Recent polling averages in Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District show Democratic challenger Bob Brooks ahead of Republican incumbent Ryan Mackenzie by roughly five to six points among likely voters, with multiple October surveys placing Brooks at 49% and Mackenzie at 43-44%. This margin has contributed to the shift in trader consensus reflected in current market prices. The Lehigh Valley swing district, which favored Republicans by a narrow margin in 2024, features strong Brooks support among women, independents, younger voters, and people of color, while Mackenzie’s job approval remains underwater. Forecasters have moved the contest from toss-up to lean Democratic in recent weeks amid the polling trend and national environment. With Election Day on November 3, the outcome hinges on final turnout and any late shifts among undecided voters.