The SNP's strong position in the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry constituency, following Stephen Gethins's resignation after his Scottish Parliament election win, underpins trader consensus around Lara Bird as the leading candidate. Bird secured the party nomination after an internal selection process and has benefited from active local campaigning in the final week before the 18 June vote. The five confirmed candidates—representing the SNP, Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and Reform UK—reflect standard first-past-the-post dynamics in a Scottish seat with historical SNP support. Lower probabilities for other named contenders align with their party standings and limited visibility in recent campaign updates, while the by-election timing alongside similar contests in Aberdeen South and Makerfield has kept focus on turnout and local issues.