Labour secured the second-highest seat total in New Zealand’s 7 November 2026 general election under MMP, with preliminary results giving National 42 seats, Labour 36, the Greens 16, ACT 13, New Zealand First 12, and smaller parties fewer. National’s strong electorate wins created an 11-seat overhang that boosted its total while limiting list allocations, leaving Labour clearly ahead of all other parties on current counts. Special votes still to be tallied by 27 November could adjust a handful of seats, yet the scale of the gap makes any reordering that elevates another party above Labour unlikely. Traders therefore assign Labour an overwhelming implied probability for second place, with only remote scenarios—such as an unusually large swing in remaining ballots or multiple recounts—capable of altering the outcome.