This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a slim 55.5% edge over Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein at 46.3% in trader consensus for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, underscoring a fiercely contested race testing Trump's influence against Massie's independent record. A fresh Quantus Insights poll from May 11-12 shows Gallrein leading 48.3%-43.1% among 908 likely voters (MOE ±3.3%), with undecideds leaning Gallrein 52%-23%, reversing Massie's April lead amid heavy ad spending exceeding $25 million—the costliest House primary ever. Massie dominates younger voters, while Gallrein leads seniors; early voting turnout and final rallies could separate the contenders in this battleground for GOP loyalty.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a slim 55.5% edge over Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein at 46.3% in trader consensus for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, underscoring a fiercely contested race testing Trump's influence against Massie's independent record. A fresh Quantus Insights poll from May 11-12 shows Gallrein leading 48.3%-43.1% among 908 likely voters (MOE ±3.3%), with undecideds leaning Gallrein 52%-23%, reversing Massie's April lead amid heavy ad spending exceeding $25 million—the costliest House primary ever. Massie dominates younger voters, while Gallrein leads seniors; early voting turnout and final rallies could separate the contenders in this battleground for GOP loyalty.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Jun 30 2026
Kaplan Strategies poll shows Ethington trailing Massie 19 %–31 % despite earlier leads, confirming her declining support among GOP primary voters
Kaplan Strategies poll shows Ethington trailing Massie 19 %–31 % despite earlier leads, confirming her declining support among GOP primary voters
May 13 2026
Polymarket update notes Massie’s recent fundraising and debate exposure but also the surge in Gallrein’s spending, leaving Massie at a 56 % implied probability
Polymarket update notes Massie’s recent fundraising and debate exposure but also the surge in Gallrein’s spending, leaving Massie at a 56 % implied probability
May 13 2026
Gallrein’s campaign announces a fresh fundraising push surpassing $3 million, reviving optimism and spiking his odds back up
Ed Gallrein surges to 45%22%
Gallrein’s campaign announces a fresh fundraising push surpassing $3 million, reviving optimism and spiking his odds back up
May 13 2026
Local 12 fundraising report shows Gallrein’s cash‑on‑hand climbing to $1.4 million and total receipts topping $2.4 million, confirming strong financial footing ahead of the
Local 12 fundraising report shows Gallrein’s cash‑on‑hand climbing to $1.4 million and total receipts topping $2.4 million, confirming strong financial footing ahead of the primary and supporting the latest
May 12 2026
Reports confirm ad spending in the Massie‑Gallrein race has eclipsed $25 million, underscoring the intensity of the contest and further pressuring Massie’s odds
Thomas Massie drops to 56%6%
Reports confirm ad spending in the Massie‑Gallrein race has eclipsed $25 million, underscoring the intensity of the contest and further pressuring Massie’s odds
May 11 2026
The Kentucky GOP primary becomes the most expensive U.S.
Thomas Massie plunges to 62%16%
House primary ever, with over $25.6 million in ad spending, most of it by Gallrein’s campaign
May 7 2026
Courier‑Journal analysis links Trump’s Indiana primary upsets to Gallrein’s momentum, quoting campaign adviser Tim Murdaugh that Trump’s endorsement remains “extraordinary value,”
Ed Gallrein surges to 44%21%
Courier‑Journal analysis links Trump’s Indiana primary upsets to Gallrein’s momentum, quoting campaign adviser Tim Murdaugh that Trump’s endorsement remains “extraordinary value,” which coincides with a sharp
May 5 2026
WKYU‑FM reports AI‑deep‑fake attack ads from opposing super‑PACs targeting both candidates, with a Gallrein‑focused ad portraying him as a “coward,” sparking controversy and a
Ed Gallrein drops to 23%9%
WKYU‑FM reports AI‑deep‑fake attack ads from opposing super‑PACs targeting both candidates, with a Gallrein‑focused ad portraying him as a “coward,” sparking controversy and a brief
May 5 2026
WKYU FM reports AI “deep‑fake” attack ads targeting both candidates;
Ed Gallrein drops to 23%7%
the Gallrein‑focused ad draws criticism and likely depresses his odds further
Apr 30 2026
Quantus Insights poll shows Gallrein trailing Massie 37.7 %–46.8 %, reinforcing a downward trend in his market
Ed Gallrein dips to 30%2%
Quantus Insights poll shows Gallrein trailing Massie 37.7 %–46.8 %, reinforcing a downward trend in his market
Apr 30 2026
Quantus Insights poll shows Massie leading 46.8% to Gallrein’s 37.7%, a setback that pushes Gallrein’s
Ed Gallrein dips to 32%4%
Quantus Insights poll shows Massie leading 46.8% to Gallrein’s 37.7%, a setback that pushes Gallrein’s
Apr 16 2026
Massie skips the candidate‑question deadline for the primary voter guide, drawing criticism and raising doubts about his campaign organization
Thomas Massie dips to 66%3%
Massie skips the candidate‑question deadline for the primary voter guide, drawing criticism and raising doubts about his campaign organization
Apr 14 2026
Voter‑guide coverage highlights that Trump‑endorsed Ed Gallrein is the “high‑profile” challenger aiming to replace Massie, signaling a tougher race and nudging the
Thomas Massie dips to 61%4%
Voter‑guide coverage highlights that Trump‑endorsed Ed Gallrein is the “high‑profile” challenger aiming to replace Massie, signaling a tougher race and nudging the
