Nagwagi ba ang Colombia Presidential Election sa unang round?
Iván Cepeda Castro 85%
Abelardo de la Espriella 16.0%
Paloma Valencia <1%
Vicky Dávila <1%
$5,973,445 Vol.
$5,973,445 Vol.
May 31, 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro
$534,128 Vol.
85%
Abelardo de la Espriella
$1,040,802 Vol.
16%
Paloma Valencia
$593,671 Vol.
<1%
Vicky Dávila
$441,350 Vol.
<1%
Luis Gilberto Murillo
$298,122 Vol.
<1%
Claudia López
$300,293 Vol.
<1%
David Luna Sánchez
$283,057 Vol.
<1%
Juan Daniel Oviedo
$156,932 Vol.
<1%
Gustavo Bolívar
$229,484 Vol.
<1%
Sergio Fajardo
$209,235 Vol.
<1%
Juan Manuel Galán
$235,184 Vol.
<1%
Germán Vargas Lleras
$287,138 Vol.
<1%
Roy Barreras
$285,258 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Quintero
$256,693 Vol.
<1%
Juan Carlos Pinzón
$144,829 Vol.
<1%
Mauricio Cárdenas
$335,378 Vol.
<1%
Enrique Peñalosa
$305,388 Vol.
<1%
Iván Cepeda Castro 85%
Abelardo de la Espriella 16.0%
Paloma Valencia <1%
Vicky Dávila <1%
$5,973,445 Vol.
$5,973,445 Vol.
May 31, 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro
$534,128 Vol.
85%
Abelardo de la Espriella
$1,040,802 Vol.
16%
Paloma Valencia
$593,671 Vol.
<1%
Vicky Dávila
$441,350 Vol.
<1%
Luis Gilberto Murillo
$298,122 Vol.
<1%
Claudia López
$300,293 Vol.
<1%
David Luna Sánchez
$283,057 Vol.
<1%
Juan Daniel Oviedo
$156,932 Vol.
<1%
Gustavo Bolívar
$229,484 Vol.
<1%
Sergio Fajardo
$209,235 Vol.
<1%
Juan Manuel Galán
$235,184 Vol.
<1%
Germán Vargas Lleras
$287,138 Vol.
<1%
Roy Barreras
$285,258 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Quintero
$256,693 Vol.
<1%
Juan Carlos Pinzón
$144,829 Vol.
<1%
Mauricio Cárdenas
$335,378 Vol.
<1%
Enrique Peñalosa
$305,388 Vol.
<1%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Iván Cepeda leads the race as the Historic Pact nominee backed by outgoing President Gustavo Petro’s political machinery, consistently topping recent polls at 34–44 percent while remaining below the 50 percent threshold needed for an outright first-round victory on May 31. The conservative vote remains fragmented between Abelardo de la Espriella, who polls second at roughly 20–23 percent and promotes a hard-line security platform modeled on regional strongmen, and center-right candidate Paloma Valencia at 22–23 percent after her primary win. This split has reinforced trader consensus that Cepeda will finish first. Recent campaign violence, including the killings of two de la Espriella staffers, has added uncertainty to the final weeks but has not altered the underlying polling structure or the strong likelihood of a June runoff.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Iván Cepeda leads the race as the Historic Pact nominee backed by outgoing President Gustavo Petro’s political machinery, consistently topping recent polls at 34–44 percent while remaining below the 50 percent threshold needed for an outright first-round victory on May 31. The conservative vote remains fragmented between Abelardo de la Espriella, who polls second at roughly 20–23 percent and promotes a hard-line security platform modeled on regional strongmen, and center-right candidate Paloma Valencia at 22–23 percent after her primary win. This split has reinforced trader consensus that Cepeda will finish first. Recent campaign violence, including the killings of two de la Espriella staffers, has added uncertainty to the final weeks but has not altered the underlying polling structure or the strong likelihood of a June runoff.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Apr 24 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella gains momentum in presidential race
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 14%7%
The ultraconservative lawyer saw a notable increase in market support as his campaign's 'iron-fisted' platform against criminal groups resonated with voters.
Apr 20 2026
Claudia López drops out and backs Cepeda
Claudia López drops to 0%6%
Claudia López withdrew from the race and threw her support behind Cepeda, causing her market price to fall to zero and further boosting Cepeda’s lead.
Apr 17 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro reaches new peak in market support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 95%9%
Market confidence in Iván Cepeda Castro's victory reached a new high, reflecting his sustained lead and the weakening of alternative candidates.
