Ultra-Orthodox boycott coalition legislation, increasing pressure for Knesset dissolution

July 15 plunges to 16%38%

Ultra-Orthodox parties launched a legislative boycott, derailing the coalition’s agenda and increasing the likelihood of Knesset dissolution. The boycott reflects deep dissatisfaction over draft exemption legislation and coalition instability.

Opposition leader calls dissolution vote 'beginning of end' for Netanyahu government

July 15 plunges to 30%35%

Yair Golan of the Democrats party condemned the dissolution vote as the start of the end for Netanyahu's government, signaling strong opposition sentiment and political instability, which influenced market sentiment about the election timing and outcome.

Opposition calls Knesset dissolution 'beginning of end' of Netanyahu government

July 31 dips to 67%4%

Opposition leaders celebrated the dissolution bill's advancement, framing it as the downfall of Netanyahu's government amid political crises and public dissatisfaction following the Gaza war. This sentiment influenced market confidence in early elections.

MKs unanimously advance bill to dissolve Knesset amid coalition crisis

July 31 jumps to 71%5%

On June 25, 2026, Knesset members unanimously advanced the dissolution bill, reflecting the coalition's collapse and the ultra-Orthodox parties' insistence on early elections. This event reinforced market expectations for dissolution by late July, with the July 31 option rising to 71%.

Opposition calls for halting controversial coalition legislation amid dissolution process

Blue and White chairman Benny Gantz urged the Knesset Speaker to halt controversial coalition legislation during the dissolution process, highlighting political tensions and opposition resistance. This underscored the unstable political environment leading to early elections.

Knesset advances bill to dissolve parliament amid coalition crisis

The Knesset unanimously advanced the dissolution bill amid ongoing disputes over judicial reforms and ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions, signaling imminent early elections.

Lawmakers urge swift Knesset dissolution amid legislative gridlock

Amid ongoing political stalemate and failure to advance controversial legislation, opposition and some coalition lawmakers called for expediting the Knesset dissolution process to trigger early elections. The ultra-Orthodox parties remained firm on dissolution despite attempts to negotiate draft exemption legislation.

Ultra-Orthodox leaders instruct party to support Knesset dissolution

Senior rabbis from United Torah Judaism instructed their party's MKs to support the dissolution bill, reflecting the ultra-Orthodox community's shift towards ending the coalition amid unresolved draft exemption disputes. This political development solidified the path to early elections.

Ultra-Orthodox protests escalate against military conscription and draft evader arrests

Widespread protests by ultra-Orthodox Jewish communities against military conscription and the arrest of draft evaders intensified, highlighting deep political divisions and ongoing resistance to conscription laws, further destabilizing the coalition.

Reports indicate election likely on original October 27 date, not earlier

July 15 drops to 46%6%

By June 23, 2026, sources indicated that the 2026 Israeli election is likely to be held on the original October 27 date rather than earlier, with the pre-election parliamentary recess starting mid-July. This tempered earlier market expectations for a September election.

Knesset House Committee unanimously advances dissolution bill

July 31 jumps to 72%5%

The Knesset House Committee voted 8-0 to advance the dissolution legislation, moving the bill closer to final passage and early elections. This event supported the market's rising confidence in the July 31 dissolution outcome.

Market confidence peaks for July 31 election date amid final dissolution bill progress

July 31 rises to 72%2%

By June 22, 2026, market prices for the July 31 election date reached 72%, reflecting growing confidence that the Knesset dissolution would lead to elections near the end of October rather than mid-September. This was influenced by ongoing legislative progress and political negotiations.

Netanyahu Considers Pushing Knesset Dissolution Within Days Amid Haredi Boycott

July 15 surges to 59%15%

Frustrated by the ultra-Orthodox parties' legislative boycott and refusal to compromise on draft exemptions, Netanyahu considered fast-tracking the final votes to dissolve the Knesset, impacting the July 15 and July 31 timelines.

Netanyahu considers pushing final dissolution votes to block Haredi bills

July 15 surges to 64%17%

Faced with a legislative boycott by ultra-Orthodox parties pushing for draft exemptions, Netanyahu considered fast-tracking the final readings of the Knesset dissolution bill, shifting market expectations toward July options.

Knesset House Committee to set election date after dissolution bill progress

July 31 surges to 86%31%

Following the advancement of the dissolution bill, the Knesset House Committee was expected to set the election date, likely between early September and late October. This expectation caused a sharp market price increase for the July 31 outcome, reflecting confidence in dissolution and election timing.

Knesset committee delays setting election date amid coalition disagreements

July 31 surges to 72%17%

The Knesset House Committee postponed deciding on a specific election date due to disagreements within the coalition, with ultra-Orthodox parties favoring early September and Likud preferring later October, prolonging uncertainty.

Ultra-Orthodox parties push for early September election date amid ongoing conflicts

July 15 jumps to 48%14%

In mid-June 2026, ultra-Orthodox parties advocated for elections in early September, citing military draft disputes and ongoing regional conflicts. This influenced market sentiment, causing fluctuations in the July 15 and July 31 election date options as political negotiations continued.

Ultra-Orthodox parties push for early elections in September amid draft law crisis

July 15 plunges to 48%17%

By mid-June 2026, ultra-Orthodox factions publicly supported dissolving the Knesset to trigger early elections, favoring dates in early September before the High Holidays. This intensified political uncertainty caused a drop in market confidence for the July 15 election date.

Political uncertainty and coalition fractures weigh on election timing

June 30 dips to 14%4%

Ongoing disputes within the coalition and opposition maneuvers over the ultra-Orthodox draft dispute created uncertainty about the exact election date, causing volatility and a decline in the June 30 election price.

Religious party quits Netanyahu coalition over military draft dispute

July 15 plunges to 34%31%

United Torah Judaism members resigned from government posts in protest over failure to guarantee military draft exemptions, weakening Netanyahu’s coalition and increasing chances of early Knesset dissolution.

Netanyahu attempts to revive ultra-Orthodox draft bill to avoid early elections

July 15 plunges to 32%33%

Prime Minister Netanyahu resumed discussions on the controversial ultra-Orthodox draft exemption bill to try to prevent early elections, but ultra-Orthodox leaders remained firm on dissolution, maintaining political instability.

Knesset House Committee votes 8-0 to advance dissolution bill, election date discussions ongoing

The House Committee unanimously voted to advance the dissolution bill, with coalition leaders indicating the election would be held between September 8 and October 20, 2026, maintaining the expected window for early elections.

Knesset advances dissolution bill amid political deadlock and security concerns

July 31 dips to 66%3%

The Knesset advanced the dissolution bill further amid ongoing political deadlock over military draft exemptions and security challenges. The bill's progress solidified expectations for early elections, with the market price for dissolution on July 31 stabilizing around 66%.

Ultra-Orthodox parties push for early September election date amid military draft dispute

July 31 rises to 69%2%

Ultra-Orthodox parties favored an election date in early September 2025, intensifying political negotiations and influencing market expectations for a September dissolution date.

Israel's Central Elections Committee warns of delays if elections held during Jewish holidays

June 30 drops to 18%13%

The committee warned that holding elections on September 15, during a period of Jewish holidays, would delay vote counting and official results publication. This added uncertainty to the exact election date, affecting market pricing for the June 30 and July 31 outcomes.

Political opposition criticizes government amid ongoing election preparations

July 31 dips to 72%4%

Opposition leaders condemned the government for failures in security and governance, framing the upcoming election as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership, impacting market sentiment on election timing.

Israeli government allocates funds for West Bank settlements amid ongoing political tensions

July 31 dips to 76%4%

The government allocated significant funds for settlement expansion in the West Bank, reflecting ongoing political and security challenges that may influence election dynamics and coalition stability.

Knesset prepares for crucial vote on dissolution bill amid military service crisis

June 30 drops to 23%12%

The Knesset prepared to vote on a bill calling for its own dissolution, driven by the ongoing crisis over extending mandatory military service to ultra-Orthodox Jews.

Knesset to vote on dissolution bill amid coalition rift over ultra-Orthodox conscription

July 31 jumps to 72%6%

The Knesset prepared for a key vote on the dissolution bill amid ongoing coalition tensions over military conscription exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews. The bill's progress underscored the fragile state of Netanyahu's government and the likelihood of early elections in September or October 2025.

Knesset votes 106-0 in first reading of coalition bill to dissolve parliament

The Knesset passed the first reading of the dissolution bill unanimously, signaling strong parliamentary consensus to dissolve and hold early elections, further solidifying the timeline for elections between early September and mid-October 2026.

Ultra-Orthodox parties push for Knesset dissolution amid draft bill stalemate

Ultra-Orthodox parties, frustrated by the coalition’s failure to pass the draft exemption bill, intensified their push to dissolve the Knesset and trigger early elections. This political pressure increased the likelihood of the dissolution bill passing its final readings soon.

Ultra-Orthodox parties resist coalition efforts on draft exemption bill

July 31 jumps to 73%5%

Ultra-Orthodox parties rejected coalition proposals to resolve the military draft exemption dispute, increasing pressure for early elections and supporting market confidence in a September election date.

Ultra-Orthodox leaders urge support for Knesset dissolution amid draft bill deadlock

July 31 rises to 74%2%

Senior ultra-Orthodox rabbis instructed their party MKs to support dissolving the Knesset due to failure to pass military draft exemption legislation, increasing pressure on the coalition and likelihood of early elections.

Coalition whip signals election likely between September 8 and October 20

July 31 rises to 76%2%

In early June 2026, coalition whip Ofir Katz indicated that elections would be held between September 8 and October 20, solidifying the timeframe for early elections. This statement helped stabilize market expectations around the July 31 election outcome.

Political commentators predict Israeli election likely in early September

June 15 plunges to 0%16%

Commentators and analysts indicated that the election would most likely be held in early September, within the window set by the dissolution bill. This influenced market prices, particularly lowering the probability of the June 15 election date to zero.

Netanyahu's Likud confirms he will run for re-election despite Trump's doubts

Following U.S. President Donald Trump's public doubts about Netanyahu's political future, Netanyahu's Likud party confirmed on June 10, 2026, that he will run for re-election in the upcoming elections scheduled by October. This announcement reaffirmed Netanyahu's intent to maintain leadership amid political and diplomatic challenges.

Trump calls Netanyahu 'fucking crazy' in heated phone call over Lebanon conflict

U.S. President Donald Trump called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu 'fucking crazy' during a tense phone call on June 1, 2026, criticizing Israel's military actions in Lebanon. This publicized dispute highlighted strains in U.S.-Israel relations amid ongoing regional conflicts, adding to the political pressures facing Netanyahu's government.

Coalition whip announces election window between September 8 and October 20

July 31 rises to 72%3%

Coalition whip Ofir Katz stated that the election would be held between September 8 and October 20, 2025, aligning with the dissolution bill's provisions and the preferences of ultra-Orthodox parties, solidifying market expectations for a September election.

Ultra-Orthodox parties push for early September election date amid draft exemption dispute

July 31 jumps to 73%10%

United Torah Judaism and Shas parties advocated for elections in early to mid-September, reflecting internal coalition tensions over military draft exemptions and affecting the timing of the election, which markets priced in as more likely in September.

Prediction markets show 72% chance of Israeli parliament dissolution by July 31

Market data indicated a 72% probability that the Knesset would dissolve by July 31, 2026, reflecting increased confidence following legislative progress and political instability within Netanyahu's coalition. This marked a significant rise from earlier months and influenced trading behavior across outcomes.

Netanyahu coalition controls election timing after dissolution bill advances

July 31 rises to 72%4%

With the dissolution bill advancing, Netanyahu's coalition secured control over the election date, expected between September 8 and October 20, 2026, shaping the political landscape and market expectations for the timing of elections.

Ultra-Orthodox parties push for September 1 election date amid Knesset dissolution

June 30 drops to 35%10%

Ultra-Orthodox factions favored an election date of September 1, aiming to leverage the High Holidays period for electoral advantage. This political positioning influenced market pricing, increasing confidence in elections occurring closer to early September rather than mid or late October.

Attorney General warns of democratic erosion amid judicial overhaul and election timing

June 30 plunges to 31%19%

Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara criticized the coalition’s judicial overhaul and highlighted the political crisis as the Knesset nears dissolution, underscoring the tense political environment influencing election timing debates.

Knesset House Committee unanimously advances dissolution bill

The Knesset House Committee voted 8-0 to advance the dissolution bill, sending it to the plenum for further readings. This procedural step brought Israel closer to formalizing early elections and influenced market pricing for election dates.

Knesset debates draft exemption bill amid dissolution process

July 31 surges to 79%16%

As the dissolution bill progressed, the Knesset held marathon committee meetings to advance controversial legislation including the draft exemption bill, reflecting ongoing tensions within the coalition and affecting election timing speculation.

Political tensions persist as Knesset advances dissolution process

July 31 dips to 75%3%

Despite unanimous votes, political tensions remained high within Netanyahu's coalition, especially over ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions and controversial legislation. These tensions kept market prices volatile but generally supportive of dissolution by late July.

Netanyahu recalculates election strategy amid political and regional challenges

With the Knesset dissolution underway, Netanyahu adjusted his election strategy, acknowledging the possible election dates between September 8 and October 20, 2026, while attempting to influence timing to favor his right-wing bloc's electoral prospects.

Knesset committee advances dissolution bill amid ongoing political crisis

July 31 rises to 74%1%

The Knesset House Committee moved the dissolution bill forward, setting the stage for final votes and formalizing the path to early elections. This procedural progress increased market confidence in the dissolution outcome.

Prime Minister Netanyahu seen outside Knesset amid election preparations

On June 3, 2026, Netanyahu was observed outside the Knesset, signaling ongoing political activity and preparations for the upcoming elections following the dissolution vote. This event underscored the political transition phase and influenced market sentiment on election timing.

Market reacts to increased likelihood of September 30 election date

July 31 jumps to 85%13%

On June 2, 2026, market prices for the July 31 outcome peaked at 85%, reflecting growing confidence that the Knesset would dissolve and elections would be held by late September or early October, consistent with political statements and legislative progress.

Knesset votes to back dissolution bill in first reading, paving way for early elections

Israeli lawmakers voted overwhelmingly to back the dissolution bill in its first reading, setting the stage for early elections between September 8 and October 20, 2026, amid ongoing political fragmentation.

Knesset votes 106-0 to pass first reading of dissolution bill

July 31 rises to 75%4%

Lawmakers voted early Tuesday to approve the first reading of the bill to dissolve parliament, moving Israel closer to early elections between September and October.

Israeli lawmakers back bill to dissolve parliament in first reading

On June 2, 2026, Israeli lawmakers voted in favor of the dissolution bill in its first reading, reinforcing the likelihood of early elections. The bill stipulates elections between September 8 and October 20, 2026, reflecting ongoing political maneuvering over election timing.

Israeli lawmakers pass first reading of bill to dissolve parliament

July 31 rises to 81%3%

The Knesset voted 106-0 in favor of the first reading of the dissolution bill, bringing the country closer to early elections scheduled between September and October.

Knesset passes first reading of bill to dissolve parliament and set early elections

July 31 drops to 75%6%

In an early morning session, the Knesset voted 106-0 to pass the first reading of the dissolution bill, bringing Israel closer to early elections.

Reports confirm election date to be set between September 8 and October 20, 2025

July 31 surges to 84%21%

Media reports confirmed that the election date would be chosen within the window of September 8 to October 20, 2025, aligning with legislative expectations and causing market prices for the July 31 option to stabilize around 76-84%. This clarity reduced uncertainty about the timing of elections.

Coalition fast-tracks controversial bills ahead of Knesset dissolution

July 31 jumps to 79%13%

In early June 2026, the coalition accelerated the passage of several controversial bills, including those on communications reform and the ultra-Orthodox draft exemption, ahead of the expected Knesset dissolution. This legislative push reflected attempts to solidify the coalition's agenda before elections, impacting market perceptions of the dissolution timing.

Knesset dissolution bill nears final approval amid election date debate

July 31 jumps to 86%13%

As the dissolution bill approached final readings, debates intensified over the election date, with September 1 and 15 no longer considered likely, but September 8 still possible. This uncertainty caused market fluctuations, with the July 31 outcome price peaking at 86% then settling at 76%.

