The short remaining timeline to the end of 2026, combined with China's emphasis on sustained military pressure short of direct conflict, underpins the 98.5% trader consensus against an invasion. Recent unannounced drills involving over 100 vessels in the western Pacific and around Taiwan, characterized by Taipei as "silent intimidation" ahead of the APEC summit, reflect ongoing efforts to simulate operations and deter independence moves without crossing into full-scale amphibious assault preparations. Xi Jinping's November 12 speech reiterated calls for peaceful reunification without referencing force, aligning with U.S. assessments from October that PLA readiness gaps and interest in Taiwan's 2028 elections reduce near-term invasion risks. Scenarios that could still shift odds include abrupt escalation from current naval activity or unforeseen summit outcomes, though both remain low-probability within the narrow window.