Apr 15 2026
Vicky Dávila and Luis Gilberto Murillo formally endorse Cepeda
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 94%3%
Both Vicky Dávila and Luis Gilberto Murillo publicly endorsed Iván Cepeda, consolidating the left‑wing bloc and eliminating their own market shares.
Apr 14 2026
Father of killed Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 94%8%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, adding a new dynamic to the crowded field of over two dozen candidates.
Apr 10 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro solidifies lead as Colombia presidential front-runner
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 92%19%
In April 2026, Iván Cepeda Castro's market price surged to 92%, reflecting his solidified position as the leading candidate for Colombia's presidency, with other candidates' chances diminishing to near zero.
Apr 4 2026
Explosive attack kills 13 on bus in southwestern Colombia amid rising violence
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 87%13%
A deadly bombing in Cauca region heightened security concerns and political instability, likely benefiting candidates emphasizing law and order such as Iván Cepeda Castro, who is associated with the left-wing coalition. This event reinforced voter focus on security issues ahead of the election.
Apr 1 2026
Government announces drone‑based coca eradication program
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 91%10%
President Gustavo Petro’s administration unveiled a new drone program to destroy coca crops, boosting security credentials of left‑wing candidates and reinforcing support for Cepeda’s platform.
Mar 15 2026
Interparty primaries narrow Colombia presidential candidate field
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%8%
As the election approached, interparty primaries in early March led to a narrowing of the candidate field, consolidating support around frontrunners like Iván Cepeda Castro and diminishing prospects for others such as Paloma Valencia and David Luna Sánchez.
Mar 11 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro surges in presidential polling
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 79%9%
Following a period of consolidation, Senator Iván Cepeda Castro saw a significant increase in his polling numbers, solidifying his position as a frontrunner in the presidential race.
Mar 5 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella withdraws from race
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 13%6%
Abelardo de la Espriella announced his withdrawal citing personal reasons, causing his market price to tumble as his supporters dispersed.
Mar 3 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro gains momentum in presidential race
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%7%
Following interparty primaries, Senator Iván Cepeda Castro emerged as a frontrunner, causing his market price to rise significantly.
Mar 1 2026
Colombian plane crash kills 15 including congress member Diógenes Quintero
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 76%9%
The tragic crash heightened awareness of security and political risks in Colombia, potentially consolidating support for candidates promising stability and peace, such as Iván Cepeda Castro, who saw increased market support following the incident.
Mar 1 2026
Political tensions rise as President Gustavo Petro clashes with U.S. over Venezuela
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%11%
President Gustavo Petro's confrontational stance against U.S. policies on Venezuela heightened political tensions, influencing the electoral environment and bolstering support for candidates aligned with his coalition, notably Iván Cepeda Castro.
Feb 28 2026
Poll shows Iván Cepeda leading with 68% support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 70%7%
A national poll released by a leading Colombian survey firm placed Iván Cepeda at 68% support, far ahead of any rival, prompting a sharp rise in his market price as voters coalesced around his candidacy.
Feb 10 2026
Colombia announces drone use to destroy coca crops amid cocaine production surge
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 69%8%
The government’s decision to use drones for coca crop eradication signaled a tougher stance on drug trafficking, influencing voter perceptions of candidates' security policies. This likely boosted support for Iván Cepeda Castro, who is part of the ruling coalition addressing these issues.
Jan 28 2026
Father of slain Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 57%10%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential campaign to defend his late son's political legacy despite falling out with the Democratic Center party. This event highlighted the ongoing political violence and instability in Colombia ahead of the 2026 election, potentially impacting voter sentiment and market perceptions of candidate viability.
Jan 15 2026
Colombian President Gustavo Petro clashes with Trump over Venezuela policy
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%8%
Petro’s confrontation with former U.S. President Trump over Venezuela increased political polarization and energized his coalition’s base, benefiting Iván Cepeda Castro’s market position as a candidate aligned with Petro’s left-wing coalition.
Jan 7 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella's ultraconservative stance gains attention
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 31%8%
Abelardo de la Espriella, an ultraconservative lawyer admiring Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, gained attention for his promise to take a hardline approach against criminal groups, briefly boosting his market position before it declined.
Jan 7 2026
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%8%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his late son's political legacy, impacting the election dynamics by introducing a new contender and influencing voter perceptions of the Democratic Colombia party. This event likely contributed to shifts in candidate support early in the year.
