**Forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and other models indicate a minimum temperature near 24°C for Tokyo on September 1, 2026, under mostly cloudy conditions with light northeast winds and high humidity.** This aligns with the market's strongest implied probabilities for 24°C (45%), 23°C (28.5%), and 25°C (25%), reflecting trader consensus on typical late-summer nocturnal temperatures. Persistent residual heat (残暑) across eastern Japan, driven by high pressure and warm air advection, has kept overnight lows elevated, with recent JMA outlooks projecting minima of 24–25°C. Historical early-September averages for Tokyo hover near 22–24°C, but current model runs show limited overnight radiative cooling due to cloud cover and moisture. No major frontal passages or typhoon influences are expected to arrive in time to drop temperatures below this range before September 1. Upcoming JMA and ensemble forecast updates in the next 24–48 hours will refine the exact minimum, particularly any shifts in cloudiness or wind patterns that could alter the low by 1–2°C. These near-term model adjustments represent the key variables that could shift the tight clustering of probabilities around 23–25°C.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 1?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 1?
24°C 45%
23°C 28%
25°C 25%
22°C 17%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 1, 2026
19°C or below
2%
20°C
14%
21°C
16%
22°C
17%
23°C
28%
24°C
45%
25°C
25%
26°C
17%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C or higher
<1%
24°C 45%
23°C 28%
25°C 25%
22°C 17%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 1, 2026
19°C or below
$0 ปริมาณ
2%
20°C
$0 ปริมาณ
14%
21°C
$0 ปริมาณ
16%
22°C
$0 ปริมาณ
17%
23°C
$0 ปริมาณ
28%
24°C
$5 ปริมาณ
45%
25°C
$0 ปริมาณ
25%
26°C
$0 ปริมาณ
17%
27°C
$0 ปริมาณ
1%
28°C
$0 ปริมาณ
1%
29°C or higher
$0 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and other models indicate a minimum temperature near 24°C for Tokyo on September 1, 2026, under mostly cloudy conditions with light northeast winds and high humidity.** This aligns with the market's strongest implied probabilities for 24°C (45%), 23°C (28.5%), and 25°C (25%), reflecting trader consensus on typical late-summer nocturnal temperatures.
Persistent residual heat (残暑) across eastern Japan, driven by high pressure and warm air advection, has kept overnight lows elevated, with recent JMA outlooks projecting minima of 24–25°C. Historical early-September averages for Tokyo hover near 22–24°C, but current model runs show limited overnight radiative cooling due to cloud cover and moisture. No major frontal passages or typhoon influences are expected to arrive in time to drop temperatures below this range before September 1.
Upcoming JMA and ensemble forecast updates in the next 24–48 hours will refine the exact minimum, particularly any shifts in cloudiness or wind patterns that could alter the low by 1–2°C. These near-term model adjustments represent the key variables that could shift the tight clustering of probabilities around 23–25°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and other models indicate a minimum temperature near 24°C for Tokyo on September 1, 2026, under mostly cloudy conditions with light northeast winds and high humidity.** This aligns with the market's strongest implied probabilities for 24°C (45%), 23°C (28.5%), and 25°C (25%), reflecting trader consensus on typical late-summer nocturnal temperatures.
Persistent residual heat (残暑) across eastern Japan, driven by high pressure and warm air advection, has kept overnight lows elevated, with recent JMA outlooks projecting minima of 24–25°C. Historical early-September averages for Tokyo hover near 22–24°C, but current model runs show limited overnight radiative cooling due to cloud cover and moisture. No major frontal passages or typhoon influences are expected to arrive in time to drop temperatures below this range before September 1.
Upcoming JMA and ensemble forecast updates in the next 24–48 hours will refine the exact minimum, particularly any shifts in cloudiness or wind patterns that could alter the low by 1–2°C. These near-term model adjustments represent the key variables that could shift the tight clustering of probabilities around 23–25°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and other models indicate a minimum temperature near 24°C for Tokyo on September 1, 2026, under mostly cloudy conditions with light northeast winds and high humidity.** This aligns with the market's strongest implied probabilities for 24°C (45%), 23°C (28.5%), and 25°C (25%), reflecting trader consensus on typical late-summer nocturnal temperatures. Persistent residual heat (残暑) across eastern Japan, driven by high pressure and warm air advection, has kept overnight lows elevated, with recent JMA outlooks projecting minima of 24–25°C. Historical early-September averages for Tokyo hover near 22–24°C, but current model runs show limited overnight radiative cooling due to cloud cover and moisture. No major frontal passages or typhoon influences are expected to arrive in time to drop temperatures below this range before September 1. Upcoming JMA and ensemble forecast updates in the next 24–48 hours will refine the exact minimum, particularly any shifts in cloudiness or wind patterns that could alter the low by 1–2°C. These near-term model adjustments represent the key variables that could shift the tight clustering of probabilities around 23–25°C.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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