Traders assign a 96.2% probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026 because Beijing has sustained gray-zone pressure through routine coast guard patrols, research vessel operations east of the island, and normalized PLA aircraft and naval transits rather than visible large-scale amphibious mobilization. Taiwan has responded with record defense budgets exceeding 3% of GDP, expanded Han Kuang exercises testing anti-blockade and cyber resilience scenarios, and drone procurement programs, while U.S. naval transits and joint drills continue to signal extended deterrence. Xi Jinping has reiterated reunification goals in recent speeches without announcing imminent military timelines, consistent with assessments of high operational risks, economic costs, and leadership concerns over uncertain outcomes. A sudden shift would require detectable force movements or major diplomatic rupture within the narrow remaining window, neither of which has materialized.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วจีนจะบุกไต้หวันภายในสิ้นปี 2026 หรือไม่?
จีนจะบุกไต้หวันภายในสิ้นปี 2026 หรือไม่?
ใช่
$40,230,525 ปริมาณ
$40,230,525 ปริมาณ
ใช่
$40,230,525 ปริมาณ
$40,230,525 ปริมาณ
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Traders assign a 96.2% probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026 because Beijing has sustained gray-zone pressure through routine coast guard patrols, research vessel operations east of the island, and normalized PLA aircraft and naval transits rather than visible large-scale amphibious mobilization. Taiwan has responded with record defense budgets exceeding 3% of GDP, expanded Han Kuang exercises testing anti-blockade and cyber resilience scenarios, and drone procurement programs, while U.S. naval transits and joint drills continue to signal extended deterrence. Xi Jinping has reiterated reunification goals in recent speeches without announcing imminent military timelines, consistent with assessments of high operational risks, economic costs, and leadership concerns over uncertain outcomes. A sudden shift would require detectable force movements or major diplomatic rupture within the narrow remaining window, neither of which has materialized.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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