Israeli Knesset dissolves amid political crisis linked to war failures

The Knesset voted to dissolve itself amid a political crisis triggered by coalition collapse over ultra-Orthodox conscription exemptions and fallout from ongoing multi-front conflicts, signaling an end to Netanyahu's current government and triggering early elections.

Knesset House Committee approves first reading of dissolution bill

The Knesset House Committee voted to advance the dissolution bill to the plenum, setting the stage for the first reading and solidifying the timeline for early elections.

Knesset coalition advances bill to dissolve parliament in first reading

July 31 jumps to 75%12%

The Knesset coalition advanced the dissolution bill in its first reading with unanimous support, reinforcing the likelihood of early elections between September 8 and October 20, 2025. This legislative progress maintained high market confidence in dissolution by July 31.

Knesset advances dissolution bill in second reading amid coalition tensions

July 31 surges to 79%15%

The bill to dissolve the Knesset passed its second reading with strong support, reinforcing expectations of early elections likely in September. This maintained elevated market prices for the July 31 outcome.

Coalition whip submits bill to dissolve Knesset amid ultra-Orthodox draft bill crisis

July 31 jumps to 68%7%

Coalition whip Ofir Katz submitted a bill to dissolve the Knesset with full coalition backing following a crisis over the ultra-Orthodox draft exemption bill. This move aimed to control the election date and advance the dissolution process, increasing market confidence in early dissolution.

Knesset advances bill to dissolve parliament with unanimous vote

July 31 surges to 76%15%

On June 1, 2026, the Knesset passed the first reading of a bill to dissolve parliament unanimously, reinforcing the move towards early elections. This legislative progress increased market confidence in a September election date, reflected in rising prices for the July 31 outcome.

Analysts project September election after dissolution vote

June 30 surges to 51%35%

Following the May 20 vote, the market shifted sharply toward a June‑30 election date as analysts assessed that the 90‑day period after dissolution made a late‑September/early‑October election more likely, raising the June‑30 odds to 51 %.

Knesset ultra-Orthodox parties favor early September election date amid dissolution talks

July 31 jumps to 72%5%

Ultra-Orthodox parties expressed preference for elections in early September before the High Holidays, influencing market expectations for election timing. This reflected ongoing negotiations and coalition dynamics affecting the dissolution process.

Knesset passes first reading of dissolution bill, moving closer to early elections

The Knesset passed the first reading of the dissolution bill with a 106-0 vote, further advancing the legislative process to dissolve parliament and hold early elections between September 8 and October 20, 2026.

Knesset Dissolution Bill Passes First Reading in 106-0 Vote

July 31 rises to 76%3%

The Knesset voted unanimously in favor of the first reading of the coalition's dissolution bill, moving the country closer to early elections and solidifying the timeline away from June 30.

Knesset passes first reading of dissolution bill with 106-0 vote

The Knesset approved the first reading of the dissolution bill late Monday night, advancing the process of moving the election date up from October 27.

Knesset votes 106-0 in first reading to dissolve parliament, setting election window

July 31 surges to 73%19%

The Knesset passed the first reading of the dissolution bill unanimously, confirming elections will be held between September 8 and October 20, 2025, solidifying the timeline and boosting market confidence in the July 31 outcome.

House Committee clears dissolution bill 8‑0, sending it to the Knesset plenum

July 31 jumps to 67%8%

The Knesset House Committee approved the dissolution bill 8‑0 and sent it to the plenum for its first reading. The unanimous vote signalled strong parliamentary support and pushed market confidence that the bill would pass, lifting the July 31 price to a peak of 87 % on 27 May and stabilising it around 67 % by 8 June.

Israeli lawmakers vote 106-0 to back bill dissolving parliament

The Knesset passed the first reading of the dissolution bill unanimously, advancing the process to move up elections to between September 8 and October 20, 2025, increasing certainty of early elections.

Coalition whip Ofir Katz speaks before Knesset dissolution vote

Ofir Katz, coalition whip, addressed the Knesset ahead of the dissolution vote, emphasizing the coalition's control over the election timing. This event reinforced the likelihood of early elections and influenced market confidence in a dissolution occurring before the October deadline.

Haredi parties reject draft exemption compromise, support Knesset dissolution

July 31 jumps to 80%7%

Ultra-Orthodox parties opposed the government's attempt to retain military service exemptions, instead supporting the dissolution of the Knesset. This political development reinforced the likelihood of early elections, influencing market prices especially for the July 31 date.

Knesset House Committee unanimously advances dissolution bill to plenum for first reading

The Knesset House Committee voted 8-0 to advance the dissolution bill, which was then passed 106-0 in the plenum's first reading, moving the bill closer to final approval and setting the election date window between September 8 and October 20, 2026.

Coalition whip announces election window between September 8 and October 20

July 31 jumps to 75%14%

On June 1, 2026, coalition whip Ofir Katz stated that if the dissolution bill passes, elections would be held between September 8 and October 20, 2025. This clarification narrowed the expected election timing, influencing market prices especially for the July 31 and June 30 outcomes.

Knesset votes 106-0 to advance dissolution bill, moving Israel closer to early elections

On June 1, 2026, the Knesset voted unanimously to advance the dissolution bill to the plenum for further readings, reinforcing the likelihood of early elections between September 8 and October 20, 2026. This step reflects ongoing political instability and the coalition's weakening grip.

Knesset votes 106-0 in favor of first reading of dissolution bill

The Knesset voted 106-0 in favor of the first reading of the coalition bill to dissolve parliament, potentially triggering early elections between September 8 and October 20. This vote reflected broad consensus amid ongoing coalition instability and increased market confidence in early dissolution.

Knesset House Committee votes unanimously to advance dissolution bill

July 31 jumps to 78%12%

The Knesset House Committee voted 8-0 to advance the dissolution legislation, sending it to the plenum for its first official reading.

Attorney-General warns government pushing Israel into 'race to eliminate democratic institutions'

July 31 jumps to 79%13%

Attorney-General Gali Baharav-Miara criticized the government's judicial overhaul and dissolution bill process, highlighting the political crisis. This statement underscored the contentious environment surrounding the dissolution and elections, influencing market sentiment.

Knesset passes first reading of dissolution bill amid political crisis

July 31 jumps to 75%5%

The Knesset passed the first reading of the dissolution bill 106-0 after committee approval, advancing the process toward early elections likely between September 8 and October 20. The ultra-Orthodox parties' revolt over draft legislation was a key factor.

Coalition whip confirms election window between September 8 and October 20

July 31 jumps to 64%9%

Coalition whip Ofir Katz reiterated that elections would be held between September 8 and October 20, 2025, reinforcing market expectations for a late summer to early fall election date and stabilizing prices for July 31 outcome.

Knesset committee and plenum approve first reading of dissolution bill

July 31 surges to 85%21%

The Knesset House Committee and the full plenum approved the first reading of the coalition bill to dissolve parliament, moving the country closer to a September election.

Israeli lawmakers back dissolution bill in first reading with overwhelming support

The Knesset passed the dissolution bill's first reading unanimously, with 106 votes in favor, signaling strong parliamentary consensus to move forward with early elections between September 8 and October 20. This legislative progress reinforced market expectations for elections in that timeframe.

Knesset coalition whip signals election likely between September 8 and October 20

July 31 surges to 79%30%

Coalition whip Ofir Katz indicated that if the dissolution bill passes, elections would likely be held between September 8 and October 20, narrowing the expected election window and influencing market expectations for a September vote.

Knesset House Committee Debates Dissolution Bill and Election Dates

July 31 rises to 66%3%

The Knesset House Committee began formal deliberations on the dissolution bill, leaving the final election date to be settled before the second and third readings.

Knesset House Committee votes 8-0 to advance dissolution bill

July 31 jumps to 72%5%

The Knesset House Committee unanimously approved the legislation to dissolve parliament, sending the bill to the plenum for its first official reading.

Knesset House Committee passes dissolution bill, postpones election date decision

July 31 jumps to 85%9%

The House Committee approved the dissolution bill but postponed deciding on a specific election date, with Shas and UTJ MKs favoring a September election before the High Holy Days.

Knesset coalition whip confirms election window between September 8 and October 20

July 31 jumps to 77%14%

Coalition whip Ofir Katz publicly stated that the election date would be set between September 8 and October 20, reinforcing market expectations for dissolution and early elections within this timeframe, which caused a price surge for the July 31 outcome.

Israeli lawmakers back bill to dissolve parliament in first reading

A large majority of Knesset members voted to back the dissolution bill in its first reading, confirming the legislative path toward early elections between September 8 and October 20. This reinforced market expectations for a July 31 dissolution date.

Ultra-Orthodox leaders reject Netanyahu's attempt to delay Knesset dissolution

July 31 jumps to 81%11%

Despite Prime Minister Netanyahu's efforts to preserve the coalition by resuming discussion of the ultra-Orthodox military conscription bill, ultra-Orthodox leaders remained firm in their decision to dissolve the Knesset, increasing the likelihood of early elections in September or October.

Political uncertainty causes market volatility on Knesset dissolution timing

July 31 plunges to 55%23%

Market prices for the July 31 outcome dropped sharply from 78% to 55%, reflecting uncertainty about the exact election date amid ongoing negotiations and political maneuvering within the coalition and opposition.

Knesset House Committee unanimously advances dissolution bill to plenum

July 31 jumps to 77%6%

On May 29, 2026, the Knesset House Committee voted 8-0 to advance the dissolution bill, reinforcing the legislative momentum toward early elections. This event supported the market's rising confidence in dissolution occurring within the September-October window, particularly boosting the July 31 outcome.

Knesset dissolution bill passes first reading with election window set between Sept 8 and Oct 20

July 31 jumps to 76%14%

The bill stipulates elections will be held between September 8 and October 20, reflecting a compromise amid coalition and ultra-Orthodox party negotiations on election timing.

UN Chief Condemns New Israeli Annexation Measures in West Bank

June 15 plunges to 26%24%

UN Secretary-General António Guterres condemned Israel's land acquisition measures, warning they are eroding the viability of a two-state solution and violating international law.

Knesset House Committee to consider dissolution bill for plenary vote

The Knesset House Committee scheduled to meet on June 1, 2026, to advance the dissolution bill to a first plenum reading, a key procedural step toward final approval and early elections.

Political uncertainty causes market volatility on election timing

July 31 jumps to 77%14%

Market prices for the July 31 outcome fluctuated significantly due to ongoing political negotiations and uncertainty about the exact election date within the September-October window. This reflected market participants' reassessment of the likelihood of dissolution timing.

Ultra-Orthodox parties reject Netanyahu’s attempt to delay elections

July 31 surges to 76%17%

Despite Netanyahu’s efforts to postpone elections until October by reviving the draft exemption bill, ultra-Orthodox parties pushed for early elections in September, increasing uncertainty and causing market volatility.

Dissolution bill sent to Knesset House Committee for election‑date debate

July 31 jumps to 84%14%

The dissolution bill was referred to the Knesset House Committee for debate on the election date. Media reported the committee might set a September date, briefly pushing the “July 31” price to its on‑day high of 84 %.

Knesset advances bill to dissolve itself after Netanyahu's military exemption failure

May 31 plunges to 1%23%

Following Netanyahu's inability to pass a military exemption bill for Haredi yeshiva students, the Knesset moved to dissolve itself, with opposition parties also submitting dissolution bills to capitalize on the political crisis.

Knesset coalition whip signals election window between September 8 and October 20

July 31 surges to 87%17%

Coalition whip Ofir Katz publicly stated on May 27, 2026, that the election would be held between September 8 and October 20, 2025, confirming the expected timeframe and boosting market confidence in a dissolution and election within this window.

Knesset committee advances dissolution bill amid coalition breakdown

The Knesset committee advanced the dissolution bill further, reflecting serious movement towards early elections as coalition fractures deepen over the ultra-Orthodox draft dispute.

Knesset advances dissolution bill in first reading with 106 votes

July 31 surges to 84%32%

The Knesset passed the first reading of the dissolution bill, with lawmakers indicating a preference for elections in September, which solidified the timeline and caused the July 31 option to spike.

Knesset committee discusses election timing amid ultra-Orthodox opposition

Following the bill's advancement, the Knesset House Committee deliberated on the election date, with ultra-Orthodox parties favoring early September elections before the High Holidays. The committee postponed setting a specific date, reflecting ongoing negotiations and political maneuvering.

Knesset advances dissolution bill amid political turmoil

July 31 surges to 72%28%

The Knesset continued advancing the dissolution bill with ongoing debates about election timing. Market prices showed fluctuations reflecting uncertainty between mid-June and late July election dates.

Knesset House Committee to discuss dissolution bill and set election date

Following the preliminary vote to dissolve the Knesset, the Knesset House Committee scheduled discussions to set the election date, which must be at least three months after the bill's final approval. This procedural step is crucial for finalizing the timing of the snap election, expected in September or October 2026.

Knesset Passes First Reading of Bill to Dissolve Parliament

July 31 surges to 73%22%

Lawmakers voted 106-0 in favor of the first reading of the coalition bill to dissolve the Knesset, bringing the country closer to September elections.

Israeli parliament dissolution market surges to 87% on imminent Knesset vote

July 31 surges to 87%17%

Market prices for dissolution by July 31 surged to 87% as the Knesset prepared for a decisive vote on the dissolution bill, reflecting near certainty of early elections before the October deadline.

Ultra‑Orthodox parties argue over early‑September election dates

June 15 plunges to 6%29%

Shas pushed for an election on 15 September while United Torah Judaism favoured 1 September. The intra‑coalition clash raised uncertainty about the exact date, sending the June 15 price down further to 6 % by 7 June as the market favoured the later July 31 scenario.

Knesset House Committee schedules first reading of dissolution bill

The Knesset House Committee scheduled the first reading of the dissolution bill for May 27, 2026, advancing the legislative process toward early elections. This development narrowed the possible election dates, removing September 1 as an option and focusing on dates between September 8 and October 20.

Market reacts to increased likelihood of September 2025 Knesset dissolution

July 31 surges to 82%25%

Following the advancement of the dissolution bill and political statements, market prices for the July 31 outcome surged from 57% to a peak of 82%, reflecting growing confidence in a September election date. The ultra-Orthodox parties' push for early elections influenced this shift.

Knesset passes preliminary reading of dissolution bill

The Knesset passed a preliminary reading of a dissolution bill by a 110-0 vote, with Netanyahu absent, marking a decisive moment in the coalition's collapse and triggering rapid market price movement.

Knesset House Committee sets election date window but delays final decision

July 31 drops to 66%6%

On May 27, 2026, the Knesset House Committee agreed to postpone deciding on a specific election date, with ultra-Orthodox parties favoring early September elections before the High Holy Days. This uncertainty caused market fluctuations in election timing probabilities.

Israeli parliament dissolution bill passes first reading unanimously

July 31 jumps to 78%12%

The Knesset passed the dissolution bill's first reading with 110 votes in favor and none opposed, nearly guaranteeing final passage. This legislative milestone increased market confidence in early elections between September and October 2026, causing a surge in the July 31 outcome price.

Knesset sets June 1 for first reading of dissolution bill

July 31 surges to 87%16%

Coalition whip Ofir Katz announced the first reading of the dissolution bill would take place on 1 June, moving the legislative timetable forward and triggering a further price increase for the July‑31 outcome.

Market reacts to ongoing legislative process for Knesset dissolution

July 31 jumps to 82%10%

Following the initial vote, the bill moved through parliamentary committees and readings amid political jockeying, causing volatility in market prices for the July 31 election date as the timing of elections remained uncertain.

Ultra-Orthodox factions push to dissolve Knesset amid draft dispute

Ultra-Orthodox parties United Torah Judaism and Agudat Yisrael publicly supported dissolving the Knesset due to failure to pass military draft exemption laws, increasing the likelihood of early elections in September 2025.

Knesset passes first reading of bill to dissolve parliament

July 31 surges to 82%25%

Lawmakers voted 106-0 in favor of the first reading of the coalition bill to dissolve the Knesset, bringing the country closer to early elections.

Knesset House Committee fast-tracks dissolution bill to plenary

July 31 surges to 69%25%

The Knesset House Committee approved the dissolution bill for its first reading, sending it immediately to the plenum for a vote and accelerating the timeline.

