Recent forecast consensus from models such as ECMWF and local meteorological guidance points to overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and a mild maritime air mass, positioning the daily minimum near 15–16 °C and driving the 45 % and 34 % market-implied probabilities for those exact values. Seasonal climatology for late August in Warsaw shows average lows of 12–14 °C, but persistent cloud cover and light southerly flow have limited nocturnal temperature drops below this range over the past 48 hours. Official station data from Warsaw Okęcie will resolve the market once the 24-hour minimum is recorded, with any late-evening clearing potentially allowing brief further cooling toward 14 °C. Traders appear to weigh the balance between model spread in boundary-layer moisture and the narrow historical variability for this date.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Warsaw on August 21?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 21?
15°C 34%
14°C 30%
13°C 2%
12°C or below <1%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 21, 2026
12°C or below
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
30%
15°C
34%
16°C
45%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
15°C 34%
14°C 30%
13°C 2%
12°C or below <1%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 21, 2026
12°C or below
$100 ปริมาณ
1%
13°C
$119 ปริมาณ
2%
14°C
$75 ปริมาณ
30%
15°C
$0 ปริมาณ
34%
16°C
$26 ปริมาณ
45%
17°C
$1,970 ปริมาณ
<1%
18°C
$153 ปริมาณ
<1%
19°C
$129 ปริมาณ
<1%
20°C
$129 ปริมาณ
<1%
21°C
$129 ปริมาณ
<1%
22°C or higher
$160 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models such as ECMWF and local meteorological guidance points to overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and a mild maritime air mass, positioning the daily minimum near 15–16 °C and driving the 45 % and 34 % market-implied probabilities for those exact values. Seasonal climatology for late August in Warsaw shows average lows of 12–14 °C, but persistent cloud cover and light southerly flow have limited nocturnal temperature drops below this range over the past 48 hours. Official station data from Warsaw Okęcie will resolve the market once the 24-hour minimum is recorded, with any late-evening clearing potentially allowing brief further cooling toward 14 °C. Traders appear to weigh the balance between model spread in boundary-layer moisture and the narrow historical variability for this date.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 20, 2026, 1:29 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,990วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 21, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 1:29 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models such as ECMWF and local meteorological guidance points to overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and a mild maritime air mass, positioning the daily minimum near 15–16 °C and driving the 45 % and 34 % market-implied probabilities for those exact values. Seasonal climatology for late August in Warsaw shows average lows of 12–14 °C, but persistent cloud cover and light southerly flow have limited nocturnal temperature drops below this range over the past 48 hours. Official station data from Warsaw Okęcie will resolve the market once the 24-hour minimum is recorded, with any late-evening clearing potentially allowing brief further cooling toward 14 °C. Traders appear to weigh the balance between model spread in boundary-layer moisture and the narrow historical variability for this date.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,990วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 21, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 1:29 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from models such as ECMWF and local meteorological guidance points to overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and a mild maritime air mass, positioning the daily minimum near 15–16 °C and driving the 45 % and 34 % market-implied probabilities for those exact values. Seasonal climatology for late August in Warsaw shows average lows of 12–14 °C, but persistent cloud cover and light southerly flow have limited nocturnal temperature drops below this range over the past 48 hours. Official station data from Warsaw Okęcie will resolve the market once the 24-hour minimum is recorded, with any late-evening clearing potentially allowing brief further cooling toward 14 °C. Traders appear to weigh the balance between model spread in boundary-layer moisture and the narrow historical variability for this date.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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