Recent forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF place Guangzhou's September 1 overnight low near the 24–25 °C historical average, yet trader odds remain nearly even between 30 °C or higher (46.5 %) and 20 °C or below (45.0 %). A northwesterly flow and lingering moisture from early-season troughs and potential South China Sea disturbances introduce model spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover, directly affecting minimum temperatures. Stronger winds and clearer skies favor cooler readings near 22–23 °C, while humid, calm conditions under subtropical high pressure could hold lows above 26 °C. With resolution in under 48 hours, the next official China Meteorological Administration update and any revised model runs will likely sharpen the market-implied distribution around these thresholds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 1?
Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 1?
30°C or higher 97%
20°C or below 94%
24°C 49%
27°C 49%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 1, 2026
20°C or below
94%
21°C
47%
22°C
24%
23°C
25%
24°C
49%
25°C
45%
26°C
26%
27°C
49%
28°C
49%
29°C
49%
30°C or higher
97%
30°C or higher 97%
20°C or below 94%
24°C 49%
27°C 49%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 1, 2026
20°C or below
$0 ปริมาณ
94%
21°C
$0 ปริมาณ
47%
22°C
$0 ปริมาณ
24%
23°C
$0 ปริมาณ
25%
24°C
$0 ปริมาณ
49%
25°C
$0 ปริมาณ
45%
26°C
$0 ปริมาณ
26%
27°C
$0 ปริมาณ
49%
28°C
$0 ปริมาณ
49%
29°C
$0 ปริมาณ
49%
30°C or higher
$0 ปริมาณ
97%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF place Guangzhou's September 1 overnight low near the 24–25 °C historical average, yet trader odds remain nearly even between 30 °C or higher (46.5 %) and 20 °C or below (45.0 %). A northwesterly flow and lingering moisture from early-season troughs and potential South China Sea disturbances introduce model spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover, directly affecting minimum temperatures. Stronger winds and clearer skies favor cooler readings near 22–23 °C, while humid, calm conditions under subtropical high pressure could hold lows above 26 °C. With resolution in under 48 hours, the next official China Meteorological Administration update and any revised model runs will likely sharpen the market-implied distribution around these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 30, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 30, 2026, 12:31 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF place Guangzhou's September 1 overnight low near the 24–25 °C historical average, yet trader odds remain nearly even between 30 °C or higher (46.5 %) and 20 °C or below (45.0 %). A northwesterly flow and lingering moisture from early-season troughs and potential South China Sea disturbances introduce model spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover, directly affecting minimum temperatures. Stronger winds and clearer skies favor cooler readings near 22–23 °C, while humid, calm conditions under subtropical high pressure could hold lows above 26 °C. With resolution in under 48 hours, the next official China Meteorological Administration update and any revised model runs will likely sharpen the market-implied distribution around these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 30, 2026, 12:31 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF place Guangzhou's September 1 overnight low near the 24–25 °C historical average, yet trader odds remain nearly even between 30 °C or higher (46.5 %) and 20 °C or below (45.0 %). A northwesterly flow and lingering moisture from early-season troughs and potential South China Sea disturbances introduce model spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover, directly affecting minimum temperatures. Stronger winds and clearer skies favor cooler readings near 22–23 °C, while humid, calm conditions under subtropical high pressure could hold lows above 26 °C. With resolution in under 48 hours, the next official China Meteorological Administration update and any revised model runs will likely sharpen the market-implied distribution around these thresholds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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