Knesset House Committee unanimously advances dissolution bill to plenary vote

The Knesset House Committee voted 8-0 to advance the dissolution bill to the full Knesset for a vote, signaling strong institutional support and increasing the likelihood of early elections in September or October.

Knesset committee sends dissolution bill to plenary vote as election dates are debated

July 31 surges to 87%43%

The Knesset House Committee advanced the dissolution bill to the plenary, narrowing down potential election dates and excluding early September options.

Netanyahu attempts to advance Haredi draft exemption bill to avoid early elections

July 31 jumps to 62%13%

In a bid to appease ultra-Orthodox partners and delay the dissolution process, Netanyahu placed the controversial draft exemption bill back on the Knesset committee agenda.

Political factions debate election timing amid ultra-Orthodox draft exemption dispute

June 15 plunges to 26%24%

On May 26, 2026, political discussions intensified over the election date, with ultra-Orthodox parties pushing for early September elections during the High Holidays, while coalition leaders sought to delay until October. This uncertainty caused volatile market price swings for the June 15 and July 31 outcomes.

Ultra-Orthodox parties reject coalition's draft exemption bill, support Knesset dissolution

July 31 surges to 70%21%

Ultra-Orthodox parties opposed the coalition's attempt to pass a draft exemption bill, instead supporting the dissolution of the Knesset. This political development increased the likelihood of early elections in September, reflected in a sharp rise in market prices for the July 31 election date.

Knesset House Committee Approves Dissolution Bill for First Reading

June 15 plunges to 27%23%

The Knesset House Committee approved the dissolution bill on Monday morning, referring it immediately to the plenum for its first reading, which took place early Tuesday.

Haredi parties push for early elections amid draft exemption dispute

July 31 surges to 72%28%

Haredi factions, led by spiritual leader Rabbi Dov Lando, instructed their MKs to support dissolving the Knesset to force progress on the draft exemption law. This increased pressure on the government and raised the probability of elections in early September 2025.

Market uncertainty grows as election date remains unset after dissolution bill advances

July 31 drops to 41%8%

By late May 2026, despite the bill's advancement, the exact election date remained undecided, causing market volatility and price declines for July 31 and June 15 dissolution options. Political maneuvering and negotiations continued, affecting market confidence in the timing of dissolution.

Netanyahu revives Haredi draft exemption bill amid coalition collapse

June 15 drops to 38%12%

Prime Minister Netanyahu attempted to delay early elections by reviving the ultra-Orthodox draft exemption bill, but the ultra-Orthodox parties rejected the proposal and pushed for dissolution. This political tension caused market volatility and shifted probabilities for election timing.

Market reacts to ongoing uncertainty over exact election date after Knesset dissolution vote

July 31 surges to 84%18%

Following the dissolution vote, market prices fluctuated as political actors negotiated the exact election date within the September 8 to October 20 window, reflecting uncertainty about the timing of elections.

Political tensions rise over ultra-Orthodox military exemptions amid election talks

July 31 jumps to 61%12%

In late May 2026, disputes over ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions intensified, with key religious leaders urging support for Knesset dissolution. This political turmoil contributed to market volatility and increased expectations for early elections in September.

Knesset advances dissolution bill amid ongoing coalition tensions

Following the preliminary vote, the Knesset House Committee voted 8-0 to advance the dissolution bill, moving the process closer to final approval and early elections, reflecting deepening coalition instability.

Political commentators predict early September elections amid ongoing negotiations

July 31 surges to 66%17%

Following the dissolution vote, political commentators and coalition members indicated that elections would likely be held between September 8 and October 20, with ultra-Orthodox parties favoring early September. This speculation influenced market prices, especially increasing the probability of a July 31 election date.

Knesset advances bill to dissolve parliament with no set election date

On May 25, 2026, the Knesset advanced the dissolution bill unanimously, but no election date was set. The bill's progress increased market expectations for early elections, particularly for the July 31 date, as the political crisis deepened.

Ultra-Orthodox parties push for early September election date amid dissolution talks

June 15 plunges to 30%20%

Ultra-Orthodox parties, key coalition members, advocated for elections in early September to coincide with religious holidays, influencing market shifts favoring a June 30 or June 15 election date probability drop.

MKs unanimously advance bill to dissolve Knesset amid Haredi revolt

July 31 surges to 74%22%

Over 105 MKs voted to disband parliament due to ultra-Orthodox opposition to military service exemptions, with coalition whip indicating elections would be held between September 8 and October 20. This consensus vote solidified the dissolution process and influenced market prices upward for later election dates.

Netanyahu coalition files bill to dissolve Knesset amid draft crisis

July 31 surges to 70%21%

Netanyahu’s coalition submitted a bill to dissolve the Knesset, aiming to control the timing of early elections amid ultra-Orthodox anger over military draft exemptions. This move caused a sharp rise in market prices for dissolution by July 31, reflecting increased certainty of early elections.

Ultra-Orthodox parties reject Netanyahu's draft exemption proposal, support Knesset dissolution

July 31 surges to 70%21%

The ultra-Orthodox parties opposed Netanyahu's attempt to delay elections by reintroducing draft exemption legislation, instead backing the dissolution bill. This political stance increased the likelihood of early elections, impacting market prices positively for later election dates.

Ultra-Orthodox parties reject coalition's draft exemption proposal

July 31 jumps to 73%6%

Ultra-Orthodox factions opposed Netanyahu's attempt to delay elections by reintroducing draft exemption legislation, increasing the likelihood of early elections and impacting market prices for the July 31 outcome.

Knesset House Committee advances dissolution bill unanimously

The Knesset House Committee voted 8-0 to advance the dissolution bill to the plenum for its first reading, signaling continued progress toward early elections. This procedural step reinforced market expectations of Knesset dissolution by June 30.

Coalition whip says election window will stay between 8 Sept and 20 Oct

June 15 plunges to 33%17%

Katz announced that the coalition would try to keep the election window between 8 September and 20 October, calming fears of an immediate September vote and causing the June 15 market price to fall sharply from 50 % to the low‑30s as traders reassessed timing.

Knesset House Committee unanimously advances dissolution bill

July 31 surges to 70%21%

On May 25, 2026, the Knesset House Committee voted 8-0 to advance the dissolution bill to the plenum for a first reading, reinforcing the timeline for elections between September 8 and October 20, 2025, and increasing market confidence in dissolution.

Ultra-Orthodox parties push for Knesset dissolution amid draft exemption dispute

July 31 jumps to 69%10%

Ultra-Orthodox factions, frustrated with the government's failure to pass draft exemption laws, publicly supported dissolving the Knesset, increasing pressure on the coalition and raising the likelihood of early elections in September.

Netanyahu and ultra-Orthodox factions jostle over election timing amid dissolution process

July 31 dips to 66%4%

Political insiders reported ongoing power struggles between Netanyahu and ultra-Orthodox coalition partners over legislation and election timing, with ultra-Orthodox favoring early September elections. This uncertainty caused market volatility in dissolution date probabilities.

Haredi factions back Knesset dissolution after Netanyahu fails to pass conscription law

Sources indicate that despite initial pressure, Haredi parties ultimately backed the dissolution of the Knesset, with Netanyahu's coalition having submitted its own bill to control the process.

Knesset dissolution stalls as ultra-Orthodox parties yield to Netanyahu on election timing

May 31 plunges to 2%22%

Despite a preliminary vote to dissolve the Knesset, no committee discussion was scheduled to advance the bill, with ultra-Orthodox parties inclined to accept Netanyahu's preferred October election date, causing a sharp drop in May 31 dissolution probability.

Ultra-Orthodox parties back down on Knesset dissolution push

Sources in Haredi parties told Haaretz that the move to dissolve the Knesset is unlikely, indicating the ultra-Orthodox parties had yielded to Netanyahu's pressure to avoid a political showdown.

Knesset dissolution stalls as ultra-Orthodox parties yield to Netanyahu

July 31 jumps to 84%14%

Despite the preliminary vote to dissolve the Knesset, no committee discussion was scheduled to advance the legislation, increasing the likelihood that elections would be held on the original October 27 date, with ultra-Orthodox parties inclined to accept Netanyahu's timeline.

Knesset dissolution bill moves to committee to set election date

June 30 surges to 56%44%

Following the unanimous vote, the bill moved to committee where the election date would be set, increasing market confidence in dissolution by June 30 and reducing likelihood of May 31 dissolution.

Ultra-Orthodox parties reject coalition's draft exemption bill, push for early elections

July 31 jumps to 76%6%

Ultra-Orthodox parties opposed the coalition's attempt to postpone elections by reviving the draft exemption bill, instead supporting the dissolution of the Knesset and early elections in September. This political deadlock increased market confidence in early dissolution, especially for the July 31 outcome.

Preliminary Knesset vote passes to dissolve parliament, setting stage for early elections

July 31 surges to 69%20%

The Knesset passed a preliminary vote to dissolve itself with overwhelming support, driven by ultra-Orthodox parties' loss of trust in Netanyahu over military exemption legislation, significantly increasing market prices for July 31 dissolution.

Speculation on election dates narrows to September 1 or October 27

June 30 surges to 38%23%

Following the dissolution vote, political discussions focused on possible election dates, with September 1 and October 27 emerging as the most realistic options, influencing market expectations for the timing of elections.

Knesset dissolution bill passes preliminary reading 110-0

The Knesset passed a preliminary reading of a dissolution bill by a 110-0 vote, with Netanyahu absent, marking a decisive moment in the coalition's collapse and triggering rapid market price movement.

MKs unanimously advance bill to dissolve Knesset amid Haredi revolt

July 31 jumps to 57%13%

Over 105 MKs voted to disband parliament amid ultra-Orthodox opposition to military draft exemption legislation. The coalition whip indicated elections would be held between September 8 and October 20, reinforcing the timeline for early elections.

Opposition submits dissolution bill to counter Netanyahu's move

Opposition leader Benny Gantz and MK Pnina Tamano-Shata introduced a dissolution bill to challenge Netanyahu's attempt to control the dissolution process and timing of elections.

Israeli parliament advances bill to dissolve Knesset amid coalition breakdown

July 31 dips to 66%4%

Following the preliminary vote, the bill to dissolve the Knesset moved to committee review. The coalition breakdown over military conscription exemptions intensified, with opposition parties preparing for early elections. This development maintained high market expectations for dissolution by July 31.

Political commentators predict September election following Knesset dissolution

June 30 plunges to 32%27%

Following the dissolution vote, analysts and media widely predicted elections would likely occur in early to mid-September 2025, reflecting market confidence in a September 15 or 30 election date rather than later October.

Knesset votes 110-0 in favor of preliminary dissolution bill

June 30 drops to 57%10%

Lawmakers voted overwhelmingly in a preliminary reading to move the dissolution legislation forward, with the bill now heading to committee where an election date would be agreed upon.

Knesset votes unanimously in preliminary reading to dissolve itself

The Israeli Knesset approved a bill in a preliminary reading to dissolve itself with 110 votes in favor and none against, marking a critical step toward early elections. The bill now proceeds to committee and further readings before final dissolution and election date setting.

Israeli MPs vote unanimously to dissolve Knesset, paving way for potential early elections

July 31 surges to 77%28%

Israeli MPs voted unanimously to dissolve the Knesset, opening the path to potential early elections amid fractures in the governing coalition. The trigger was a dispute over legislation to exempt ultra-Orthodox men from mandatory military service, a central coalition demand. The election timing remains uncertain but is expected before the October 27 deadline.

Ultra-Orthodox factions push to dissolve Knesset amid coalition crisis

June 30 surges to 55%35%

The ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party announced its intention to dissolve the Knesset due to the coalition's failure to pass legislation exempting their community from mandatory military service. This move increased the likelihood of early elections and contributed to the dissolution bill's advancement.

Knesset passes preliminary vote 110-0 to dissolve itself, moving closer to early elections

July 31 jumps to 57%8%

The Knesset approved a bill in a preliminary reading to dissolve itself with unanimous support from 110 lawmakers, marking a critical step toward early elections. The bill must still pass through committee and three readings before becoming law, with the election date to be set by the Knesset House Committee no earlier than 90 days after final passage.

Knesset approves preliminary reading of bill to dissolve itself

June 30 drops to 46%13%

The Israeli parliament voted to approve the preliminary reading of the bill to dissolve the Knesset, officially starting the legislative process for early elections.

Knesset approves dissolution bill in preliminary reading, 110‑0

July 31 surges to 70%21%

The Knesset held the preliminary reading on the dissolution bill and approved it 110‑0. The unanimous vote confirmed that the 25th Knesset would be dissolved, causing a sharp rise in the market’s “July 31” price (up to ~70 %) as the probability of an early election before the October 27 deadline climbed sharply.

Opposition MKs submit dissolution bills amid coalition collapse

July 31 surges to 69%20%

Opposition parties submitted their own bills to dissolve the Knesset, capitalizing on the ultra-Orthodox parties' push for dissolution and the coalition's lack of majority, intensifying pressure on the government.

Israeli Knesset unanimously advances bill to dissolve parliament

July 31 surges to 69%20%

On May 20, 2026, over 105 MKs voted to advance a bill to dissolve the Knesset amid coalition tensions and ultra-Orthodox opposition to military draft exemptions. This move set the stage for early elections likely between September 8 and October 20, 2025, causing a sharp rise in market prices for the July 31 election outcome.

Israeli parliament votes overwhelmingly to advance bill dissolving Knesset

The Knesset passed a preliminary vote 110-0 to advance the dissolution bill, signaling near-unanimous support for early elections. This vote was a critical step in the legislative process, increasing market confidence that the Knesset would dissolve and elections would be held between September 8 and October 20, 2025.

Israeli parliament votes unanimously to advance bill dissolving Knesset

The Knesset voted 106-0 in favor of advancing the dissolution bill, signaling strong parliamentary support for early elections. The bill's advancement increased market confidence in a September-October election window, reflecting political consensus on the need for dissolution.

Knesset passes bill to dissolve parliament, setting stage for early elections

The bill passed its preliminary reading with unanimous support, moving to the House Committee for further consideration. This legislative progress was a key milestone, confirming the likelihood of early elections and influencing market pricing toward a high probability of dissolution.

Israeli parliament approves preliminary reading of bill to dissolve itself

June 30 surges to 62%21%

The Knesset voted 110-0 in favor of a preliminary reading of the government-backed bill to dissolve parliament, signaling a major step toward early elections.

Israeli Knesset Approves Preliminary Bill for Dissolution in 110-0 Vote

July 31 surges to 71%22%

The Knesset voted unanimously in a preliminary reading to dissolve itself, paving the way for early elections and causing a major shift in market expectations.

Israel's parliament approves dissolution bill, paving way for September election

July 31 jumps to 57%8%

The Knesset passed a bill to dissolve itself, potentially bringing forward the next national election to September.

Knesset overwhelmingly approves dissolution bill in preliminary reading

July 31 surges to 70%26%

The Knesset voted 110-0 in a preliminary reading to advance the bill to dissolve parliament, officially starting the legislative process toward early elections.

Knesset overwhelmingly passes preliminary reading of bill to dissolve itself

July 31 surges to 71%27%

The Israeli parliament voted 110-0 in a preliminary reading to advance the dissolution bill, setting the stage for early elections in September or October.

Israeli Knesset Approves Preliminary Bill to Dissolve Itself

June 15 plunges to 32%18%

The Knesset voted 110-0 in a preliminary reading to approve the dissolution bill, marking the first formal legislative step toward early elections. This event caused a massive shift in the market, driving down the probability of a June 15 dissolution while boosting the July 31 and June 30 options as the timeline for subsequent readings became clearer.

Israeli Knesset Approves Preliminary Bill for Dissolution in 110-0 Vote

June 30 rises to 57%1%

The Knesset voted unanimously in a preliminary reading to advance the dissolution bill, signaling a major step toward early elections and causing a massive shift in the market.

Ultra-Orthodox parties push for early elections amid coalition collapse

Ultra-Orthodox factions, key coalition partners, declared loss of trust in Netanyahu and supported the dissolution bill, accelerating the collapse of the governing coalition and increasing the likelihood of early elections before the original October date.

