This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between January 27 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between September 3 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between September 20 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between September 20 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Israel’s governing coalition, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, submitted legislation on May 13, 2026, to dissolve the 25th Knesset before the end of its term and advance elections from the scheduled October 27 deadline. The move followed a revolt by ultra-Orthodox parties over stalled legislation exempting yeshiva students from military service, with coalition factions seeking to retain control of the election date through the Knesset House Committee. A preliminary vote on the dissolution bill is expected the following week, after which elections would occur no earlier than 90 days later, potentially in September or October. Opposition parties have introduced competing measures, heightening competition over timing while the coalition advances other legislation ahead of any dissolution. These steps reflect standard parliamentary procedures in Israel’s multi-party system, where coalition stability often determines whether the Knesset completes its full term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Israel’s governing coalition, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, submitted legislation on May 13, 2026, to dissolve the 25th Knesset before the end of its term and advance elections from the scheduled October 27 deadline. The move followed a revolt by ultra-Orthodox parties over stalled legislation exempting yeshiva students from military service, with coalition factions seeking to retain control of the election date through the Knesset House Committee. A preliminary vote on the dissolution bill is expected the following week, after which elections would occur no earlier than 90 days later, potentially in September or October. Opposition parties have introduced competing measures, heightening competition over timing while the coalition advances other legislation ahead of any dissolution. These steps reflect standard parliamentary procedures in Israel’s multi-party system, where coalition stability often determines whether the Knesset completes its full term.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
May 15 2026
Israeli cabinet debates settlement expansion amid political pressure
May 31 drops to 4%9%
Intensified settlement policy debates signaled internal governmental strain, prompting traders to pull back from the May‑31 scenario as the likelihood of an early dissolution appeared reduced.
May 14 2026
UN peacekeepers report surge in Israeli‑Lebanon incidents
May 31 drops to 13%10%
A report of increased Israeli attacks near UNIFIL positions heightened regional security concerns, causing a rapid drop in confidence for the May‑31 outcome as attention shifted to external conflicts.
May 13 2026
Israel returns remains of last Israeli hostage from Gaza
May 31 plunges to 8%23%
The recovery of Ran Gvili’s remains removed a key political hurdle, leading traders to favor a May‑31 dissolution as the government could now focus on internal politics rather than cease‑fire negotiations.
May 13 2026
Limited travel through Rafah crossing resumes amid ceasefire talks
The partial reopening of the Rafah crossing was interpreted as progress in the ceasefire’s second phase, reducing urgency for a political reset and causing the market’s May‑31 probability to fall while the June‑30 outlook rose sharply.
May 12 2026
Netanyahu faces internal coalition pressure over Gaza Board of Peace
June 30 surges to 48%31%
Internal coalition divisions regarding the U.S.-led Board of Peace and the future of Gaza governance created renewed speculation about the government's stability.
May 12 2026
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal to Egypt
June 30 surges to 45%31%
The landmark energy agreement was seen as a major diplomatic win for Netanyahu’s government, increasing confidence that his coalition could survive until a June‑30 dissolution, pushing the price sharply upward.
Apr 25 2026
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on settler violence in the West Bank
June 30 dips to 40%4%
Prime Minister Netanyahu met with top security officials to address rising Israeli settler violence in the West Bank, signaling government focus on security and internal stability rather than political upheaval. This meeting reassured markets about political continuity, contributing to price declines for early dissolution outcomes.
Apr 18 2026
UNRWA demolition sparks international criticism and protests
The demolition led to widespread condemnation and protests, increasing domestic political pressure on Netanyahu’s coalition and causing a sharp drop in the market’s confidence that the Knesset would survive until June, pulling the price down sharply.
Apr 4 2026
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising settler violence in the West Bank
June 30 drops to 12%8%
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with top security officials to address escalating Israeli settler violence in the West Bank, including attacks causing injuries and property damage. The meeting highlighted ongoing security challenges but did not indicate any parliamentary dissolution, reflecting continued political tensions without triggering a government collapse.
Apr 2 2026
Israel approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
June 30 rises to 20%2%
The approval of a major gas deal with Egypt was seen as a stabilizing factor for the government, reducing the immediate likelihood of a parliamentary dissolution.
Apr 2 2026
Iran protests erupt over currency plunge and economic woes
June 30 drops to 11%6%
Widespread protests in Iran over economic conditions and currency collapse increased regional instability, potentially influencing Israeli political dynamics and market perceptions of parliamentary dissolution likelihood.
Mar 25 2026
Israeli UNRWA sites in East Jerusalem targeted and demolished
June 30 plunges to 17%23%
Israel enforced a new law banning UNRWA operations in East Jerusalem, escalating tensions and reflecting ongoing political strife that could impact government stability and parliamentary actions.
