The Bank of Canada’s April 29, 2026, decision to hold the overnight rate steady at 2.25% underpins the overwhelming 96.7% market-implied odds of no change at the June 10 announcement. Governor Tiff Macklem described the current stance as broadly appropriate given the central bank’s base-case outlook of moderate GDP growth near 1.5–1.9% and inflation pressures from higher energy prices that are expected to prove transitory before returning to the 2% target in 2027. Traders are pricing in stability because recent data show the economy absorbing U.S. tariff effects without triggering sustained price pressures or labor-market deterioration, while forward-looking indicators point to limited near-term rate adjustments. A sharper-than-expected inflation spike from Middle East supply disruptions or resilient domestic demand could introduce modest hike probabilities, whereas a pronounced slowdown in growth might reopen cut discussions.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateBank of Canada decision in June?
No change 96.6%
Increase 2.4%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$26,774 Vol.
$26,774 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
97%
Increase
2%
No change 96.6%
Increase 2.4%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$26,774 Vol.
$26,774 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
97%
Increase
2%
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Binuksan ang Market: Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Canada’s April 29, 2026, decision to hold the overnight rate steady at 2.25% underpins the overwhelming 96.7% market-implied odds of no change at the June 10 announcement. Governor Tiff Macklem described the current stance as broadly appropriate given the central bank’s base-case outlook of moderate GDP growth near 1.5–1.9% and inflation pressures from higher energy prices that are expected to prove transitory before returning to the 2% target in 2027. Traders are pricing in stability because recent data show the economy absorbing U.S. tariff effects without triggering sustained price pressures or labor-market deterioration, while forward-looking indicators point to limited near-term rate adjustments. A sharper-than-expected inflation spike from Middle East supply disruptions or resilient domestic demand could introduce modest hike probabilities, whereas a pronounced slowdown in growth might reopen cut discussions.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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