Israeli Knesset Unanimously Approves Preliminary Bill to Dissolve Itself

July 31 surges to 68%19%

The Knesset voted 110-0 in a preliminary reading to dissolve parliament, starting the formal process toward early elections, which are expected to be held in September or October.

Knesset overwhelmingly approves preliminary bill for its dissolution

June 30 dips to 50%4%

The Israeli parliament voted 110-0 in a preliminary reading to dissolve itself, officially starting the legislative process toward early elections.

Knesset votes to dissolve parliament in preliminary reading

May 31 plunges to 1%23%

Lawmakers voted 110-0 in favor of a preliminary reading of a government-backed bill to dissolve the Knesset, marking a decisive step toward early elections amid coalition tensions over military conscription exemptions.

Knesset passes preliminary vote to dissolve itself in 110-0 decision

July 31 jumps to 57%13%

The Knesset voted unanimously in a preliminary reading to dissolve itself, initiating the legislative process for early elections and causing a major surge in market expectations.

Opposition and coalition leaders acknowledge government nearing end amid Knesset dissolution

July 31 surges to 72%23%

Following the dissolution vote, opposition leaders called it the beginning of the end for Netanyahu's government, while coalition members acknowledged the collapse. This political acknowledgment further solidified market expectations for early elections.

Coalition fast-tracks controversial legislation ahead of Knesset dissolution

July 31 surges to 72%23%

In the days leading to the dissolution vote, the coalition rushed several controversial bills through committees to pass initial readings before the Knesset dissolves, reflecting political urgency and instability that influenced market sentiment.

First reading of dissolution bill lifts odds of Knesset breakup

June 30 surges to 59%45%

The same day the dissolution bill passed its first reading, the market’s June 30 outcome jumped from 14 % to 59 % as traders priced in a high probability that the Knesset would be dissolved before the October 27 deadline.

Israeli parliament votes to advance bill to dissolve itself

The Knesset voted 106-0 to advance a bill to dissolve parliament, initiating the process for early elections likely between September 8 and October 20, 2026. This vote marked a critical step toward ending the current government amid coalition tensions and security concerns, significantly impacting market expectations for dissolution by June 30 and June 15.

Israeli parliament approves bill to dissolve itself, election date pending

July 31 jumps to 62%13%

Following the Knesset vote to dissolve itself, political commentators indicated elections would likely be held in early September or by late October, reflecting uncertainty about the exact timing. This news influenced market prices, especially for the July 31 outcome, as investors weighed the probability of an earlier election date.

Opposition leaders denounce government as Knesset moves to dissolve

Opposition figures condemned the government as it neared dissolution, framing the upcoming elections as a referendum on the current administration's handling of security and governance. This political rhetoric heightened market volatility and influenced price swings across all outcomes.

Political uncertainty rises amid ongoing conflicts and election timing debate

With Israel engaged in multiple conflicts and political instability, debates over election timing intensified, affecting market perceptions of the likelihood of dissolution by June 15 and June 30. The ultra-Orthodox parties' positions on military exemptions further complicated coalition stability.

Knesset unanimously approves preliminary bill to dissolve parliament

The Knesset voted 110-0 in favor of a preliminary reading of the dissolution bill, advancing the process toward early elections. The bill did not set an election date but allowed for elections between September 8 and October 20, 2026.

Israeli parliament votes unanimously to dissolve itself, setting election window

July 31 surges to 87%38%

On May 20, 2026, the Knesset voted unanimously to dissolve itself, with coalition whip Ofir Katz stating elections would be held between September 8 and October 20, 2025. This decisive vote caused a sharp market reaction, increasing the probability of dissolution by late July.

Israeli Knesset passes preliminary vote to dissolve itself

June 15 drops to 38%12%

The Knesset voted unanimously 110-0 in a preliminary reading to dissolve itself, officially starting the process toward early elections and making a June 15 dissolution highly unlikely.

Israeli Knesset advances dissolution bill, setting early elections in motion

July 31 rises to 73%3%

Following the unanimous preliminary vote, the Knesset moved the dissolution bill to committee stages, confirming the path toward early elections likely before October 27. This legislative progress further increased market confidence in dissolution by July 31.

Coalition's bill to dissolve Knesset passes preliminary reading amid haredi draft bill crisis

July 31 surges to 87%30%

The coalition fast-tracked the dissolution bill amid a crisis over the ultra-Orthodox draft exemption, with the bill's passage signaling a move to slightly earlier elections than the scheduled October 27, 2025 date. Opposition parties welcomed the bill as a step toward ending the current government.

Knesset Approves Preliminary Bill for Dissolution in 110-0 Vote

June 30 rises to 62%3%

The Knesset overwhelmingly approved a preliminary reading of the dissolution bill, officially starting the legislative process toward early elections.

Knesset dissolution bill advances, raising prospect of September election

July 31 surges to 87%30%

Following the unanimous preliminary vote, Israeli lawmakers moved the dissolution bill to committee stage, setting the stage for early elections likely in September. The bill's progress reflected political instability and coalition tensions, especially over the ultra-Orthodox draft dispute.

Opposition calls dissolution vote 'beginning of the end' for Netanyahu government

July 31 surges to 87%30%

Opposition leaders hailed the dissolution bill vote as a critical step toward ending Netanyahu's government, citing failures related to the October 7 attacks and ongoing conflicts. This political rhetoric heightened market expectations for early elections and government change.

Knesset dissolution bill moves to committee to set election date

June 30 surges to 56%36%

Following the unanimous vote to advance the dissolution bill, it moved to the Knesset committee to agree on an election date, with the final approval pending. This procedural step was crucial in formalizing the path to early elections, influencing market prices upward.

Knesset approves preliminary reading of bill to dissolve itself

June 15 jumps to 51%6%

The Knesset voted 110-0 in a preliminary reading to approve the coalition's bill to dissolve parliament, officially starting the legislative process to move up the national elections.

Israeli parliament votes to dissolve itself, advancing early elections

The Knesset voted overwhelmingly to advance a bill to dissolve parliament, initiating the process for early elections to be held within 90 days, likely before the October 27 deadline. This marked a critical step toward ending the current government amid political instability and security challenges.

Israeli Lawmakers Vote to Advance Bill to Dissolve Parliament

June 30 drops to 50%6%

The Knesset voted 110-0 in favor of a preliminary reading of the government-backed bill to dissolve parliament, setting the stage for early elections.

Israeli lawmakers unanimously advance bill to dissolve Knesset, no election date set

The bill to dissolve the Knesset passed its first reading unanimously, signaling broad consensus to end the current parliament. However, no election date was set, creating uncertainty about the timing of the vote, which must occur by October 27 at the latest.

Knesset votes overwhelmingly to dissolve parliament, advancing early elections

July 31 surges to 69%20%

The Knesset voted 110-0 in favor of a preliminary reading of a government-backed bill to dissolve itself, moving the country toward early elections before the scheduled October 27 date, though the exact election date remained to be set by committee.

Knesset unanimously approves preliminary vote to dissolve parliament

The Knesset passed a bill 110-0 in a preliminary reading to dissolve itself, initiating the legislative process for early elections likely between September and October 2026, amid coalition crisis over ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions.

Israeli Knesset Approves Preliminary Reading of Dissolution Bill

July 31 surges to 73%24%

The Israeli parliament voted overwhelmingly in a preliminary reading to dissolve itself, officially starting the legislative process to trigger early elections.

Israeli parliament votes to advance bill to dissolve itself

July 31 plunges to 66%18%

The Knesset voted overwhelmingly to advance a bill to dissolve parliament, paving the way for early elections likely between September and October 2025, reflecting political pressure on Netanyahu's coalition.

Knesset passes preliminary vote to dissolve itself

June 30 rises to 55%1%

Lawmakers voted 110-0 in favor of a preliminary reading of the bill to dissolve the Knesset, officially starting the process to move the election date forward.

Knesset votes to dissolve itself in preliminary reading of dissolution bill

May 31 plunges to 2%22%

Lawmakers voted overwhelmingly 110-0 in favor of a preliminary reading of a government-backed bill to dissolve the Knesset, potentially triggering early elections if ultimately passed into law.

Knesset Passes Preliminary Reading of Dissolution Bill in 110-0 Vote

June 30 rises to 57%1%

The government-backed bill to dissolve the Knesset passed its preliminary reading unanimously, signaling that early elections in September were highly likely and reducing the probability of a June 30 election.

Israeli parliament votes overwhelmingly to advance bill dissolving Knesset

July 31 surges to 70%21%

On May 20, 2026, the Knesset voted 106-0 to advance a bill to dissolve itself, initiating the process for early elections. This vote reflected broad consensus amid coalition tensions, especially over ultra-Orthodox draft legislation, and marked a critical step toward moving elections earlier than the scheduled October 27 date.

Knesset dissolution bill passes preliminary reading unanimously

The dissolution bill passed its preliminary reading with unanimous support, signaling strong parliamentary consensus to dissolve the Knesset and hold early elections, despite no election date being set yet.

Ultra-Orthodox parties call for Knesset dissolution amid draft dispute

Ultra-Orthodox parties, key coalition members, called for the dissolution of the Knesset due to failure to pass military draft exemption legislation, accelerating the move towards early elections.

Opposition parties support Knesset dissolution bill

Opposition parties also submitted bills to dissolve the Knesset, signaling broad political consensus for early elections and increasing pressure on the ruling coalition.

Israeli Knesset Passes Preliminary Vote to Dissolve Itself

July 31 surges to 69%20%

The Knesset voted overwhelmingly in a preliminary reading to advance the bill to dissolve itself, setting the stage for early elections and causing major price movements across both the June 30 and July 31 outcomes.

Unanimous Knesset vote seals early‑election path

May 31 drops to 4%8%

The overwhelming 110‑0 vote on May 20 confirmed the dissolution path, driving the May‑31 “Yes” price down from 12 % on May 14 to 4 % by the end of the window as the market priced in an early September‑October election.

Knesset votes unanimously to advance dissolution bill

The Knesset held a preliminary reading on the dissolution bill, voting 110‑0 in favour. The unanimous vote confirmed that the parliament would move toward dissolution, causing the June‑30 “Yes” price to stay high (~59 %) and the May‑31 “Yes” price to fall to around 4 %.

Coalition whip confirms election window between September 8 and October 20

July 31 surges to 73%24%

Following the dissolution vote, coalition whip Ofir Katz stated that elections would be held between September 8 and October 20, reinforcing market expectations for early elections and influencing price volatility.

Knesset Approves Bill to Dissolve Itself in Preliminary Reading

June 30 jumps to 55%8%

The Israeli parliament voted overwhelmingly in a preliminary reading to approve the bill to dissolve itself, setting the stage for early elections.

Israeli Knesset unanimously votes to advance bill dissolving parliament

The Knesset voted 110-0 in favor of a preliminary reading of a government-backed bill to dissolve itself, marking a critical step toward early elections amid coalition tensions over ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions. This vote significantly increased market expectations for dissolution and early elections.

Israeli lawmakers advance bill to dissolve parliament amid political crisis

June 30 surges to 56%36%

Amid coalition instability and Netanyahu's legal challenges, Israeli lawmakers advanced a bill to dissolve parliament, moving the country closer to snap elections. The bill's advancement reflected broad political consensus on ending the current Knesset term early.

Knesset passes preliminary reading of bill to dissolve itself

July 31 surges to 68%19%

The Israeli parliament voted overwhelmingly in a preliminary reading to approve the coalition-backed bill to dissolve the Knesset, setting the stage for early elections.

Knesset unanimously advances bill to dissolve parliament amid ultra-Orthodox draft dispute

July 31 jumps to 55%6%

Over 105 MKs voted to disband parliament as ultra-Orthodox parties revolted over military service exemptions, setting election dates between September 8 and October 20. This solidified the dissolution process and influenced market pricing for the July 31 outcome.

Knesset approves bill to dissolve itself, setting early election window

July 15 drops to 56%9%

The Knesset approved a bill to dissolve itself, with elections to be held between September 8 and October 20, 2025. This formalized the dissolution and election timeline, impacting market expectations for the July 15 and July 31 outcomes.

Israeli parliament advances bill to dissolve itself and trigger early elections

The Knesset voted overwhelmingly to advance a bill to dissolve itself, potentially triggering early elections between September 8 and October 20, 2025. The vote followed pressure from ultra-Orthodox parties and coalition fractures over military conscription exemptions.

Knesset votes 110-0 in preliminary reading to dissolve parliament, advancing early election process

July 31 surges to 71%22%

Israeli lawmakers gave near-unanimous support to a bill dissolving the Knesset, marking a key step toward early elections likely to be held between September and October 2026. This reflected the collapse of Netanyahu's coalition due to the ultra-Orthodox draft dispute and increased market confidence in dissolution.

Israeli Knesset expected to dissolve today, paving way for early elections

July 31 surges to 71%22%

Ahead of the scheduled vote, all other bills were removed from the agenda, signaling focus on the dissolution bill. The coalition was strained by failure to pass conscription exemption legislation for Orthodox yeshiva students, intensifying political crisis and pushing toward dissolution.

Israeli Knesset votes overwhelmingly to advance bill dissolving parliament

July 31 surges to 87%38%

Israeli lawmakers voted 106-0 to advance a bill to dissolve the Knesset, initiating the process for early elections likely between September and October 2025. This reflected coalition instability amid ultra-Orthodox draft disputes and political pressure on Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Coalition fast-tracks controversial bills ahead of Knesset dissolution vote

July 31 surges to 80%20%

Ahead of the dissolution vote, the coalition rushed several controversial bills through committees to ensure legislative continuity post-dissolution. This legislative activity underscored the urgency and political maneuvering surrounding the Knesset's dissolution.

Netanyahu-Trump meeting on Iran talks and Gaza ceasefire

June 30 jumps to 55%14%

Netanyahu met with U.S. President Trump to discuss Iran negotiations and Gaza ceasefire progress, reinforcing diplomatic coordination and possibly stabilizing political conditions, which corresponded with a rise in market confidence for the June 30 outcome.

Knesset approves preliminary reading of dissolution bill

July 31 surges to 87%43%

The Knesset voted overwhelmingly in favor of a preliminary reading of the bill to dissolve itself, setting the stage for early elections and driving up the probability of a July 31 dissolution.

Knesset votes overwhelmingly to advance dissolution bill

June 30 jumps to 58%8%

Lawmakers voted 110-0 in favor of a preliminary reading of a government-backed bill to dissolve the Knesset, potentially triggering early elections if ultimately passed into law.

Israel's parliament votes to dissolve itself, paving way for early elections

July 31 surges to 69%20%

The Knesset's vote to dissolve itself on May 20, 2026, triggered a process to set an election date likely in early September or by late October, reflecting political instability and Netanyahu's weakened coalition. This event was pivotal in shifting market expectations toward earlier election dates.

Israeli Knesset unanimously advances bill to dissolve parliament

The Knesset voted 106-0 in favor of the first reading of a bill to dissolve parliament, moving closer to early elections. The bill does not set an election date but opens the possibility of elections between September 8 and October 20, 2026. This vote reflected the coalition's loss of ultra-Orthodox support and growing political instability.

Coalition's bill to dissolve Knesset passes preliminary reading amid haredi draft bill crisis

The coalition fast-tracked the dissolution bill amid a crisis over the ultra-Orthodox draft exemption bill. The bill's passage marked a significant step toward moving the election date forward from the scheduled October 27, reflecting the coalition's internal fractures.

Coalition whip Ofir Katz addresses Knesset ahead of dissolution vote

July 31 rises to 51%2%

Coalition whip Ofir Katz spoke in the Knesset supporting the dissolution bill, emphasizing the government's control over the election timing and the addition of soldiers to the IDF. This reinforced market confidence in the dissolution process progressing.

Knesset unanimously passes preliminary reading of bill to dissolve parliament

July 31 jumps to 49%5%

Israeli lawmakers voted 110-0 in favor of a preliminary reading of the bill to dissolve the Knesset, officially starting the legislative process to move the election date forward.

Opposition and coalition lawmakers submit multiple bills to dissolve Knesset

On May 20, 2026, multiple bills to dissolve the Knesset were submitted by both opposition and coalition members, reflecting broad political consensus on early elections. This legislative activity contributed to market movements favoring dissolution around late June.