Jan 7 2026
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 31%18%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his late son's political legacy, impacting the political landscape and voter dynamics. This event likely influenced market perceptions of candidate viability, particularly affecting Abelardo de la Espriella's support as the field adjusted.
Jan 6 2026
Father of killed Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his son's legacy, adding another candidate to the crowded field.
Dec 30 2025
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay launches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%6%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy, emphasizing his son's legacy and drawing attention to the Historical Pact coalition led by Ivan Cepeda, boosting Cepeda's perceived viability.
Dec 30 2025
Iván Cepeda Castro gains momentum in polls amid left-wing coalition support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 57%8%
Iván Cepeda Castro, a senator from President Gustavo Petro's left-wing Historical Pact coalition, began gaining significant support in polls, reflecting increased market confidence in his candidacy for the presidency. This surge was likely influenced by his coalition's political strength and Petro's administration's policies.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Iván Cepeda leads the race as the Historic Pact nominee backed by outgoing President Gustavo Petro’s political machinery, consistently topping recent polls at 34–44 percent while remaining below the 50 percent threshold needed for an outright first-round victory on May 31. The conservative vote remains fragmented between Abelardo de la Espriella, who polls second at roughly 20–23 percent and promotes a hard-line security platform modeled on regional strongmen, and center-right candidate Paloma Valencia at 22–23 percent after her primary win. This split has reinforced trader consensus that Cepeda will finish first. Recent campaign violence, including the killings of two de la Espriella staffers, has added uncertainty to the final weeks but has not altered the underlying polling structure or the strong likelihood of a June runoff.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Iván Cepeda leads the race as the Historic Pact nominee backed by outgoing President Gustavo Petro’s political machinery, consistently topping recent polls at 34–44 percent while remaining below the 50 percent threshold needed for an outright first-round victory on May 31. The conservative vote remains fragmented between Abelardo de la Espriella, who polls second at roughly 20–23 percent and promotes a hard-line security platform modeled on regional strongmen, and center-right candidate Paloma Valencia at 22–23 percent after her primary win. This split has reinforced trader consensus that Cepeda will finish first. Recent campaign violence, including the killings of two de la Espriella staffers, has added uncertainty to the final weeks but has not altered the underlying polling structure or the strong likelihood of a June runoff.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Apr 24 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella gains momentum in presidential race
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 14%7%
The ultraconservative lawyer saw a notable increase in market support as his campaign's 'iron-fisted' platform against criminal groups resonated with voters.
Apr 20 2026
Claudia López drops out and backs Cepeda
Claudia López drops to 0%6%
Claudia López withdrew from the race and threw her support behind Cepeda, causing her market price to fall to zero and further boosting Cepeda’s lead.
Apr 17 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro reaches new peak in market support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 95%9%
Market confidence in Iván Cepeda Castro's victory reached a new high, reflecting his sustained lead and the weakening of alternative candidates.
Apr 15 2026
Vicky Dávila and Luis Gilberto Murillo formally endorse Cepeda
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 94%3%
Both Vicky Dávila and Luis Gilberto Murillo publicly endorsed Iván Cepeda, consolidating the left‑wing bloc and eliminating their own market shares.
Apr 14 2026
Father of killed Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 94%8%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, adding a new dynamic to the crowded field of over two dozen candidates.
Apr 10 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro solidifies lead as Colombia presidential front-runner
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 92%19%
In April 2026, Iván Cepeda Castro's market price surged to 92%, reflecting his solidified position as the leading candidate for Colombia's presidency, with other candidates' chances diminishing to near zero.
Apr 4 2026
Explosive attack kills 13 on bus in southwestern Colombia amid rising violence
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 87%13%
A deadly bombing in Cauca region heightened security concerns and political instability, likely benefiting candidates emphasizing law and order such as Iván Cepeda Castro, who is associated with the left-wing coalition. This event reinforced voter focus on security issues ahead of the election.
Apr 1 2026
Government announces drone‑based coca eradication program
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 91%10%
President Gustavo Petro’s administration unveiled a new drone program to destroy coca crops, boosting security credentials of left‑wing candidates and reinforcing support for Cepeda’s platform.
Mar 15 2026
Interparty primaries narrow Colombia presidential candidate field
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%8%
As the election approached, interparty primaries in early March led to a narrowing of the candidate field, consolidating support around frontrunners like Iván Cepeda Castro and diminishing prospects for others such as Paloma Valencia and David Luna Sánchez.
