The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its overnight rate at 2.25% on April 29 anchors the 96.2% market-implied probability of no change at the June 10 announcement. Persistent slack in the economy, evidenced by an unemployment rate near 6.7% and an output gap in the -1.5% to -0.5% range, continues to outweigh the temporary lift in headline CPI to 2.4% in March from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments. Core inflation measures remain anchored near 2.2%, consistent with the Bank’s base-case projection for inflation to ease back to the 2% target by early 2027. Traders therefore price continuity in the absence of data showing sustained pass-through to broader prices. A hotter-than-expected May CPI release or signs of accelerating growth could introduce modest upward pressure on rates, though such shifts remain low-probability scenarios under current conditions.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateBank of Canada decision in June?
Bank of Canada decision in June?
No change 96.2%
Increase 2.8%
25 bps decrease 1.4%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$26,429 Vol.
$26,429 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
96%
Increase
3%
No change 96.2%
Increase 2.8%
25 bps decrease 1.4%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$26,429 Vol.
$26,429 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$4,584 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$4,363 Vol.
1%
No change
$9,472 Vol.
96%
Increase
$8,011 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its overnight rate at 2.25% on April 29 anchors the 96.2% market-implied probability of no change at the June 10 announcement. Persistent slack in the economy, evidenced by an unemployment rate near 6.7% and an output gap in the -1.5% to -0.5% range, continues to outweigh the temporary lift in headline CPI to 2.4% in March from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments. Core inflation measures remain anchored near 2.2%, consistent with the Bank’s base-case projection for inflation to ease back to the 2% target by early 2027. Traders therefore price continuity in the absence of data showing sustained pass-through to broader prices. A hotter-than-expected May CPI release or signs of accelerating growth could introduce modest upward pressure on rates, though such shifts remain low-probability scenarios under current conditions.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Binuksan ang Market: Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ET
Volume
$26,429Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 10, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its overnight rate at 2.25% on April 29 anchors the 96.2% market-implied probability of no change at the June 10 announcement. Persistent slack in the economy, evidenced by an unemployment rate near 6.7% and an output gap in the -1.5% to -0.5% range, continues to outweigh the temporary lift in headline CPI to 2.4% in March from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments. Core inflation measures remain anchored near 2.2%, consistent with the Bank’s base-case projection for inflation to ease back to the 2% target by early 2027. Traders therefore price continuity in the absence of data showing sustained pass-through to broader prices. A hotter-than-expected May CPI release or signs of accelerating growth could introduce modest upward pressure on rates, though such shifts remain low-probability scenarios under current conditions.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$26,429Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 10, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its overnight rate at 2.25% on April 29 anchors the 96.2% market-implied probability of no change at the June 10 announcement. Persistent slack in the economy, evidenced by an unemployment rate near 6.7% and an output gap in the -1.5% to -0.5% range, continues to outweigh the temporary lift in headline CPI to 2.4% in March from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments. Core inflation measures remain anchored near 2.2%, consistent with the Bank’s base-case projection for inflation to ease back to the 2% target by early 2027. Traders therefore price continuity in the absence of data showing sustained pass-through to broader prices. A hotter-than-expected May CPI release or signs of accelerating growth could introduce modest upward pressure on rates, though such shifts remain low-probability scenarios under current conditions.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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