Trader consensus assigns the strongest implied probability to a minimum Arctic sea ice extent below 4 million square kilometers this summer, reflecting the record-low winter maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers reached on March 15 according to NSIDC data. This unusually thin starting ice cover, statistically tied with 2025 for the lowest in the satellite record, has already produced near-record low extents and volumes through April and mid-May 2026. Persistent warm Atlantic inflows into the Barents Sea and regional atmospheric patterns continue to accelerate early melt, while the long-term downward trend in Arctic ice provides climatological context for further losses during the peak melt season. Updated NSIDC observations and forecast model runs through early summer will be key variables for traders monitoring potential shifts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
<4m sq km 57%
4.0-4.2m sq km 13.6%
4.2-4.4m sq km 12.5%
4.4-4.6m sq km 8.1%
$48,608 ปริมาณ
$48,608 ปริมาณ
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
57%
4.0-4.2m sq km
14%
4.2-4.4m sq km
13%
4.4-4.6m sq km
8%
4.6-4.8m sq km
6%
4.8-5m sq km
2%
5m+ sq km
2%
<4m sq km 57%
4.0-4.2m sq km 13.6%
4.2-4.4m sq km 12.5%
4.4-4.6m sq km 8.1%
$48,608 ปริมาณ
$48,608 ปริมาณ
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
$25,113 ปริมาณ
57%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$3,459 ปริมาณ
14%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$1,313 ปริมาณ
13%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$1,381 ปริมาณ
8%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$2,948 ปริมาณ
6%
4.8-5m sq km
$1,199 ปริมาณ
2%
5m+ sq km
$13,195 ปริมาณ
2%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus assigns the strongest implied probability to a minimum Arctic sea ice extent below 4 million square kilometers this summer, reflecting the record-low winter maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers reached on March 15 according to NSIDC data. This unusually thin starting ice cover, statistically tied with 2025 for the lowest in the satellite record, has already produced near-record low extents and volumes through April and mid-May 2026. Persistent warm Atlantic inflows into the Barents Sea and regional atmospheric patterns continue to accelerate early melt, while the long-term downward trend in Arctic ice provides climatological context for further losses during the peak melt season. Updated NSIDC observations and forecast model runs through early summer will be key variables for traders monitoring potential shifts.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$48,608วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus assigns the strongest implied probability to a minimum Arctic sea ice extent below 4 million square kilometers this summer, reflecting the record-low winter maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers reached on March 15 according to NSIDC data. This unusually thin starting ice cover, statistically tied with 2025 for the lowest in the satellite record, has already produced near-record low extents and volumes through April and mid-May 2026. Persistent warm Atlantic inflows into the Barents Sea and regional atmospheric patterns continue to accelerate early melt, while the long-term downward trend in Arctic ice provides climatological context for further losses during the peak melt season. Updated NSIDC observations and forecast model runs through early summer will be key variables for traders monitoring potential shifts.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$48,608วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns the strongest implied probability to a minimum Arctic sea ice extent below 4 million square kilometers this summer, reflecting the record-low winter maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers reached on March 15 according to NSIDC data. This unusually thin starting ice cover, statistically tied with 2025 for the lowest in the satellite record, has already produced near-record low extents and volumes through April and mid-May 2026. Persistent warm Atlantic inflows into the Barents Sea and regional atmospheric patterns continue to accelerate early melt, while the long-term downward trend in Arctic ice provides climatological context for further losses during the peak melt season. Updated NSIDC observations and forecast model runs through early summer will be key variables for traders monitoring potential shifts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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