José Maria Neves holds a commanding lead in the Cape Verde presidential election market due to his incumbency, the PAICV’s May 2026 parliamentary majority of 37 seats, and his decisive 2021 first-round victory. The November 15 vote features six candidates, with former justice minister Joana Rosa of the MpD as the primary challenger and several independents on the ballot. Traders reflect the limited time remaining before polls close and the structural advantages of party infrastructure, name recognition, and recent legislative momentum. A first-round win would avoid a November 29 runoff, though scenarios such as unusually low turnout, strong diaspora mobilization, or late shifts in voter priorities on employment and migration could still alter the outcome.