Mar 7 2026
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
June 30 surges to 66%27%
The military operation to find the last hostage was a critical condition for moving to the next phase of the ceasefire, causing a spike in market uncertainty regarding the government's future.
Mar 7 2026
Israel’s Knesset passes law banning UNRWA operations
June 30 drops to 56%13%
The Knesset approved legislation severing ties with UNRWA, heightening political tensions and prompting speculation that the parliament could be dissolved early to avoid further controversy, boosting the June‑30 option.
Mar 6 2026
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal to Egypt
The historic gas agreement was presented as a boost to Israel’s economy and regional standing, improving the governing coalition’s prospects and reducing immediate pressure for a snap election, which helped lift the June‑30 probability.
Mar 6 2026
Federal judge bars Arizona from prosecuting Kalshi prediction market operator
June 30 surges to 66%25%
A federal judge temporarily blocked Arizona from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi, a prediction market platform, highlighting regulatory uncertainty that may influence market perceptions of political event outcomes including Israeli parliamentary dissolution.
Feb 26 2026
Israel launches large‑scale operation to locate last Gaza hostage
June 30 surges to 54%22%
Israel announced a major search effort for the final hostage, signalling progress toward the cease‑fire’s second phase and raising expectations that the Knesset might be dissolved by June 30 to enable a new government formation.
Feb 15 2026
Israeli military launches operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
June 30 drops to 35%5%
Israel intensified efforts to recover the remains of the last hostage in Gaza, reflecting ongoing conflict and political pressures that may affect government stability and parliamentary decisions.
Feb 11 2026
Israel demolishes UNRWA sites in East Jerusalem amid legal battle
The Israeli Foreign Ministry confirmed demolition of UNRWA facilities, heightening diplomatic tensions and raising speculation that the government might call early elections to consolidate support, nudging the market toward a later dissolution date.
Feb 11 2026
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising settler violence in West Bank
June 30 plunges to 40%15%
Netanyahu met with security officials to address increasing Israeli settler violence in the West Bank, highlighting internal political tensions and security concerns that could impact government stability and parliamentary actions.
Jan 28 2026
Israel launches large‑scale operation to locate last Gaza hostage
Prime Minister Netanyahu announced a major military effort to recover the final Israeli hostage, a step seen as prerequisite for moving to the second phase of the U.S.‑brokered ceasefire, which could delay any parliamentary dissolution until after the June‑30 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between January 27 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between September 3 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between September 20 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between September 20 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Israel’s governing coalition, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, submitted legislation on May 13, 2026, to dissolve the 25th Knesset before the end of its term and advance elections from the scheduled October 27 deadline. The move followed a revolt by ultra-Orthodox parties over stalled legislation exempting yeshiva students from military service, with coalition factions seeking to retain control of the election date through the Knesset House Committee. A preliminary vote on the dissolution bill is expected the following week, after which elections would occur no earlier than 90 days later, potentially in September or October. Opposition parties have introduced competing measures, heightening competition over timing while the coalition advances other legislation ahead of any dissolution. These steps reflect standard parliamentary procedures in Israel’s multi-party system, where coalition stability often determines whether the Knesset completes its full term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Israel’s governing coalition, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, submitted legislation on May 13, 2026, to dissolve the 25th Knesset before the end of its term and advance elections from the scheduled October 27 deadline. The move followed a revolt by ultra-Orthodox parties over stalled legislation exempting yeshiva students from military service, with coalition factions seeking to retain control of the election date through the Knesset House Committee. A preliminary vote on the dissolution bill is expected the following week, after which elections would occur no earlier than 90 days later, potentially in September or October. Opposition parties have introduced competing measures, heightening competition over timing while the coalition advances other legislation ahead of any dissolution. These steps reflect standard parliamentary procedures in Israel’s multi-party system, where coalition stability often determines whether the Knesset completes its full term.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
May 15 2026
Israeli cabinet debates settlement expansion amid political pressure
May 31 drops to 4%9%
Intensified settlement policy debates signaled internal governmental strain, prompting traders to pull back from the May‑31 scenario as the likelihood of an early dissolution appeared reduced.
May 14 2026
UN peacekeepers report surge in Israeli‑Lebanon incidents
May 31 drops to 13%10%
A report of increased Israeli attacks near UNIFIL positions heightened regional security concerns, causing a rapid drop in confidence for the May‑31 outcome as attention shifted to external conflicts.
May 13 2026
Israel returns remains of last Israeli hostage from Gaza
May 31 plunges to 8%23%
The recovery of Ran Gvili’s remains removed a key political hurdle, leading traders to favor a May‑31 dissolution as the government could now focus on internal politics rather than cease‑fire negotiations.