Coalition submits dissolution bill to control election timing

The coalition submitted its own dissolution legislation to control the election process and prevent the opposition from dictating timing, a classic Netanyahu political maneuver.

Knesset votes to dissolve itself amid coalition crisis

The Knesset advanced a bill to dissolve itself in May 2026, opening the possibility of snap elections months before the scheduled October 2026 vote.

Knesset votes 110-0 to advance dissolution bill

July 31 surges to 72%23%

The Knesset voted unanimously to advance the government-backed bill to dissolve parliament, signaling a near-certain early election. The bill did not set an election date but started the formal process, causing a significant market price increase for the July 31 outcome.

Knesset votes overwhelmingly to advance dissolution bill

July 31 surges to 78%15%

On May 20, 2026, the Knesset voted 110-0 in favor of advancing the bill to dissolve parliament, a critical step toward early elections. The bill did not set an election date but indicated elections would be held at least three months after final approval, increasing market confidence in an earlier election date.

Israeli Knesset Votes Unanimously in Preliminary Reading to Dissolve Parliament

July 31 surges to 72%23%

Lawmakers voted 110-0 in favor of a preliminary reading of a bill to dissolve the Knesset, setting the stage for early elections and causing a major shift in market expectations.

Coalition fast-tracks dissolution bill amid ultra-Orthodox draft bill crisis

The coalition accelerated the legislative process for the dissolution bill in May 2026 amid a crisis over the ultra-Orthodox draft exemption bill. This move aimed to control the election timing and manage internal coalition disputes, influencing market expectations for early elections.

Knesset advances preliminary dissolution bill with unanimous support

May 31 plunges to 2%22%

Lawmakers voted 110-0 in favor of a preliminary reading of a government-backed bill to dissolve the Knesset, potentially triggering early elections if ultimately passed into law.

Knesset dissolution bill passes preliminary reading with overwhelming support

July 31 surges to 76%27%

The coalition's bill to dissolve the Knesset passed its preliminary reading with 110 votes in favor and none against, marking a critical step toward early elections and reflecting the political crisis over the Haredi draft bill.

Israeli MPs vote to dissolve Knesset amid coalition fractures

July 31 surges to 76%27%

The unanimous vote to dissolve the Knesset was driven by coalition fractures over the ultra-Orthodox military exemption bill, paving the way for potential early elections and causing market prices for later dissolution dates to rise sharply.

Coalition submits bill to dissolve Knesset amid ultra-Orthodox conscription crisis

The ruling coalition, led by Netanyahu, submitted its own bill to dissolve the Knesset on May 13, 2026, amid a crisis over military conscription exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews. The bill passed its first reading on May 20, 2026, with unanimous support, signaling the coalition's attempt to control the timing of early elections.

Opposition and coalition lawmakers submit multiple bills to dissolve Knesset

July 31 surges to 76%27%

Following the UTJ announcement, multiple opposition MKs submitted bills to dissolve parliament, but the coalition-backed bill gained unanimous support, indicating a coordinated move to control election timing and affecting market expectations for early dissolution.

Israeli Knesset votes unanimously to dissolve itself, paving way for early elections

July 31 surges to 84%35%

On May 20, 2026, the Knesset passed a bill to dissolve itself with a 106-0 vote, initiating the process for early elections to be held between September 8 and October 20, 2025. This marked a critical step toward ending the current parliamentary term early amid coalition tensions, significantly increasing market confidence in dissolution by July 31.

Israeli parliament advances bill to dissolve itself amid ultra-Orthodox coalition crisis

July 31 surges to 84%35%

The bill to dissolve the Knesset was advanced amid a political crisis over ultra-Orthodox military draft exemptions, with ultra-Orthodox parties pushing for early elections in September. Netanyahu opposed early September elections, warning it could harm the right-wing bloc's chances, but the bill's passage indicated imminent dissolution.

Knesset votes unanimously to dissolve parliament, advancing early elections

July 31 surges to 76%27%

The Knesset voted 110-0 in favor of a preliminary reading of a government-backed bill to dissolve parliament, triggered by disputes over ultra-Orthodox military exemptions, significantly boosting market prices for July 31 and June 30 dissolution dates.

Knesset votes overwhelmingly to dissolve parliament in preliminary reading

June 30 surges to 53%36%

On May 20, 2026, the Knesset voted 110-0 in favor of a preliminary reading of the bill to dissolve parliament, marking a critical step toward early elections. This unanimous vote significantly increased market confidence that the Knesset would dissolve before the scheduled election date.

Knesset advances bill to dissolve itself with unanimous preliminary support

May 31 drops to 2%11%

Lawmakers voted 110-0 in favor of a preliminary reading of a government-backed dissolution bill, potentially triggering snap elections if ultimately passed into law, marking a decisive step toward early elections.

Israeli Lawmakers Vote to Advance Bill to Dissolve Parliament

July 31 surges to 69%20%

The Knesset voted overwhelmingly in a preliminary reading to dissolve itself amid a coalition crisis over ultra-Orthodox military draft exemptions, raising the prospect of early elections in September.

Knesset votes unanimously in preliminary reading to dissolve itself

June 30 jumps to 64%10%

Israeli lawmakers voted 110-0 in favor of a preliminary reading of the bill to dissolve the Knesset, officially starting the legislative process toward early elections.

Israeli Knesset votes to dissolve itself, advancing early election process

July 31 surges to 69%20%

The Knesset passed a preliminary vote to dissolve itself with overwhelming support, initiating the formal process for early elections likely to be held in September or October 2026. This vote reflected the collapse of Netanyahu's coalition due to the ultra-Orthodox draft dispute and increased market confidence in dissolution.

Knesset dissolution bill sent to committee to set election date

May 31 plunges to 4%20%

With the bill now in committee, the market uncertainty about timing decreased. The May 31 price dropped to 4% as the market priced in a likely early election outcome.

Knesset votes 110-0 to advance coalition dissolution bill

June 30 rises to 14%2%

The coalition's bill passed its preliminary reading with overwhelming support, beginning the process of moving elections forward from October 27 to September or mid-October. This major political development significantly impacted market pricing.

Knesset votes unanimously to advance bill to dissolve parliament

The Israeli parliament voted 110-0 in favor of a bill to dissolve itself, advancing the process for early elections likely between early September and late October. The vote reflected the collapse of Netanyahu's coalition after ultra-Orthodox factions withdrew support over the draft exemption bill.

Knesset approves bill in preliminary reading to dissolve parliament unanimously

July 31 surges to 79%35%

The Knesset voted 110-0 in favor of a bill to dissolve itself, marking the first step toward early elections. Netanyahu and key ministers were absent, reflecting coalition tensions. The bill must pass additional readings before becoming law.

Israeli lawmakers advance bill to dissolve Knesset, raising prospect of September election

July 31 jumps to 61%12%

Lawmakers advanced a bill to dissolve parliament, increasing the likelihood of elections being held earlier than the scheduled October 27 date, possibly in early September. The bill was supported by both coalition and opposition members amid political instability and security concerns.

Knesset unanimously advances dissolution bill

July 31 surges to 87%43%

The Knesset voted 110‑0 in a preliminary reading to advance the dissolution bill, confirming that parliament would be dissolved and elections would be held no later than October 27. The unanimous vote drove the July‑31 odds sharply higher.

Israeli parliament votes to dissolve itself, advancing early elections

The Knesset voted overwhelmingly to dissolve itself, advancing a bill that would trigger early elections likely between early September and late October 2025, following ultra-Orthodox parties' withdrawal of support and coalition instability.

Israeli Knesset votes to advance bill to dissolve parliament

July 31 surges to 70%21%

The Knesset voted to advance the dissolution bill, moving it closer to final approval and triggering the process for early elections likely in September. This vote caused a significant market price increase for later dissolution dates, reflecting heightened probability of early elections.

Opposition MKs submit separate dissolution bill amid political deadlock

Opposition lawmakers, including Blue and White leader Benny Gantz, submitted their own bill to dissolve parliament, signaling broad political consensus on early elections and increasing pressure on the government. This reinforced market expectations for dissolution and elections in the near term.

Knesset dissolution bill advances amid coalition tensions over draft legislation

June 30 rises to 54%1%

The dissolution bill passed a preliminary vote on May 20, 2026, amid political struggles between Netanyahu and ultra-Orthodox coalition partners over military draft exemptions. The bill's advancement signaled a narrowing window for elections, impacting market prices for June and July election dates.

Explosion in Gaza wounds Israeli soldier, accusations of cease‑fire breach

June 30 surges to 57%16%

The incident revived concerns over cease‑fire stability, shifting sentiment toward the earlier May 31 deadline and causing a sharp price drop for the June 30 outcome.

Knesset session focused on symbolic speeches, no legislation debate

June 30 rises to 55%2%

With no legislation available for debate, lawmakers focused on symbolic speeches marking Jerusalem Day, Ethiopian Jewish immigration, and National Students Day, indicating the dissolution process was taking precedence.

Israeli Knesset House Committee unanimously advances bill to dissolve parliament

July 31 jumps to 59%10%

The Knesset House Committee voted 8-0 to advance legislation dissolving parliament, setting the stage for early elections between September 8 and October 20, 2025, which increased market confidence in dissolution and early elections.

Netanyahu says he prefers October 27 election date

July 31 drops to 70%14%

Netanyahu publicly stated he preferred the original October 27 election date, counter‑balancing the push for a September vote and contributing to the slight dip in the “July 31” price that afternoon.

Israeli Opposition Leaders Call on Lawmakers to Support Knesset Dissolution Bill

June 30 drops to 56%6%

Opposition party leaders issued a joint statement calling on all Knesset members to support the upcoming dissolution vote, maintaining high market expectations for early elections.

Israeli Opposition Parties Call on Lawmakers to Support Knesset Dissolution Bill

June 30 jumps to 55%12%

Opposition leaders urged Knesset members to back a bill to dissolve parliament in an upcoming preliminary vote, intensifying pressure on the fragile ruling coalition.

Israeli opposition calls for Knesset dissolution and early elections

Opposition parties publicly urged Knesset members to support a bill dissolving the parliament, emphasizing the dysfunction of the current Knesset and pushing for elections as soon as possible. This increased pressure on the coalition and contributed to the momentum toward dissolution.

Israeli Opposition Calls on Lawmakers to Support Knesset Dissolution Bill

June 30 surges to 59%18%

Opposition party leaders issued a joint statement calling on all Knesset members to support a bill to dissolve the parliament in an upcoming preliminary vote.

Israeli opposition calls for Knesset dissolution and early elections

Opposition parties urged Knesset members to support a bill dissolving the parliament, pushing for early elections amid government dysfunction and coalition withdrawal of bills from the agenda.

Knesset House Committee unanimously advances dissolution bill

July 31 jumps to 54%5%

The Knesset House Committee voted 8-0 to advance the bill dissolving parliament, sending it to the plenum for a first reading. This formal step increased the likelihood of early elections between September 8 and October 20, 2025, influencing market prices especially for the July 31 outcome.

Israeli opposition calls for dissolution of Knesset and early elections

Opposition parties publicly urged Knesset members to support a bill dissolving parliament, emphasizing dysfunction and pushing for elections as soon as possible. This increased pressure on the coalition and contributed to momentum toward dissolution.

Ultra-Orthodox conscription dispute pushes Israeli government to brink

The ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism pulled support from Netanyahu's coalition unless a draft exemption bill was passed, intensifying the political crisis and pushing the government towards collapse and early elections.

Ultra-Orthodox parties push for Knesset dissolution amid military draft dispute

The ultra-Orthodox parties, key coalition members, announced their intention to dissolve the Knesset due to failure to pass legislation exempting their constituents from military service. This escalated the political crisis and pressured the government towards early elections.

Israeli President delays decision on Netanyahu's request to halt corruption trial

June 30 rises to 49%3%

President Isaac Herzog delayed a decision on Netanyahu's request to halt his corruption trial, a setback for Netanyahu amid political uncertainty. This likely influenced market expectations about political stability and parliamentary dissolution timing.

Ultra-Orthodox conscription dispute pushes Israeli government to brink

Ultra-Orthodox parties threatened to withdraw support over military draft exemptions, destabilizing Netanyahu's coalition and increasing likelihood of parliament dissolution and early elections.

UNRWA demolition controversy sparks protests in Jerusalem

Renewed protests over UNRWA site demolitions revived political tension, causing a modest pullback in price.

Israeli cabinet delays Rafah opening amid security concerns

May 31 plunges to 13%18%

A sudden reversal on the Rafah timetable revived fears of political deadlock, sharply lowering the May‑31 probability.

Israeli cabinet debates settlement expansion amid political pressure

May 31 drops to 4%9%

Intensified settlement policy debates signaled internal governmental strain, prompting traders to pull back from the May‑31 scenario as the likelihood of an early dissolution appeared reduced.

Over 80 Countries Condemn Israeli West Bank Measures

June 30 plunges to 16%24%

A broad international coalition condemned Israel's West Bank policies, further isolating Israel diplomatically and increasing political instability.

Israel recovers remains of last hostage in Gaza, advancing ceasefire phase

June 30 jumps to 46%6%

Israel recovered the remains of the last hostage in Gaza, removing a major obstacle to the next phase of the ceasefire. This development likely reduced immediate political pressure, affecting market views on parliamentary dissolution timing.

Netanyahu coalition fast-tracks laws amid looming Knesset dissolution

June 30 jumps to 48%10%

Netanyahu's coalition accelerated controversial legislation as the dissolution of the Knesset became imminent, reflecting attempts to control the political agenda before early elections. Market prices for dissolution by June 30 rose significantly, indicating increased likelihood of early elections.

Ultra-Orthodox parties break with Netanyahu over draft exemptions

June 30 surges to 57%37%

United Torah Judaism and Degel HaTorah factions withdrew support from Netanyahu over the stalled conscription exemption law, signaling a major coalition crisis and paving the way for dissolution votes.

Coalition submits official bill to dissolve Knesset

June 30 jumps to 59%6%

Coalition whip Ofir Katz formally submitted the bill to dissolve the Knesset with the backing of coalition faction leaders, solidifying the path toward early elections.

Trump urges rapid move to second cease‑fire phase with Netanyahu

June 30 drops to 44%14%

President Trump’s public push for a quick transition to the second phase revived optimism for a June 30 dissolution, briefly lifting the price before a rapid decline later that day.

Rafah crossing reopens for limited Palestinian travel between Gaza and Egypt

June 30 surges to 34%16%

The reopening of the Rafah border crossing marked a significant step in the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, improving humanitarian conditions and political prospects.

UN peacekeepers report surge in Israeli‑Lebanon incidents

May 31 drops to 13%10%

A report of increased Israeli attacks near UNIFIL positions heightened regional security concerns, causing a rapid drop in confidence for the May‑31 outcome as attention shifted to external conflicts.

Central Elections Committee poll shows surge for early‑election parties

June 30 surges to 59%47%

A poll released by the Central Elections Committee showed a sharp rise in support for parties favouring an early election, pushing the June 30 outcome’s probability up from single‑digit levels to 59 % on the same day, before it receded later in the week.

Israel returns 15 Palestinian bodies to Gaza in final exchange

The reciprocal exchange was seen as a diplomatic success, further lowering the perceived risk of political upheaval and pushing the price higher.

Israel returns remains of last Israeli hostage from Gaza

May 31 plunges to 8%23%

The recovery of Ran Gvili’s remains removed a key political hurdle, leading traders to favor a May‑31 dissolution as the government could now focus on internal politics rather than cease‑fire negotiations.

Limited travel through Rafah crossing resumes amid ceasefire talks

The partial reopening of the Rafah crossing was interpreted as progress in the ceasefire’s second phase, reducing urgency for a political reset and causing the market’s May‑31 probability to fall while the June‑30 outlook rose sharply.

Israel ruling coalition proposes dissolving parliament for early elections

June 30 surges to 41%29%

Following a revolt by ultra-Orthodox coalition partners over military draft exemptions, Netanyahu's Likud party pre-empted opposition moves by submitting its own bill to dissolve the Knesset.

Netanyahu's Likud Party Submits Bill to Dissolve Knesset

June 30 surges to 44%30%

Faced with a potential rebellion from ultra-Orthodox coalition partners over military draft exemptions, Netanyahu's Likud party submitted its own bill to dissolve the Knesset to retain control over the election timeline.

