operations following phased reopenings, though EASA maintains risk advisories and many carriers continue avoiding Ben Gurion Airport amid volatile regional threats from proxies. Recent assessments, including June 2026 reviews after intercepts of Yemen-launched missiles, concluded no broad closure was required, supporting trader consensus that probabilities for an imminent major suspension stay low absent fresh large-scale attacks or preemptive measures. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could still trigger short-notice NOTAMs.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$27,254,846วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's airspace has experienced repeated temporary closures tied to military escalations in the Iran conflict, including multiple shutdowns from February through July 2026 during U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent missile and drone retaliation. As of mid-August 2026, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open for civilian operations following phased reopenings, though EASA maintains risk advisories and many carriers continue avoiding Ben Gurion Airport amid volatile regional threats from proxies. Recent assessments, including June 2026 reviews after intercepts of Yemen-launched missiles, concluded no broad closure was required, supporting trader consensus that probabilities for an imminent major suspension stay low absent fresh large-scale attacks or preemptive measures. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could still trigger short-notice NOTAMs.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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