May 13 2026
Limited travel through Rafah crossing resumes amid ceasefire talks
The partial reopening of the Rafah crossing was interpreted as progress in the ceasefire’s second phase, reducing urgency for a political reset and causing the market’s May‑31 probability to fall while the June‑30 outlook rose sharply.
May 12 2026
Netanyahu faces internal coalition pressure over Gaza Board of Peace
June 30 surges to 48%31%
Internal coalition divisions regarding the U.S.-led Board of Peace and the future of Gaza governance created renewed speculation about the government's stability.
May 12 2026
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal to Egypt
June 30 surges to 45%31%
The landmark energy agreement was seen as a major diplomatic win for Netanyahu’s government, increasing confidence that his coalition could survive until a June‑30 dissolution, pushing the price sharply upward.
Apr 25 2026
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on settler violence in the West Bank
June 30 dips to 40%4%
Prime Minister Netanyahu met with top security officials to address rising Israeli settler violence in the West Bank, signaling government focus on security and internal stability rather than political upheaval. This meeting reassured markets about political continuity, contributing to price declines for early dissolution outcomes.
Apr 18 2026
UNRWA demolition sparks international criticism and protests
The demolition led to widespread condemnation and protests, increasing domestic political pressure on Netanyahu’s coalition and causing a sharp drop in the market’s confidence that the Knesset would survive until June, pulling the price down sharply.
Apr 4 2026
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising settler violence in the West Bank
June 30 drops to 12%8%
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with top security officials to address escalating Israeli settler violence in the West Bank, including attacks causing injuries and property damage. The meeting highlighted ongoing security challenges but did not indicate any parliamentary dissolution, reflecting continued political tensions without triggering a government collapse.
Apr 2 2026
Israel approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
June 30 rises to 20%2%
The approval of a major gas deal with Egypt was seen as a stabilizing factor for the government, reducing the immediate likelihood of a parliamentary dissolution.
Apr 2 2026
Iran protests erupt over currency plunge and economic woes
June 30 drops to 11%6%
Widespread protests in Iran over economic conditions and currency collapse increased regional instability, potentially influencing Israeli political dynamics and market perceptions of parliamentary dissolution likelihood.
Mar 25 2026
Israeli UNRWA sites in East Jerusalem targeted and demolished
June 30 plunges to 17%23%
Israel enforced a new law banning UNRWA operations in East Jerusalem, escalating tensions and reflecting ongoing political strife that could impact government stability and parliamentary actions.
Mar 7 2026
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
June 30 surges to 66%27%
The military operation to find the last hostage was a critical condition for moving to the next phase of the ceasefire, causing a spike in market uncertainty regarding the government's future.
Mar 7 2026
Israel’s Knesset passes law banning UNRWA operations
June 30 drops to 56%13%
The Knesset approved legislation severing ties with UNRWA, heightening political tensions and prompting speculation that the parliament could be dissolved early to avoid further controversy, boosting the June‑30 option.
Mar 6 2026
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal to Egypt
The historic gas agreement was presented as a boost to Israel’s economy and regional standing, improving the governing coalition’s prospects and reducing immediate pressure for a snap election, which helped lift the June‑30 probability.
Mar 6 2026
Federal judge bars Arizona from prosecuting Kalshi prediction market operator
June 30 surges to 66%25%
A federal judge temporarily blocked Arizona from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi, a prediction market platform, highlighting regulatory uncertainty that may influence market perceptions of political event outcomes including Israeli parliamentary dissolution.
Feb 26 2026
Israel launches large‑scale operation to locate last Gaza hostage
June 30 surges to 54%22%
Israel announced a major search effort for the final hostage, signalling progress toward the cease‑fire’s second phase and raising expectations that the Knesset might be dissolved by June 30 to enable a new government formation.
Feb 15 2026
Israeli military launches operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
June 30 drops to 35%5%
Israel intensified efforts to recover the remains of the last hostage in Gaza, reflecting ongoing conflict and political pressures that may affect government stability and parliamentary decisions.
Feb 11 2026
Israel demolishes UNRWA sites in East Jerusalem amid legal battle
The Israeli Foreign Ministry confirmed demolition of UNRWA facilities, heightening diplomatic tensions and raising speculation that the government might call early elections to consolidate support, nudging the market toward a later dissolution date.
Feb 11 2026
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising settler violence in West Bank
June 30 plunges to 40%15%
Netanyahu met with security officials to address increasing Israeli settler violence in the West Bank, highlighting internal political tensions and security concerns that could impact government stability and parliamentary actions.
Jan 28 2026
Israel launches large‑scale operation to locate last Gaza hostage
Prime Minister Netanyahu announced a major military effort to recover the final Israeli hostage, a step seen as prerequisite for moving to the second phase of the U.S.‑brokered ceasefire, which could delay any parliamentary dissolution until after the June‑30 deadline.
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