Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center diagnostics show El Niño conditions strengthening rapidly, with equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C in the Niño 3.4 region and atmospheric coupling supportive of further intensification. Official outlooks assign greater than 90% probability to a very strong event (often termed Super El Niño) during fall and winter 2026-27, consistent with multi-model consensus projecting peak three-month averages near or above historic thresholds like +2.5°C on the Relative Niño Index. This robust scientific backing underpins the market's 92.2% implied probability for yes. Uncertainties remain around exact peak magnitude due to potential model spread or sudden shifts in trade winds, though the next ENSO discussion on September 10 will provide updated guidance.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
92% โอกาส
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Apr 1, 2027
92% โอกาส
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ใหม่
Apr 1, 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center diagnostics show El Niño conditions strengthening rapidly, with equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C in the Niño 3.4 region and atmospheric coupling supportive of further intensification. Official outlooks assign greater than 90% probability to a very strong event (often termed Super El Niño) during fall and winter 2026-27, consistent with multi-model consensus projecting peak three-month averages near or above historic thresholds like +2.5°C on the Relative Niño Index. This robust scientific backing underpins the market's 92.2% implied probability for yes. Uncertainties remain around exact peak magnitude due to potential model spread or sudden shifts in trade winds, though the next ENSO discussion on September 10 will provide updated guidance.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,506วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center diagnostics show El Niño conditions strengthening rapidly, with equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C in the Niño 3.4 region and atmospheric coupling supportive of further intensification. Official outlooks assign greater than 90% probability to a very strong event (often termed Super El Niño) during fall and winter 2026-27, consistent with multi-model consensus projecting peak three-month averages near or above historic thresholds like +2.5°C on the Relative Niño Index. This robust scientific backing underpins the market's 92.2% implied probability for yes. Uncertainties remain around exact peak magnitude due to potential model spread or sudden shifts in trade winds, though the next ENSO discussion on September 10 will provide updated guidance.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,506วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center diagnostics show El Niño conditions strengthening rapidly, with equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C in the Niño 3.4 region and atmospheric coupling supportive of further intensification. Official outlooks assign greater than 90% probability to a very strong event (often termed Super El Niño) during fall and winter 2026-27, consistent with multi-model consensus projecting peak three-month averages near or above historic thresholds like +2.5°C on the Relative Niño Index. This robust scientific backing underpins the market's 92.2% implied probability for yes. Uncertainties remain around exact peak magnitude due to potential model spread or sudden shifts in trade winds, though the next ENSO discussion on September 10 will provide updated guidance.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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