The U.S. Embassy in Beirut has remained operational with core diplomatic and emergency consular staff since the February 2026 ordered departure of non-essential personnel and families amid regional tensions involving Hezbollah, Israel, and Iran. Recent U.S.-facilitated trilateral ceasefire understandings in early June, requiring Hezbollah withdrawals south of the Litani River, have contributed to a relatively stable environment with no new directives for full embassy evacuation. Traders assign a 97.4% probability to “No” because scheduled operations continue, commercial flights remain available for any private departures, and no primary-source announcements signal an imminent full-scale pullout by the June 30 deadline. A sudden major escalation, breakdown of the ceasefire, or direct threat to the embassy compound could still shift the outcome, though such developments would require rapid deterioration within the narrow remaining window.