Forecast models from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency and international agencies converge on a daytime high near 30–32°C for Tokyo on September 1, driven by moderate northeasterly flow, partial cloud cover limiting peak insolation, and dew points near 22–24°C that moderate surface heating. Recent 48-hour model runs show slight cooling from earlier warm bias as a weak frontal boundary approaches, keeping the daily maximum below late-August peaks while remaining above the long-term September 1 average of roughly 29°C. This narrow range explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 30–31°C, with traders weighting ensemble consensus and historical verification of similar late-summer setups.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 1?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 1?
30°C 33%
31°C 29%
29°C 16%
32°C 9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 1, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
3%
28°C
7%
29°C
16%
30°C
33%
31°C
29%
32°C
9%
33°C
5%
34°C
4%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
1%
30°C 33%
31°C 29%
29°C 16%
32°C 9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 1, 2026
26°C or below
$157 ปริมาณ
<1%
27°C
$0 ปริมาณ
3%
28°C
$75 ปริมาณ
7%
29°C
$59 ปริมาณ
16%
30°C
$76 ปริมาณ
33%
31°C
$185 ปริมาณ
29%
32°C
$175 ปริมาณ
9%
33°C
$56 ปริมาณ
5%
34°C
$58 ปริมาณ
4%
35°C
$25 ปริมาณ
1%
36°C or higher
$36 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency and international agencies converge on a daytime high near 30–32°C for Tokyo on September 1, driven by moderate northeasterly flow, partial cloud cover limiting peak insolation, and dew points near 22–24°C that moderate surface heating. Recent 48-hour model runs show slight cooling from earlier warm bias as a weak frontal boundary approaches, keeping the daily maximum below late-August peaks while remaining above the long-term September 1 average of roughly 29°C. This narrow range explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 30–31°C, with traders weighting ensemble consensus and historical verification of similar late-summer setups.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$903วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency and international agencies converge on a daytime high near 30–32°C for Tokyo on September 1, driven by moderate northeasterly flow, partial cloud cover limiting peak insolation, and dew points near 22–24°C that moderate surface heating. Recent 48-hour model runs show slight cooling from earlier warm bias as a weak frontal boundary approaches, keeping the daily maximum below late-August peaks while remaining above the long-term September 1 average of roughly 29°C. This narrow range explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 30–31°C, with traders weighting ensemble consensus and historical verification of similar late-summer setups.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$903วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency and international agencies converge on a daytime high near 30–32°C for Tokyo on September 1, driven by moderate northeasterly flow, partial cloud cover limiting peak insolation, and dew points near 22–24°C that moderate surface heating. Recent 48-hour model runs show slight cooling from earlier warm bias as a weak frontal boundary approaches, keeping the daily maximum below late-August peaks while remaining above the long-term September 1 average of roughly 29°C. This narrow range explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 30–31°C, with traders weighting ensemble consensus and historical verification of similar late-summer setups.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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