**Market-implied odds cluster around mid-70s°F for NYC’s minimum temperature on August 10, reflecting tight uncertainty in the overnight low.** Forecasters and traders are focused on the strength of the warm, humid airmass currently in place, with dew points near 70°F limiting radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Model consensus from NWS and private guidance points to a minimum near 75–77°F at Central Park or LaGuardia, where the urban heat island effect keeps readings several degrees above surrounding areas. Subtle differences in cloud cover timing, boundary-layer mixing, or a weak sea-breeze shift could drop the low into the low- or mid-70s, which is why those bins hold the highest probabilities. Historical August minima average near 70°F, but the current pattern favors warmer overnight readings consistent with the elevated trader consensus. Updated model runs tonight and the 00Z/12Z NWS forecast discussions will provide the next clear signal before the observation period begins.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in NYC on August 10?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 10?
76-77°F 27%
74-75°F 23%
78-79°F 18%
72-73°F 16%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 10, 2026
63°F or below
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
4%
70-71°F
7%
72-73°F
16%
74-75°F
23%
76-77°F
27%
78-79°F
18%
80-81°F
2%
82°F or higher
2%
76-77°F 27%
74-75°F 23%
78-79°F 18%
72-73°F 16%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 10, 2026
63°F or below
$31 ปริมาณ
<1%
64-65°F
$31 ปริมาณ
<1%
66-67°F
$10 ปริมาณ
1%
68-69°F
$32 ปริมาณ
4%
70-71°F
$133 ปริมาณ
7%
72-73°F
$85 ปริมาณ
16%
74-75°F
$142 ปริมาณ
23%
76-77°F
$40 ปริมาณ
27%
78-79°F
$98 ปริมาณ
18%
80-81°F
$40 ปริมาณ
2%
82°F or higher
$92 ปริมาณ
2%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds cluster around mid-70s°F for NYC’s minimum temperature on August 10, reflecting tight uncertainty in the overnight low.** Forecasters and traders are focused on the strength of the warm, humid airmass currently in place, with dew points near 70°F limiting radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Model consensus from NWS and private guidance points to a minimum near 75–77°F at Central Park or LaGuardia, where the urban heat island effect keeps readings several degrees above surrounding areas. Subtle differences in cloud cover timing, boundary-layer mixing, or a weak sea-breeze shift could drop the low into the low- or mid-70s, which is why those bins hold the highest probabilities. Historical August minima average near 70°F, but the current pattern favors warmer overnight readings consistent with the elevated trader consensus. Updated model runs tonight and the 00Z/12Z NWS forecast discussions will provide the next clear signal before the observation period begins.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 8, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$734วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 10, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 8, 2026, 9:30 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds cluster around mid-70s°F for NYC’s minimum temperature on August 10, reflecting tight uncertainty in the overnight low.** Forecasters and traders are focused on the strength of the warm, humid airmass currently in place, with dew points near 70°F limiting radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Model consensus from NWS and private guidance points to a minimum near 75–77°F at Central Park or LaGuardia, where the urban heat island effect keeps readings several degrees above surrounding areas. Subtle differences in cloud cover timing, boundary-layer mixing, or a weak sea-breeze shift could drop the low into the low- or mid-70s, which is why those bins hold the highest probabilities. Historical August minima average near 70°F, but the current pattern favors warmer overnight readings consistent with the elevated trader consensus. Updated model runs tonight and the 00Z/12Z NWS forecast discussions will provide the next clear signal before the observation period begins.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$734วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 10, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 8, 2026, 9:30 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds cluster around mid-70s°F for NYC’s minimum temperature on August 10, reflecting tight uncertainty in the overnight low.** Forecasters and traders are focused on the strength of the warm, humid airmass currently in place, with dew points near 70°F limiting radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Model consensus from NWS and private guidance points to a minimum near 75–77°F at Central Park or LaGuardia, where the urban heat island effect keeps readings several degrees above surrounding areas. Subtle differences in cloud cover timing, boundary-layer mixing, or a weak sea-breeze shift could drop the low into the low- or mid-70s, which is why those bins hold the highest probabilities. Historical August minima average near 70°F, but the current pattern favors warmer overnight readings consistent with the elevated trader consensus. Updated model runs tonight and the 00Z/12Z NWS forecast discussions will provide the next clear signal before the observation period begins.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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