Coalition submits own bill to dissolve Knesset to control election timing

June 30 jumps to 65%8%

Netanyahu's coalition submitted a bill to dissolve the Knesset aiming to control the election timing and prevent opposition from dictating the process. This strategic move increased market confidence in early elections but left the exact date uncertain.

Israel's ruling coalition proposes dissolving parliament for early elections

Netanyahu's Likud party proposed a bill to dissolve the Knesset amid coalition tensions, particularly with ultra-Orthodox parties upset over draft exemption promises. This proposal set the stage for early elections and initiated market speculation on the timing of dissolution.

Netanyahu's ruling coalition proposes dissolving parliament for early elections

Amid mounting anger from ultra-Orthodox parties and coalition instability, Netanyahu's Likud party submitted a bill to dissolve the Knesset, aiming to control the timing of early elections. This move was seen as a preemptive step against opposition efforts to dissolve parliament and reflected the coalition's fragility over military conscription exemptions.

Netanyahu coalition submits Knesset dissolution bill

June 30 surges to 57%37%

Prime Minister Netanyahu's coalition filed a bill to dissolve the Knesset, aiming to control the timing of elections amid coalition fractures and ultra-Orthodox pressure over conscription exemptions.

Israeli ruling coalition proposes dissolving parliament for early elections

June 30 surges to 55%20%

Following fractures over ultra-Orthodox conscription, the ruling coalition officially proposed a bill to dissolve the Knesset, with a vote planned for May 20.

Netanyahu’s coalition files its own Knesset‑dissolution bill

June 30 jumps to 59%13%

The governing coalition formally submitted its own dissolution bill to the Knesset, the first such proposal from the government itself. Traders interpreted this as a decisive step toward an early snap election, pushing the June‑30 “Yes” probability up and the May‑31 “Yes” probability sharply down.

UTJ push for dissolution drags down May‑31 election odds

May 31 plunges to 4%27%

Following UTJ’s May 12 announcement, the market’s May‑31 “Yes” price, which had spiked to 31 % on May 13, collapsed to single‑digit levels as traders reassessed the likelihood of an early election in September‑October rather than at the end of October.

Netanyahu's Likud party proposes bill to dissolve parliament for early elections

June 30 plunges to 40%16%

To pre-empt opposition moves and maintain control over the electoral timetable, Netanyahu's ruling coalition submitted its own draft legislation to dissolve the Knesset.

Netanyahu's ruling coalition proposes dissolving parliament for early elections

May 31 plunges to 0%24%

On May 13, 2026, Netanyahu's coalition officially proposed a bill to dissolve the 25th Knesset and set early elections, aiming to control the election timing amid coalition fractures and ultra-Orthodox dissent.

Likud Proposes Bill to Dissolve Parliament to Seize Control of Election Timetable

June 30 surges to 59%23%

Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party pre-empted opposition moves by proposing its own bill to dissolve the Knesset, allowing the coalition to control the timing of the upcoming early elections.

Ruling coalition proposes dissolving parliament for early elections

The ruling coalition formally proposed a bill to dissolve the Knesset, aiming to trigger early elections before the original October 27 deadline. This legislative move increased market expectations for dissolution and elections in the September-October window.

Israel ruling coalition proposes dissolving parliament for early elections

The ruling coalition, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu, submitted a bill to dissolve the Knesset amid mounting anger from ultra-Orthodox parties over military draft exemptions. This move was seen as an attempt to control the timing of early elections, originally scheduled for October 27, 2025.

Coalition submits bill to dissolve Knesset to control election process

In a bid to control the dissolution process and prevent the opposition from dictating election timing, the coalition submitted its own bill to dissolve the Knesset, potentially triggering early elections.

Israeli ruling coalition proposes dissolving parliament for early elections

July 31 jumps to 62%13%

The ruling coalition in Israel proposed a bill to dissolve the Knesset, aiming to hold early elections before the original October 27 deadline. This proposal marked the beginning of formal steps toward dissolution, influencing market expectations for early elections.

Likud submits proposal to dissolve parliament for early elections

June 30 surges to 43%25%

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party submitted a bill to dissolve the Knesset to maintain control over the election timeline amid the coalition crisis.

Israeli ruling coalition submits bill to dissolve Knesset to control election timing

June 30 surges to 57%21%

In a bid to preempt the opposition and control the legislative process, Netanyahu's ruling coalition submitted its own bill to dissolve the Knesset, further solidifying expectations of early elections.

Israel's ruling coalition submits proposal to dissolve parliament for early elections

June 30 jumps to 59%10%

In an effort to control the electoral timeline amid the Haredi revolt, Netanyahu's Likud party submitted its own bill to dissolve the Knesset.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt

June 30 surges to 39%22%

Netanyahu approved a major natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional economic position. This political and economic development may have influenced market expectations about the stability and timing of parliamentary dissolution.

Sharp rise in market confidence after Netanyahu announces timeline for Rafah opening

May 31 jumps to 31%7%

A clear timetable for reopening Rafah reduced uncertainty about the cease‑fire’s future, causing a sudden surge in the May‑31 probability before it quickly fell as doubts resurfaced.

Netanyahu's coalition submits bill to dissolve Knesset amid Haredi conscription crisis

The coalition submitted a bill to dissolve the Knesset to preempt opposition efforts and control the timing of early elections, triggered by a crisis over military conscription exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men. This marked the start of the formal process toward early elections.

Netanyahu’s coalition files early‑dissolution bill

July 31 surges to 87%43%

Netanyahu’s ruling coalition submitted its own bill to dissolve the Knesset, aiming to control the election timetable and pre‑empt opposition‑driven dissolution attempts. The proposal intensified market expectations of a September election.

Netanyahu's coalition submits bill to dissolve Knesset amid Haredi conscription crisis

July 31 jumps to 63%14%

The ruling coalition, led by Netanyahu, submitted a bill to dissolve the Knesset to pre-empt opposition efforts and control the election timetable. This move was triggered by disputes over military draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews, signaling a potential early election.

Coalition files bill to dissolve Knesset without setting election date

The coalition submitted its own bill to dissolve the Knesset, aiming to control the dissolution process and election timing, though no election date was specified, fueling speculation about election timing.

Israeli lawmakers advance Knesset dissolution bill with unanimous preliminary vote

July 31 surges to 70%21%

The Knesset passed a preliminary reading of a bill to dissolve parliament by a 110-0 vote, signaling near-consensus on early elections. This legislative progress increased market confidence in dissolution by July 31, as the bill set the stage for elections before the original October deadline.

Coalition submits Knesset dissolution bill to control election process

May 31 plunges to 6%18%

Netanyahu's coalition introduced its own dissolution legislation to influence timing and avoid opposition dictating the process, a classic political maneuver. This move likely caused the May 31 price to drop from 24% to 6% as early election probability increased.

Netanyahu's ruling coalition proposes dissolving parliament for early elections

The ruling coalition submitted a bill to dissolve the Knesset, aiming to trigger early elections and control the election date, amid mounting tensions with ultra-Orthodox parties over military draft exemptions. This move set the stage for a parliamentary vote and increased market expectations for dissolution.

Israel's ruling coalition proposes early elections, submitting dissolution bill

June 30 jumps to 43%7%

To seize control of the electoral timetable from the opposition, Netanyahu's ruling coalition submitted its own proposal to dissolve the parliament.

Netanyahu's Coalition Submits Bill to Dissolve Knesset to Control Election Timetable

June 30 drops to 48%9%

In response to the Haredi mutiny and to preempt opposition moves, Coalition Whip Ofir Katz submitted a bill to dissolve the Knesset, allowing the government to retain control over the election date.

House Committee votes unanimously to advance Knesset dissolution bill

June 30 surges to 38%24%

The Knesset House Committee voted 8-0 to advance the bill dissolving parliament, setting the stage for early elections to be held between September 8 and October 20. This formal advancement increased market confidence in an early dissolution.

Coalition submits bill to dissolve Knesset amid political crisis

June 30 surges to 42%25%

The governing coalition submitted its own bill to dissolve the Knesset to control the election timing, signaling a move toward early elections and causing a sharp increase in market prices for the June 30 and July 31 options.

Israeli ruling coalition submits its own bill to dissolve the Knesset

June 30 plunges to 39%25%

In an effort to maintain control over the election timetable rather than letting the opposition dictate the process, Netanyahu's Likud-led coalition submitted its own Knesset dissolution bill.

Netanyahu's coalition submits its own bill to dissolve the Knesset

June 30 surges to 57%21%

In an effort to retain control over the electoral timetable, the ruling coalition submitted its own motion to dissolve the Knesset, scheduling a preliminary vote for May 20.

Netanyahu's Ruling Coalition Submits Bill to Dissolve Parliament

June 30 jumps to 47%12%

In an effort to control the electoral timetable amid the Haredi revolt, Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party submitted its own proposal to dissolve the Knesset.

Netanyahu coalition proposes dissolving parliament for early elections

In mid-May 2026, Netanyahu's coalition submitted a bill to dissolve the Knesset, aiming to control the election timetable and pre-empt opposition efforts. The bill stipulated elections no earlier than 90 days after passage, setting the stage for elections likely in September or October, influencing market expectations for dissolution timing.

Coalition submits bill to dissolve Knesset after Haredi pressure

May 31 plunges to 1%23%

Netanyahu's coalition submitted a dissolution bill after facing pressure from the ultra-Orthodox faction traditionally close to him, who accused him of failing to deliver on a promise to pass military exemption legislation.

Israel's ruling coalition proposes dissolving parliament for early elections

The ruling coalition, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu, submitted a bill to dissolve the Knesset, aiming to control the timing of early elections amid mounting ultra-Orthodox anger and coalition instability. This proposal set the stage for the parliamentary vote and market anticipation of early elections.

Coalition files bill to dissolve Knesset without setting election date

The coalition submitted its own dissolution legislation to control the election process, indicating a coordinated political maneuver to manage timing amid ongoing coalition instability.

Netanyahu's coalition proposes dissolving parliament for early elections

The ruling coalition, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu, proposed a bill to dissolve the Knesset, signaling intent for early elections amid coalition tensions. This legislative move initiated market speculation about an early dissolution, increasing the likelihood of the July 31 outcome.

Shas chairman demands Knesset dissolution after coalition fails on military exemption

Shas chairman Aryeh Deri announced the coalition failed to deliver the basic military exemption law, stating the party has no choice but to dissolve the Knesset and hold new elections immediately.

Israeli Coalition Files Bill to Dissolve Knesset Amid Conscription Crisis

June 30 surges to 61%22%

In an effort to control the electoral timetable, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition submitted its own bill to dissolve the Knesset following pressure from ultra-Orthodox factions.

Coalition submits bill to dissolve Knesset amid ultra-Orthodox draft crisis

July 31 surges to 72%23%

On May 13, 2026, the coalition submitted a bill to dissolve the Knesset following failure to pass military conscription exemptions for ultra-Orthodox students, signaling a move toward early elections. This legislative action marked the start of the formal dissolution process, impacting market expectations for election timing.

Coalition submits own Knesset dissolution bill to control election process

In a bid to control the process, the coalition submitted its own dissolution bill to the Knesset, aiming to prevent the opposition from dictating election timing.

Netanyahu's ruling coalition submits bill to dissolve Knesset amid coalition crisis

The ruling coalition, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, submitted a bill to dissolve the 25th Knesset following mounting tensions over military conscription exemptions for ultra-Orthodox students. This move was seen as an attempt to control the election timetable and preempt opposition efforts to dissolve parliament.

Netanyahu's ruling coalition submits bill to dissolve Knesset for early elections

The ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu submitted a bill to dissolve the 25th Knesset, aiming to control the election timetable amid a coalition crisis over ultra-Orthodox military conscription exemptions. This move set the stage for early elections potentially before the scheduled October 27 date.

Netanyahu's coalition proposes dissolving parliament for early elections

The ruling coalition, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu, submitted a bill to dissolve the Knesset amid coalition tensions over ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions. This proposal set the stage for early elections, with the bill expected to be voted on soon, signaling the beginning of the parliamentary dissolution process.

Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal to Egypt

June 30 surges to 45%31%

The landmark energy agreement was seen as a major diplomatic win for Netanyahu’s government, increasing confidence that his coalition could survive until a June‑30 dissolution, pushing the price sharply upward.

Haredi factions push to dissolve Knesset over military exemption issue

United Torah Judaism party announced a dissolution bill to dissolve the Knesset due to the coalition's failure to pass a law exempting Haredi yeshiva students from military service, escalating political tensions.

Ultra-Orthodox parties push to dissolve Knesset over failed military draft bill

The ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party announced its intention to dissolve the Knesset and trigger early elections due to the coalition's failure to pass a law on Haredi military exemptions. This increased the likelihood of early elections and prompted opposition MKs to submit dissolution bills.

UTJ party announces Knesset dissolution bid over military exemption failure

United Torah Judaism announced it would seek to dissolve the Knesset due to coalition's failure to pass a law exempting Haredi yeshiva students from military service, escalating early election prospects.

Ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party pushes to dissolve Knesset over military conscription law failure

May 31 plunges to 2%22%

On May 12, 2026, the UTJ party announced its intention to seek dissolution of the Knesset due to the coalition's failure to pass legislation exempting Haredi yeshiva students from military service. This increased the likelihood of early elections and influenced market prices for the May 31 dissolution option, which dropped significantly.

UTJ party announces plan to dissolve Knesset over military exemption failure

June 30 jumps to 67%10%

The seven-MK United Torah Judaism faction announced they would seek to dissolve the Knesset due to the coalition's failure to pass a law on Haredi yeshiva student military exemption, prompting multiple dissolution bills.

UTJ backs dissolving the Knesset, raising early‑election odds

June 30 surges to 59%45%

UTJ announced it would push for a dissolution bill because the coalition failed to pass a Haredi‑exemption law. The move signalled a new coalition push toward early elections, lifting market confidence that the Knesset would dissolve before October and sending the June‑30 “Yes” price from 14 % to 59 % over the next two days.

Ultra-Orthodox parties push to dissolve Knesset over conscription bill failure

Degel HaTorah and other Haredi parties announced they would seek to dissolve the Knesset due to Netanyahu's failure to pass legislation exempting their community from mandatory military service, prompting multiple opposition parties to submit dissolution bills.

Ultra-Orthodox parties demand Knesset dissolution over conscription bill failure

The seven-strong United Torah Judaism (UTJ) party announced it would seek to dissolve the Knesset due to the coalition's failure to pass a law enshrining Haredi yeshiva students' exemption from military service.

Ultra-Orthodox factions push to dissolve Knesset over military exemption law failure

June 15 jumps to 55%5%

United Torah Judaism party announced plans to dissolve the Knesset due to coalition failure to pass military conscription exemption legislation, increasing market expectations for early elections and influencing price movements for June 15 and July 31 outcomes.

Ultra-Orthodox UTJ party pushes to dissolve Knesset over military draft law failure

The ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party announced its intention to seek Knesset dissolution due to the coalition's failure to pass a law exempting Haredi yeshiva students from military service, increasing the likelihood of early elections.

Ultra-Orthodox party calls for Knesset dissolution, threatening government collapse

July 31 surges to 57%16%

A key ultra-Orthodox coalition partner demanded the dissolution of the Knesset, pushing the government to the brink of collapse over the Haredi military draft dispute.

Ultra-Orthodox parties push to dissolve Knesset over military exemption issue

May 31 plunges to 1%23%

Degel HaTorah and Agudat Yisrael announced their support for dissolving the Knesset due to the coalition's failure to pass a law exempting Haredi yeshiva students from mandatory military service.

Netanyahu faces internal coalition pressure over Gaza Board of Peace

June 30 surges to 48%31%

Internal coalition divisions regarding the U.S.-led Board of Peace and the future of Gaza governance created renewed speculation about the government's stability.

Israel recovers remains of last hostage, ending first phase of cease‑fire

The recovery was viewed as a closure of the most contentious issue of the cease‑fire, sharply reducing speculation of a Knesset dissolution and driving the price up.

Ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party calls to dissolve Knesset over draft exemption law failure

July 31 surges to 69%20%

The United Torah Judaism party announced its intention to seek dissolution of the Knesset due to the coalition's failure to pass a law enshrining the exemption of Haredi yeshiva students from military service, increasing the likelihood of early elections.

Israeli cabinet debates settlement project near Jerusalem

June 30 jumps to 50%12%

Debate over the contentious E1 settlement project signalled internal political friction, nudging the market higher for a June 30 dissolution date.

Israeli cabinet convenes to address rising settler violence in West Bank

June 30 rises to 18%4%

Prime Minister Netanyahu met with security officials to discuss escalating settler violence, highlighting internal security challenges that could impact government stability.

Israel approves $35 billion gas export deal to Egypt

May 31 surges to 52%28%

The landmark economic deal was seen as a sign of stabilising regional relations, briefly lifting market confidence for a later dissolution date, but the effect was short‑lived.

President Herzog mediates possible plea deal for Netanyahu

May 31 dips to 1%3%

Herzog announced mediation talks with Netanyahu to reach a plea deal on his criminal case. The prospect of Netanyahu exiting politics lowered the odds of a very early dissolution, nudging the “May 31” price down to 1 % by May 29.

Ultra-Orthodox party calls for Knesset dissolution over military draft dispute

The ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party publicly declared loss of trust in Netanyahu and called for the dissolution of the Knesset due to failure to pass legislation exempting their community from military service, escalating the coalition crisis.

UTJ leader calls for Knesset dissolution over failed draft‑exemption bill

July 31 surges to 87%43%

UTJ’s spiritual leader Rabbi Dov Lando publicly urged Knesset members to support dissolving the Knesset after the coalition failed to pass a Haredi draft‑exemption law, signalling a break in the governing alliance and raising expectations of an early election.

Ultra-Orthodox factions push to dissolve Knesset amid draft exemption dispute

The ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party announced support for dissolving the Knesset due to failure to pass a law exempting yeshiva students from military service, increasing chances of early elections likely in September. This raised market expectations for dissolution and elections before the October deadline.

Haredi United Torah Judaism Party Seeks to Dissolve Knesset Over Conscription Dispute

June 30 surges to 41%24%

The ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party announced it would seek to dissolve the Knesset due to the coalition's failure to pass a military draft exemption law, triggering a sharp rise in the probability of early dissolution.

Ultra-Orthodox Degel HaTorah party withdraws trust in Netanyahu, calling for Knesset dissolution

June 30 surges to 64%47%

Rabbi Dov Lando, the spiritual leader of the Degel HaTorah faction, declared that the party had lost trust in Prime Minister Netanyahu over his failure to pass the military draft exemption bill and ordered lawmakers to dissolve the Knesset.

Ultra-Orthodox UTJ Party Demands Knesset Dissolution Over Conscription Dispute

June 30 surges to 38%21%

The United Torah Judaism (UTJ) party, specifically its Degel HaTorah faction led by Rabbi Dov Lando, announced it would seek to dissolve the Knesset due to the coalition's failure to pass a military draft exemption law for Haredi students. This move triggered a sharp rise in the probability of a June 30 dissolution as the government's stability collapsed.

Ultra-Orthodox Degel HaTorah Leader Dov Lando Orders Lawmakers to Dissolve Knesset

June 30 surges to 57%39%

Rabbi Dov Lando declared that the government had lost his community's confidence and ordered Haredi lawmakers to work toward dissolving the Knesset as soon as possible over the draft exemption crisis.

Haredi party United Torah Judaism seeks to dissolve Knesset over conscription dispute

June 30 surges to 58%41%

The ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism (UTJ) party announced it would seek to dissolve the Knesset due to the coalition's failure to pass a military draft exemption law, triggering a sharp rise in the probability of early elections.

Ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party calls to dissolve Knesset over failed military exemption law

The UTJ party announced its intention to seek early elections due to the coalition's failure to pass a law exempting ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students from military service, increasing the likelihood of Knesset dissolution and earlier elections.

Leading Rabbi Orders Haredi Lawmakers to Work to Dissolve Knesset

June 30 surges to 49%32%

Rabbi Dov Lando, the spiritual leader of the Degel HaTorah faction, ordered ultra-Orthodox lawmakers to dissolve the Knesset as soon as possible due to the government's failure to pass a military draft exemption bill.

Haredi UTJ party seeks to dissolve Knesset over draft exemption crisis

June 30 surges to 36%19%

Rabbi Dov Lando, spiritual leader of the Degel HaTorah faction of United Torah Judaism, instructed lawmakers to dissolve the Knesset, prompting opposition parties to submit dissolution bills.

Degel HaTorah calls for Knesset dissolution over Haredi draft dispute

June 30 surges to 42%26%

The ultra-Orthodox Degel HaTorah faction publicly withdrew its trust in Prime Minister Netanyahu and demanded the immediate dissolution of parliament after he refused to advance military draft exemptions.

Degel HaTorah leader calls on party to dissolve the Knesset

June 30 surges to 57%39%

Rabbi Dov Lando, the spiritual leader of the Degel HaTorah faction, called on his party's lawmakers to dissolve the Knesset due to frustration over the military draft exemption bill. This move signaled a major crack in Netanyahu's coalition, causing the probability of a June 30 dissolution to spike.

Ultra-Orthodox party calls to dissolve Knesset, threatening Netanyahu's government

June 30 jumps to 18%7%

Rabbi Dov Lando, the spiritual leader of the Degel HaTorah faction of United Torah Judaism, called on lawmakers to dissolve the Knesset over the military draft exemption dispute, pushing the government to the brink of collapse.

Ultra-Orthodox party calls for Knesset dissolution, threatening Netanyahu's coalition

June 30 surges to 50%34%

A key ultra-Orthodox coalition partner called for the parliament to be dissolved over the military draft dispute, pushing the government to the brink of collapse and causing a sharp rise in the probability of a June 30 election option.

Ultra-Orthodox party leader Dov Lando calls for Knesset dissolution

June 30 surges to 59%45%

Rabbi Dov Lando, the spiritual leader of the Degel HaTorah faction of United Torah Judaism, called on party lawmakers to dissolve the Knesset, threatening the stability of Netanyahu's coalition.

United Torah Judaism announces push to dissolve Knesset over draft exemption failure

June 30 surges to 49%32%

The ultra-Orthodox UTJ party formally declared it would seek to dissolve the Knesset, stating the right-wing bloc alliance no longer existed, which severely threatened the survival of the government.

United Torah Judaism seeks to dissolve Knesset over draft exemption failure

June 30 surges to 50%38%

The ultra-Orthodox UTJ party announced it would seek to dissolve the Knesset and trigger early elections, citing the coalition's failure to pass a law exempting yeshiva students from military service.

United Torah Judaism party seeks to dissolve Knesset over military draft dispute

June 30 surges to 56%39%

The ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism (UTJ) party announced it would seek to dissolve the Knesset due to the coalition's failure to pass a law exempting Haredi students from military service, triggering a sharp rise in the probability of early dissolution.

Israeli ruling coalition proposes dissolving parliament for early elections

The ruling coalition in Israel proposed a bill to dissolve the Knesset, aiming to trigger early elections before the originally scheduled October 27, 2025 date. This announcement initiated market speculation about an earlier dissolution and elections.

Israeli Knesset passes law establishing special military tribunal for October 7 attackers

June 30 surges to 56%43%

The Israeli parliament overwhelmingly approved a bill to set up a special military tribunal with the authority to sentence October 7 attackers to death, demonstrating legislative cohesion and reducing immediate prospects of early dissolution.

Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt

June 30 surges to 47%29%

Netanyahu approved a historic natural gas export deal to Egypt, signaling efforts to strengthen regional ties and economic stability, which may have bolstered confidence in government continuity and reduced expectations of parliamentary dissolution.

Knesset House Committee unanimously advances bill to dissolve parliament

July 31 jumps to 61%12%

The Knesset House Committee voted 8-0 to advance legislation dissolving parliament, moving the bill to the plenum for its first reading. Coalition Chairman Ofir Katz indicated the election window under consideration was September 8 to October 20, signaling a strong move toward early elections.

EU Foreign Ministers Unanimously Approve Sanctions on Jewish Settler Groups

May 31 plunges to 1%23%

EU foreign ministers sanctioned Regavim and other settler organizations, cutting off financial ties with Israeli banks and government, marking a major diplomatic escalation in the Israel-Palestine conflict.

EU Foreign Ministers Approve Sanctions on Jewish Settler Organizations

May 31 plunges to 0%24%

The EU imposed sanctions on Regavim and other settler groups, disrupting Israeli settlement expansion and intensifying diplomatic tensions.

Police use water‑cannon on Haredi draft protest in Jerusalem

July 31 dips to 66%3%

Police used water‑cannon to disperse Haredi protesters against draft legislation. The unrest reminded markets of the coalition’s fragility, contributing to a small dip in the “July 31” price on May 26‑27.

Opposition leaders Bennett and Lapid hold joint news conference announcing new party

June 30 dips to 11%1%

On April 27, 2026, Bennett and Lapid publicly announced their new joint party, emphasizing the need for change in Israel's direction. This event reinforced the opposition's strength but did not precipitate Knesset dissolution, further lowering the market's dissolution probability.

Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce merger to form 'Together' party to challenge Netanyahu

On April 26, 2026, former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced the merger of their parties into a unified opposition list named 'Together,' led by Bennett. This alliance aims to consolidate opposition forces ahead of the upcoming elections, increasing pressure on Netanyahu's coalition.

Former Israeli PMs Bennett and Lapid Announce Party Merger Ahead of Elections

June 30 drops to 11%9%

Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced the merger of their parties into a unified list called 'Together' to challenge Benjamin Netanyahu, consolidating the opposition bloc.

Former PMs Bennett and Lapid merge parties amid election preparations

June 30 drops to 11%9%

The merger of opposition parties Bennett 2026 and Yesh Atid signaled intensified political competition ahead of the scheduled October elections, but with the budget passed, the likelihood of early dissolution remained low.

Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid Merge Parties to Oust Netanyahu

June 30 rises to 15%4%

Opposition leaders Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced the merger of their parties into a new alliance named Beyachad to contest the upcoming legislative elections.

UNRWA sites demolished amid escalating tensions

June 30 rises to 15%4%

Israel’s demolition of UNRWA facilities heightened international criticism and dampened expectations of a rapid cease‑fire rollout, pulling the June 30 price down.

Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce merger to form 'Together' party

Former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced on April 26, 2026, the merger of their parties into a unified list called 'Together,' with Bennett as leader. This alliance aims to consolidate the opposition and challenge Netanyahu in the upcoming elections, reshaping the political landscape ahead of the vote scheduled by October 27.

Netanyahu convenes cabinet on settler violence in the West Bank

June 30 dips to 40%4%

Prime Minister Netanyahu met with top security officials to address rising Israeli settler violence in the West Bank, signaling government focus on security and internal stability rather than political upheaval. This meeting reassured markets about political continuity, contributing to price declines for early dissolution outcomes.

Trump cancels U.S. envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks amid ongoing tensions

June 30 dips to 11%3%

President Trump called off the dispatch of envoys to Pakistan for Iran negotiations, signaling stalled diplomacy. This increased uncertainty in the region, potentially impacting Israeli political stability and parliamentary dissolution timing.

Channel 12 poll shows Likud slipping to 42 % support

May 31 plunges to 0%24%

A Channel 12 poll showed Netanyahu’s Likud slipping to 42 % support, heightening doubts about his ability to maintain the coalition and pushing market odds for a May 31 dissolution lower, eventually to zero.

Israel strikes Iran in June 2025, military conflict intensifies

June 30 dips to 13%4%

The June 2025 Israeli attack on Iran, which was later confirmed by a State of Israel statement, intensified military conflict pressures and contributed to the market's downward trend.

Netanyahu faces renewed calls for early elections amid coalition strain

June 30 plunges to 20%15%

Political analysts warned that coalition fractures could lead to a Knesset dissolution before the June deadline, pushing the June‑30 probability higher again.

Israeli ruling coalition proposes dissolving parliament for early elections

The ruling coalition in Israel proposed a bill to dissolve the Knesset, aiming to hold early elections before the scheduled October 27 deadline. This proposal marked the beginning of formal steps toward early elections, influencing market expectations for a dissolution.

UNRWA demolition sparks international criticism and protests

The demolition led to widespread condemnation and protests, increasing domestic political pressure on Netanyahu’s coalition and causing a sharp drop in the market’s confidence that the Knesset would survive until June, pulling the price down sharply.

Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz, escalating regional conflict

June 30 jumps to 23%6%

Iran's Revolutionary Guard closed the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships, intensifying the Middle East conflict. This heightened regional instability likely influenced Israeli political calculations, affecting market expectations for parliamentary dissolution.

Israel's 2026 budget survives Knesset's first reading as Netanyahu faces potential snap vote

June 30 dips to 17%3%

The budget passed its first reading after resolving a crisis with ultra-Orthodox coalition partners, but the final approval still needed two more votes before March 31 to avoid early elections.

Netanyahu’s coalition files bill to dissolve Knesset amid draft exemption crisis

June 30 surges to 38%24%

On April 16, Netanyahu’s coalition officially submitted a bill to dissolve the Knesset, aiming to control the timing of new elections amid a political crisis over ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions. This move signaled the government’s impending collapse and set the stage for elections likely in September or October 2026.

Israeli military conducts strikes targeting Hezbollah militants in Lebanon

June 30 dips to 23%3%

The Israel Defense Forces reported strikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, escalating regional tensions. Such military actions contribute to political instability in Israel, potentially affecting parliamentary decisions including dissolution timing.

Haredi leaders publicly withdraw support from Netanyahu coalition

June 30 drops to 22%14%

Lithuanian Haredi leaders publicly declared loss of confidence in Netanyahu and the coalition, escalating the political crisis over the draft exemption law. This public rupture increased pressure on the government and contributed to the decision to dissolve the Knesset.

Israel recovers remains of last hostage in Gaza, advancing ceasefire phase

June 30 dips to 20%1%

The recovery of the last hostage's remains in Gaza marked a significant step in the ceasefire process, indicating political stability and reducing the likelihood of Knesset dissolution by June 30.

Poll shows Israelis oppose Iran ceasefire amid ongoing conflict

Public opinion polls indicated strong opposition to ceasefire with Iran, reflecting ongoing regional tensions. While this heightened security concerns, it did not directly affect the Knesset dissolution timeline.

Israel‑Egypt talks signal possible Rafah reopening soon

Talks about reopening the Rafah crossing were interpreted as a sign of de‑escalation, prompting a modest price rebound.

Netanyahu convenes cabinet on settler violence in the West Bank

June 30 drops to 12%6%

Prime Minister Netanyahu met with security officials to address rising settler violence in the West Bank, reflecting ongoing internal security challenges that could impact political stability and parliamentary dynamics.

Netanyahu stresses need to pass budget to keep elections on schedule

June 30 drops to 24%8%

Netanyahu warned that the budget must pass to avoid an early election, emphasizing the coalition’s fragility over the haredi draft bill. The market saw a modest decline in the “Yes” price for a June‑30 dissolution from 32 % to 24 % as investors reassessed the timeline.

Knesset dissolution first reading vote set for Monday

June 30 rises to 20%3%

The Knesset scheduled the first reading of the dissolution vote, indicating potential early elections due to coalition instability and budget concerns.

Israel's rule of law and democracy on brink of collapse

June 30 dips to 11%1%

A French newspaper reported that Israel's democratic institutions were at risk, citing the controversial death penalty law and broader political instability, which likely influenced market perception of the Knesset's stability.

Reports highlight Israel's political and democratic crisis amid ongoing war

June 30 drops to 28%12%

Media reports emphasized the fragile state of Israel's democracy and political system amid the ongoing conflict and legislative controversies. This environment contributed to market pessimism about the Knesset's survival, pushing prices for dissolution by June 30 lower.

Israel's democracy and rule of law face collapse amid political crisis

June 30 plunges to 20%47%

A major article reported that Israel's democratic institutions were on the brink of collapse following controversial legislation and political polarization.

Concerns rise over Israel's rule of law amid far-right legislative changes

June 30 drops to 19%9%

Reports highlighted significant legislative shifts under the right-wing coalition, raising concerns about Israel's democracy and political stability. This contributed to market uncertainty and a decline in the probability of Knesset dissolution by June 30.

