Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% implied probability for Strait of Hormuz transit calls returning to a 7-day moving average of at least 60 ships—pre-crisis normal—by December 31, 2026, reflecting optimism that current restrictions from the US-Iran naval standoff will ease amid mounting economic pressures. Daily transits hover at 10-17 vessels versus normal 60-138, with oil throughput at 5% of baseline and war risk insurance premiums at 4.5% (30x normal), sustaining Brent crude above $100 per barrel and $3.7 billion in daily global trade costs. Recent stability—no clashes since May 10—plus Pakistan-mediated peace talks stalled on nuclear issues but backed by a UN ceasefire call on May 11 and Trump's operational pause May 5, underpin the shift, with traders betting diplomatic breakthroughs or Iran's fiscal strain (90% oil exports via Hormuz) catalyze normalization well before year-end. Key watch: IMF Portwatch data and talk milestones.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
$87,555 ปริมาณ
$87,555 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
$87,555 ปริมาณ
$87,555 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% implied probability for Strait of Hormuz transit calls returning to a 7-day moving average of at least 60 ships—pre-crisis normal—by December 31, 2026, reflecting optimism that current restrictions from the US-Iran naval standoff will ease amid mounting economic pressures. Daily transits hover at 10-17 vessels versus normal 60-138, with oil throughput at 5% of baseline and war risk insurance premiums at 4.5% (30x normal), sustaining Brent crude above $100 per barrel and $3.7 billion in daily global trade costs. Recent stability—no clashes since May 10—plus Pakistan-mediated peace talks stalled on nuclear issues but backed by a UN ceasefire call on May 11 and Trump's operational pause May 5, underpin the shift, with traders betting diplomatic breakthroughs or Iran's fiscal strain (90% oil exports via Hormuz) catalyze normalization well before year-end. Key watch: IMF Portwatch data and talk milestones.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$87,555วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% implied probability for Strait of Hormuz transit calls returning to a 7-day moving average of at least 60 ships—pre-crisis normal—by December 31, 2026, reflecting optimism that current restrictions from the US-Iran naval standoff will ease amid mounting economic pressures. Daily transits hover at 10-17 vessels versus normal 60-138, with oil throughput at 5% of baseline and war risk insurance premiums at 4.5% (30x normal), sustaining Brent crude above $100 per barrel and $3.7 billion in daily global trade costs. Recent stability—no clashes since May 10—plus Pakistan-mediated peace talks stalled on nuclear issues but backed by a UN ceasefire call on May 11 and Trump's operational pause May 5, underpin the shift, with traders betting diplomatic breakthroughs or Iran's fiscal strain (90% oil exports via Hormuz) catalyze normalization well before year-end. Key watch: IMF Portwatch data and talk milestones.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$87,555วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 77.5% implied probability for Strait of Hormuz transit calls returning to a 7-day moving average of at least 60 ships—pre-crisis normal—by December 31, 2026, reflecting optimism that current restrictions from the US-Iran naval standoff will ease amid mounting economic pressures. Daily transits hover at 10-17 vessels versus normal 60-138, with oil throughput at 5% of baseline and war risk insurance premiums at 4.5% (30x normal), sustaining Brent crude above $100 per barrel and $3.7 billion in daily global trade costs. Recent stability—no clashes since May 10—plus Pakistan-mediated peace talks stalled on nuclear issues but backed by a UN ceasefire call on May 11 and Trump's operational pause May 5, underpin the shift, with traders betting diplomatic breakthroughs or Iran's fiscal strain (90% oil exports via Hormuz) catalyze normalization well before year-end. Key watch: IMF Portwatch data and talk milestones.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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