Mar 11 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro surges in presidential polling
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 79%9%
Following a period of consolidation, Senator Iván Cepeda Castro saw a significant increase in his polling numbers, solidifying his position as a frontrunner in the presidential race.
Mar 5 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella withdraws from race
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 13%6%
Abelardo de la Espriella announced his withdrawal citing personal reasons, causing his market price to tumble as his supporters dispersed.
Mar 3 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro gains momentum in presidential race
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%7%
Following interparty primaries, Senator Iván Cepeda Castro emerged as a frontrunner, causing his market price to rise significantly.
Mar 1 2026
Colombian plane crash kills 15 including congress member Diógenes Quintero
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 76%9%
The tragic crash heightened awareness of security and political risks in Colombia, potentially consolidating support for candidates promising stability and peace, such as Iván Cepeda Castro, who saw increased market support following the incident.
Mar 1 2026
Political tensions rise as President Gustavo Petro clashes with U.S. over Venezuela
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%11%
President Gustavo Petro's confrontational stance against U.S. policies on Venezuela heightened political tensions, influencing the electoral environment and bolstering support for candidates aligned with his coalition, notably Iván Cepeda Castro.
Feb 28 2026
Poll shows Iván Cepeda leading with 68% support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 70%7%
A national poll released by a leading Colombian survey firm placed Iván Cepeda at 68% support, far ahead of any rival, prompting a sharp rise in his market price as voters coalesced around his candidacy.
Feb 10 2026
Colombia announces drone use to destroy coca crops amid cocaine production surge
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 69%8%
The government’s decision to use drones for coca crop eradication signaled a tougher stance on drug trafficking, influencing voter perceptions of candidates' security policies. This likely boosted support for Iván Cepeda Castro, who is part of the ruling coalition addressing these issues.
Jan 28 2026
Father of slain Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 57%10%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential campaign to defend his late son's political legacy despite falling out with the Democratic Center party. This event highlighted the ongoing political violence and instability in Colombia ahead of the 2026 election, potentially impacting voter sentiment and market perceptions of candidate viability.
Jan 15 2026
Colombian President Gustavo Petro clashes with Trump over Venezuela policy
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%8%
Petro’s confrontation with former U.S. President Trump over Venezuela increased political polarization and energized his coalition’s base, benefiting Iván Cepeda Castro’s market position as a candidate aligned with Petro’s left-wing coalition.
Jan 7 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella's ultraconservative stance gains attention
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 31%8%
Abelardo de la Espriella, an ultraconservative lawyer admiring Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, gained attention for his promise to take a hardline approach against criminal groups, briefly boosting his market position before it declined.
Jan 7 2026
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%8%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his late son's political legacy, impacting the election dynamics by introducing a new contender and influencing voter perceptions of the Democratic Colombia party. This event likely contributed to shifts in candidate support early in the year.
Jan 7 2026
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 31%18%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his late son's political legacy, impacting the political landscape and voter dynamics. This event likely influenced market perceptions of candidate viability, particularly affecting Abelardo de la Espriella's support as the field adjusted.
Jan 6 2026
Father of killed Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his son's legacy, adding another candidate to the crowded field.
Dec 30 2025
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay launches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%6%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy, emphasizing his son's legacy and drawing attention to the Historical Pact coalition led by Ivan Cepeda, boosting Cepeda's perceived viability.
Dec 30 2025
Iván Cepeda Castro gains momentum in polls amid left-wing coalition support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 57%8%
Iván Cepeda Castro, a senator from President Gustavo Petro's left-wing Historical Pact coalition, began gaining significant support in polls, reflecting increased market confidence in his candidacy for the presidency. This surge was likely influenced by his coalition's political strength and Petro's administration's policies.
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Mga Madalas na Tanong
Ang " Nagwagi ba ang Colombia Presidential Election sa unang round?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 18 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Iván Cepeda Castro" sa 85%, sinusundan ng "Abelardo de la Espriella" sa 16%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 85¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 85% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.
Sa ngayon, ang " Nagwagi ba ang Colombia Presidential Election sa unang round?" ay naka-generate ng $6 million sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Dec 23, 2025. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.
Para mag-trade sa " Nagwagi ba ang Colombia Presidential Election sa unang round?," i-browse ang 18 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.
Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa " Nagwagi ba ang Colombia Presidential Election sa unang round?" ay "Iván Cepeda Castro" sa 85%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 85% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Abelardo de la Espriella" sa 16%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.