Report warns Israel's rule of law and democracy on brink of collapse

June 30 drops to 20%11%

A report highlighted significant legislative shifts and political transformations under the right-wing coalition, emphasizing concerns about democratic backsliding. While politically significant, this did not directly trigger Knesset dissolution but influenced market sentiment downward.

Israel passes death‑penalty law amid ICC pressure

June 30 drops to 52%5%

A report linking a new death‑penalty law to ICC scrutiny raised concerns over Israel’s international standing, slightly lowering confidence in a swift September election and pulling the “June 30” price down marginally.

UN experts call for suspension of EU-Israel trade agreement over human rights violations

June 30 drops to 16%5%

UN experts urged the EU to suspend its trade agreement with Israel due to serious human rights violations, increasing international pressure on Israel amid domestic political instability.

Knesset passes deficit and spending hike amid Iran war

June 30 drops to 22%6%

The Knesset approved a bill increasing the deficit ceiling and defense spending in the 2026 budget, reflecting ongoing war costs. This reinforced the government's ability to maintain stability and reduced immediate risks of dissolution.

UN peacekeepers report surge in Israeli‑Lebanon incidents

The report of increased clashes near the Lebanese border revived concerns about broader conflict, pulling prices down sharply.

Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising settler violence in the West Bank

June 30 drops to 12%8%

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with top security officials to address escalating Israeli settler violence in the West Bank, including attacks causing injuries and property damage. The meeting highlighted ongoing security challenges but did not indicate any parliamentary dissolution, reflecting continued political tensions without triggering a government collapse.

UNRWA sites demolished amid heightened tensions

June 30 plunges to 10%59%

The demolition of UNRWA facilities heightened diplomatic friction, reducing optimism about a swift political resolution and pulling the market price down.

Iran protests erupt over currency plunge and economic woes

June 30 drops to 11%6%

Widespread protests in Iran over economic conditions and currency collapse increased regional instability, potentially influencing Israeli political dynamics and market perceptions of parliamentary dissolution likelihood.

Hezbollah‑Israel cease‑fire extended by three weeks

June 30 plunges to 35%21%

The extension reduced the immediate security threat on Israel’s northern front, lowering the perceived need for a political reset and pulling the June‑30 price down.

UN peacekeepers report surge in Israeli‑Lebanon incidents

June 30 jumps to 38%10%

Increased border incidents raised regional tension, briefly reviving concerns about domestic political pressure and a possible Knesset dissolution, causing a short‑term price rise.

Israel approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt

June 30 rises to 20%2%

The approval of a major gas deal with Egypt was seen as a stabilizing factor for the government, reducing the immediate likelihood of a parliamentary dissolution.

Knesset resumes Haredi draft bill debates amid dissolution risk

June 30 plunges to 38%17%

Parliament resumed debates on the ultra‑Orthodox draft exemption bill on 1 April 2026, heightening coalition tensions. Analysts linked the renewed draft fight to a higher probability of an early dissolution, which helped lift the June‑30 price in early April.

Israel fires mortar into Gaza residential area, wounding at least 10

June 30 drops to 20%12%

An Israeli mortar strike into a Gaza residential area caused civilian casualties, exacerbating tensions and complicating ceasefire progress, affecting political outlook.

Knesset budget approval deadline looms as Netanyahu seeks final votes

June 30 plunges to 18%33%

With the March 31 budget approval deadline approaching, Netanyahu's government faced increasing pressure to secure final parliamentary approvals, with the failure to do so potentially triggering early elections.

Iranian missile strikes hit Israeli city Bnei Brak amid regional tensions

June 30 dips to 21%1%

Iranian missile strikes in Israel heightened regional tensions but did not trigger political instability sufficient to prompt Knesset dissolution, maintaining low market probability for dissolution by June 30.

Deadline for 2026 budget approval passes, raising risk of Knesset dissolution

June 30 drops to 39%13%

The March 31 deadline for final approval of the 2026 state budget passed without full approval, triggering the automatic dissolution mechanism under Israeli Basic Law. This significantly increased the likelihood of early elections and dissolution of the Knesset by June 30, reflected in market price declines.

Israeli parliament passes 2026 state budget, avoiding automatic dissolution

June 30 rises to 23%3%

The Knesset passed the 2026 state budget after overcoming coalition disputes, removing the immediate threat of automatic dissolution and early elections. This budget approval was critical to maintaining government stability through the spring.

Israel's parliament passes death penalty law for Palestinian murderers

June 30 plunges to 12%55%

The Knesset passed a controversial law introducing hanging for Palestinians convicted of murdering Israelis, a move condemned internationally and likely to trigger political and legal backlash, affecting market sentiment around democratic stability.

Knesset approves largest-ever 2026 state budget, averting early elections

June 30 jumps to 29%12%

The Knesset approved the 2026 state budget in final readings just before the March 31 deadline, preventing automatic dissolution. The budget included record defense spending and significant allocations to ultra-Orthodox institutions, reflecting coalition compromises amid ongoing war.

Israel's parliament approves death penalty for Palestinians convicted of murdering Israelis

June 30 plunges to 12%55%

The Knesset passed a controversial law introducing hanging for Palestinians convicted of murdering Israelis, a move condemned internationally and likely to trigger political and legal backlash, affecting market sentiment around democratic stability.

Israeli parliament passes controversial death penalty expansion bill for Palestinians

June 30 dips to 20%3%

The Knesset finalized a bill expanding the death penalty for Palestinians convicted of terrorism and nationalistic murders, a move supported by Netanyahu's coalition but criticized internationally. This legislative action reflected internal political dynamics amid security concerns.

Knesset passes 2026 state budget in final readings, avoiding early elections

June 30 drops to 16%12%

The Knesset successfully passed the 2026 state budget in its final readings late Sunday/Monday, meeting the March 31 legal deadline and officially preventing the automatic dissolution of parliament.

Israeli parliament passes budget, allowing Netanyahu to avoid early elections

June 30 plunges to 25%37%

The Knesset passed the annual budget in a marathon session, removing a key overhang and further lowering the market’s expectation of a June‑30 dissolution. The “Yes” price slid from 62 % on March 30 to 25 % by March 31.

Israeli Parliament Approves 2026 State Budget, Averting Early Elections

June 30 plunges to 10%19%

The Knesset passed the 2026 state budget in an early morning vote, successfully preventing the automatic dissolution of parliament and the triggering of early elections.

Israeli Knesset passes first reading of 2026 budget, averting immediate dissolution

The Knesset passed the first reading of the 2026 budget, temporarily averting automatic dissolution. However, ongoing disputes over the ultra-Orthodox draft exemption law continued to threaten coalition stability and the possibility of early elections.

Israel passes 2026 state budget, successfully averting early elections

June 30 drops to 22%6%

The Knesset passed the 2026 state budget in its final readings just hours before the deadline, preventing automatic dissolution of the parliament and securing the government's survival.

Knesset passes law approving death penalty for Palestinians convicted of murder

June 30 rises to 31%2%

The Israeli parliament passed a controversial law instituting the death penalty for Palestinians convicted of terrorist murders. This legislative action reflected the government's consolidation of power and political stability, reducing immediate dissolution prospects.

Knesset approves death penalty law for Palestinians convicted of murder

June 30 drops to 54%9%

The Israeli parliament passed a controversial law instituting the death penalty for Palestinians convicted of terrorist murder. This legislative shift highlighted the government's consolidation and may have influenced political stability perceptions, contributing to market fluctuations.

Knesset passes controversial death penalty law amid political tensions

June 30 drops to 52%14%

The Knesset passed a law introducing the death penalty for Palestinians accused of terrorist murder, reflecting the right-wing coalition's legislative shift. This event underscored the government's fragile political environment and ongoing tensions within the parliament, contributing to market doubts about stability.

Knesset passes largest state budget in history before deadline

June 30 jumps to 47%13%

The Knesset passed the 850 billion shekel 2026 budget on March 30, just before the March 31 deadline that would have triggered automatic dissolution. This passage demonstrated coalition survival and delayed the need for early elections.

Israel Parliament passes death penalty law for Palestinians convicted of terrorist murder

June 30 jumps to 67%8%

The controversial law, supported by a parliamentary majority, introduced hanging for Palestinians accused of murdering Israelis, sparking international criticism and domestic debate.

Knesset Passes 850 Billion Shekel 2026 State Budget, Averting Automatic Dissolution

June 30 drops to 28%8%

The Knesset passed the largest state budget in Israel's history just hours before the legal deadline, preventing the automatic dissolution of parliament and causing the probability of a June 30 dissolution to plunge.

Israeli parliament approves death penalty for Palestinians convicted of murder

June 30 drops to 54%9%

The Knesset passed a controversial law introducing the death penalty for Palestinians convicted of murder as part of terrorist acts. While significant politically, this event did not directly impact the likelihood of Knesset dissolution or election timing.

Knesset Approves 2026 State Budget, Averting Early Elections

June 30 plunges to 22%15%

The Israeli parliament passed the 2026 state budget in its final readings early Monday morning, meeting the March 31 deadline. This successfully averted the automatic dissolution of the Knesset and the threat of early elections.

Israeli parliament passes annual budget, ensuring government completes its term

June 30 plunges to 10%19%

The Knesset passed the state budget in an overnight session, successfully avoiding the March 31 deadline that would have triggered automatic dissolution and early elections.

Knesset approves 2026 budget, largest in Israeli history, avoiding early elections

June 30 drops to 11%6%

The final approval of the 2026 state budget by the Knesset averted automatic dissolution and early elections, causing a sharp decline in the market's probability of dissolution by the June 30 outcome date.

Israeli Knesset passes first reading of 2026 state budget amid coalition tensions

June 30 surges to 68%35%

The Knesset approved the first reading of the 2026 state budget after resolving disputes with ultra-Orthodox coalition partners, a critical step to avoid automatic dissolution of parliament. This event significantly lowered the market's perceived risk of early Knesset dissolution, particularly affecting the June 30 outcome.

Knesset passes 2026 state budget in final votes, averting early elections

June 30 rises to 14%1%

The Knesset passed the 2026 state budget in its final readings by a vote of 62-55, approving large increases for defense and ultra-Orthodox education. This vote prevented the automatic dissolution of the Knesset and early elections, resolving the immediate political crisis.

Shas leader opposes Haredi exemption bill ahead of elections

June 30 plunges to 33%26%

Shas chairman Aryeh Deri publicly opposed passing the Haredi‑military‑exemption bill before elections, raising doubts about the coalition’s ability to stay together and briefly pulling the June‑30 “Yes” price down to the low‑40 % range.

UTJ parties meet with Netanyahu to coordinate dissolution strategy

June 30 rises to 44%4%

Ultra-Orthodox parties met with Prime Minister Netanyahu to discuss supporting a coalition-sponsored dissolution bill rather than opposition-led legislation, suggesting coordination behind the scenes on election timing and terms.

Lebanon and Israel hold first direct diplomatic talks in decades in Washington

June 30 drops to 29%8%

Lebanon and Israel engaged in historic direct talks brokered by the US amid ongoing conflict with Hezbollah, signaling potential de-escalation but no immediate political changes in Israel's parliament. This event influenced market sentiment on political stability affecting the June 30 outcome.

Knesset budget approval crisis deepens as Haredi factions split on conscription bill

June 30 plunges to 51%19%

A deepening budget approval crisis emerged as Haredi factions within United Torah Judaism split on the conscription bill, with Agudat Israel opposing the budget while Shas and Degel HaTorah supported it, threatening to dissolve parliament.

Israeli parliament advances contentious death penalty bill for Palestinians

June 30 drops to 17%9%

The Knesset's advancement of a controversial death penalty bill heightened political tensions but did not directly affect the budget or dissolution likelihood, contributing to market volatility.

Netanyahu races to pass state budget to stave off early elections

June 30 drops to 22%6%

Prime Minister Netanyahu actively worked to secure the state budget before the March 31 deadline to avoid automatic dissolution and snap elections.

Netanyahu seeks to avoid snap vote as Iran war fails to boost poll numbers

June 30 drops to 16%12%

Reports emerged that Prime Minister Netanyahu was actively working to stave off early elections by allocating funds to political allies to secure a majority vote for the budget, driving down the probability of early dissolution.

Netanyahu seeks to pass budget to stave off snap vote

June 30 rises to 55%2%

Reuters reported Netanyahu’s push to pass a defense‑heavy budget to avoid a budget‑failure trigger that would force early elections. The news dampened expectations of a September dissolution and pulled the “June 30” and “June 15” prices down modestly.

Market price drops to 21% as budget approval deadline approaches

June 30 drops to 21%12%

With the March 31 budget deadline approaching and the budget still needing two more approvals, market confidence in dissolution risk decreased, leading to a price drop to 21%.

Knesset budget approval deadline extended to avoid automatic dissolution

June 30 plunges to 17%23%

The Knesset extended the budget approval deadline by 120 days, preventing automatic dissolution under Basic Law: The Knesset, which requires budget approval by the end of March or within 145 days of a new government.

Israeli UNRWA sites in East Jerusalem targeted and demolished

June 30 plunges to 17%23%

Israel enforced a new law banning UNRWA operations in East Jerusalem, escalating tensions and reflecting ongoing political strife that could impact government stability and parliamentary actions.

Israeli cabinet convenes on settler violence in the West Bank

June 30 drops to 28%12%

The Israeli cabinet met to address rising settler violence in the West Bank, reflecting government focus on security and internal stability rather than dissolving the Knesset, contributing to a decline in dissolution probability.

Ultra-Orthodox parties back coalition-sponsored Knesset dissolution bill

June 30 jumps to 58%5%

The ultra-Orthodox parties preferred a coalition-sponsored bill over opposition-led legislation, fueling speculation about coordinated timing and terms for potential elections. This early political maneuvering influenced market expectations for a potentially earlier election.

UTJ leaders meet Netanyahu to coordinate dissolution strategy

June 30 rises to 55%2%

UTJ party leaders met with Prime Minister Netanyahu to discuss coordination on the dissolution of the Knesset, fueling speculation about potential cooperation between Haredi parties and the coalition.

Knesset advances deficit and spending hike in first reading amid Iran war

June 30 plunges to 39%15%

The Knesset voted to increase the deficit ceiling and defense spending in the proposed 2026 budget, moving closer to securing the final budget passage.

Knesset approves updated war budget in first reading amid opposition protests

June 30 rises to 40%1%

The Knesset approved an updated 2026 war budget in its first reading, adding billions to defense and raising the deficit ceiling, keeping the budget process moving forward despite intense political friction.

Knesset Finance Committee approves 2026 state budget ahead of final reading

The Knesset Finance Committee approved the 2026 state budget bill after late-night debates, moving it closer to final approval. The budget must pass final readings by March 31 to avoid automatic dissolution of the Knesset and early elections, underscoring the high stakes for government stability.

UNRWA sites demolished after Knesset legislation

June 30 drops to 56%10%

The Knesset’s enforcement of a law banning UNRWA operations signalled a hardening political stance, reviving concerns of internal instability and nudging the June‑30 probability upward again.

Israel strikes Hezbollah health center in Lebanon, killing 12 medical workers

June 30 surges to 62%23%

A deadly Israeli strike on a Hezbollah-run health center in Lebanon intensified the conflict, raising security concerns that could influence political stability in Israel.

Gadi Eisenkot announces resignation from Knesset over leadership election differences

June 30 drops to 40%10%

Eisenkot announced he would resign from the Knesset and not participate in the next election, citing disagreements over how to hold a leadership election for Benny Gantz's National Unity party.

Knesset passes controversial legislation amid political tensions

June 30 surges to 68%29%

The Knesset passed significant legislation that stirred political tensions within the coalition and opposition, causing market volatility and a temporary increase in the perceived likelihood of dissolution by June 30.

Knesset passes first reading of 2026 state budget after resolving Haredi crisis

June 30 plunges to 47%20%

The Knesset approved the first reading of the state budget, temporarily easing the immediate threat of automatic dissolution, though two more readings were still required before March 31.

Netanyahu and Smotrich announce shelving of Haredi draft exemption bill to pass budget

June 30 drops to 26%5%