Ang mga resolution rules para sa " Nagwagi ba ang Colombia Presidential Election sa unang round?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.
Oo. Hindi mo kailangang mag-trade para manatiling informed. Ang pahinang ito ay nagsisilbing live tracker para sa " Nagwagi ba ang Colombia Presidential Election sa unang round?." Nag-a-update ang outcome probabilities sa real-time habang pumasok ang mga bagong trade. Maaari mong i-bookmark ang pahinang ito at tingnan ang comments section para makita kung ano ang sinasabi ng ibang mga trader. Maaari mo ring gamitin ang time-range filters sa chart para makita kung paano nagbago ang odds sa paglipas ng panahon. Isang libre, real-time na bintana ito sa kung ano ang inaasahan ng market na mangyayari.
Ang Polymarket odds ay itinatakda ng mga tunay na trader na naglalagay ng tunay na pera sa kanilang mga paniniwala, na may tendensiyang maglabas ng mga tumpak na prediksiyon. Sa $6 million na na-trade sa " Nagwagi ba ang Colombia Presidential Election sa unang round?," pinagsasama-sama ng mga presyong ito ang kolektibong kaalaman at conviction ng libu-libong kalahok — na kadalasang mas mahusay kaysa sa mga poll, expert forecast, at tradisyonal na survey. Ang mga prediction market tulad ng Polymarket ay may malakas na track record ng accuracy, lalo na habang papalapit ang mga event sa kanilang resolution date. Halimbawa, ang Polymarket ay may one month accuracy score na 94%. Para sa pinakabagong stats sa prediction accuracy ng Polymarket, bisitahin ang accuracy page sa Polymarket.
Para ilagay ang iyong unang trade sa " Nagwagi ba ang Colombia Presidential Election sa unang round?," mag-sign up para sa libreng Polymarket account at i-fund ito gamit ang crypto, credit o debit card, o bank transfer. Kapag na-fund na ang iyong account, bumalik sa pahinang ito, piliin ang outcome na gusto mong i-trade, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung bago ka sa prediction markets, i-click ang "How it works" link sa itaas ng anumang Polymarket page para sa mabilis na step-by-step walkthrough kung paano gumagana ang trading.
Sa Polymarket, ang presyo ng bawat outcome ay kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Ang presyong 85¢ para sa "Iván Cepeda Castro" sa " Nagwagi ba ang Colombia Presidential Election sa unang round?" market ay nangangahulugang kolektibong naniniwala ang mga trader na may halos 85% na tsansa na ang "Iván Cepeda Castro" ang magiging tamang resulta. Kung bibili ka ng "Yes" shares sa 85¢ at tama ang outcome, makakatanggap ka ng $1.00 per share — isang kita na 15¢ per share. Kung mali, ang mga share na iyon ay nagkakahalaga ng $0.
Ang " Nagwagi ba ang Colombia Presidential Election sa unang round?" market ay naka-schedule na mag-resolve sa o bandang May 31, 2026. Ibig sabihin ang trading ay mananatiling bukas at patuloy na magbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon hanggang sa petsang iyon. Ang eksaktong timing ng resolution ay nakadepende sa kung kailan magiging available ang opisyal na resulta, gaya ng nakabalangkas sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito.
Ang " Nagwagi ba ang Colombia Presidential Election sa unang round?" market ay may isang aktibong komunidad ng 39 mga komento kung saan nagbabahagi ang mga trader ng kanilang analysis, nag-debate ng mga outcome, at pinag-uusapan ang mga breaking development. Mag-scroll pababa sa comments section sa ibaba para basahin kung ano ang iniisip ng ibang kalahok. Maaari mo ring i-filter ayon sa "Top Holders" para makita kung saan nakaposisyon ang mga pinakamalaking trader ng market, o tingnan ang "Activity" tab para sa real-time feed ng mga trade.
Ang Polymarket ang pinakamalaking prediction market sa mundo, kung saan maaari kang manatiling informed at kumita mula sa iyong kaalaman sa mga real-world events. Bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares sa mga outcome para sa mga paksang mula pulitika at eleksyon hanggang crypto, finance, sports, tech, at kultura, kasama ang mga market tulad ng " Nagwagi ba ang Colombia Presidential Election sa unang round?." Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities na sinusuportahan ng financial conviction, na kadalasang nagbibigay ng mas mabilis at mas tumpak na signal kaysa sa mga poll, pundit, o tradisyonal na survey.
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