Apr 2 2026
Polymarket market analysis notes a 7.5‑point surge for Thomas Massie, pushing the combined probability of all other challengers—including Robert Wells Jr.—down to 28 cents,
Robert Wells Jr. dips to 0%1%
Polymarket market analysis notes a 7.5‑point surge for Thomas Massie, pushing the combined probability of all other challengers—including Robert Wells Jr.—down to 28 cents, reflecting a sharp sell‑off on Wells’s odds
Mar 31 2026
Cincinnati .com notes Trump’s March rally in Hebron where Gallrein shared the stage, renewing media attention and driving a
Ed Gallrein jumps to 36%6%
Cincinnati .com notes Trump’s March rally in Hebron where Gallrein shared the stage, renewing media attention and driving a
Mar 31 2026
Cincinnati .com runs a story highlighting Massie’s attack on Gallrein’s party‑registration history, causing a modest decline in Gallrein’s odds
Ed Gallrein dips to 32%4%
Cincinnati .com runs a story highlighting Massie’s attack on Gallrein’s party‑registration history, causing a modest decline in Gallrein’s odds
Mar 20 2026
Massie appears in a televised debate in Louisville, receiving favorable post‑debate ratings that lift his odds
Thomas Massie rises to 66%2%
Massie appears in a televised debate in Louisville, receiving favorable post‑debate ratings that lift his odds
Mar 10 2026
Washington Examiner notes Gallrein’s confidence surge after Trump‑backed Indiana primary victories, pushing his odds back up
Ed Gallrein jumps to 36%6%
Washington Examiner notes Gallrein’s confidence surge after Trump‑backed Indiana primary victories, pushing his odds back up
Feb 24 2026
Report reveals that out‑of‑state billionaires and pro‑Israel groups have poured $10 million into ads against Gallrein, prompting a sharp dip in his odds
Ed Gallrein jumps to 30%6%
Report reveals that out‑of‑state billionaires and pro‑Israel groups have poured $10 million into ads against Gallrein, prompting a sharp dip in his odds
Feb 24 2026
Report on “who’s behind the millions” reveals out‑of‑state billionaire donors and pro‑Israel PACs pouring over $1 million into anti‑Massie ads, signalling a spending surge for
Ed Gallrein jumps to 30%6%
Report on “who’s behind the millions” reveals out‑of‑state billionaire donors and pro‑Israel PACs pouring over $1 million into anti‑Massie ads, signalling a spending surge for Gallrein’s side and lifting his odds
Feb 10 2026
A poll released by a local news outlet shows Massie leading Gallrein 52‑44 among likely Republican primary voters, pushing the market higher
Thomas Massie rises to 75%4%
A poll released by a local news outlet shows Massie leading Gallrein 52‑44 among likely Republican primary voters, pushing the market higher
Jan 6 2026
Massie’s fundraising surge following Trump’s attacks highlights the growing momentum of his opponents, further diminishing Ethington’s perceived viability
Nicole Lee Ethington dips to 0%1%
Massie’s fundraising surge following Trump’s attacks highlights the growing momentum of his opponents, further diminishing Ethington’s perceived viability
Jan 6 2026
President Trump publicly endorses Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, a primary rival, and attacks Rep.
Nicole Lee Ethington dips to 1%2%
Thomas Massie, drawing attention away from Ethington and boosting Gallrein’s fundraising
Jan 4 2026
Massie reports $2.5 million raised in Q1 and begins TV debate ads, boosting his perceived competitiveness
Thomas Massie jumps to 72%5%
Massie reports $2.5 million raised in Q1 and begins TV debate ads, boosting his perceived competitiveness
Dec 15 2025
Massie files his 2026 re‑election paperwork, officially entering the race and prompting early optimism among supporters
Thomas Massie jumps to 58%12%
Massie files his 2026 re‑election paperwork, officially entering the race and prompting early optimism among supporters
Dec 1 2025
Nicole Lee Ethington files withdrawal paperwork, ending her campaign for the KY‑04 Republican nomination
Nicole Lee Ethington plunges to 3%43%
Nicole Lee Ethington files withdrawal paperwork, ending her campaign for the KY‑04 Republican nomination
Nov 20 2025
Madspace reports Trump’s endorsement emphasizing Gallrein’s “always‑under‑siege” Second‑Amendment stance, reinforcing the Trump‑backed narrative and prompting a modest
Ed Gallrein drops to 28%5%
Madspace reports Trump’s endorsement emphasizing Gallrein’s “always‑under‑siege” Second‑Amendment stance, reinforcing the Trump‑backed narrative and prompting a modest
Nov 20 2025
Madspace publishes analysis of Gallrein’s “second‑amendment” pledge and notes Trump’s backing, reinforcing his Trump‑aligned brand and nudging odds upward
Ed Gallrein drops to 28%5%
Madspace publishes analysis of Gallrein’s “second‑amendment” pledge and notes Trump’s backing, reinforcing his Trump‑aligned brand and nudging odds upward
Oct 21 2025
Ed Gallrein announces his congressional run and receives a full‑blown endorsement from President Donald Trump on Truth Social, instantly lifting his primary profile
Ed Gallrein drops to 33%14%
Ed Gallrein announces his congressional run and receives a full‑blown endorsement from President Donald Trump on Truth Social, instantly lifting his primary profile
Oct 21 2025
Gallrein announces his congressional run and unveils Trump’s endorsement on Truth Social, instantly raising his profile and market odds
Ed Gallrein drops to 33%14%
Gallrein announces his congressional run and unveils Trump’s endorsement on Truth Social, instantly raising his profile and market odds
Jun 15 2025
Former President Donald Trump publicly endorses incumbent Rep.
Robert Wells Jr. drops to 1%13%
Thomas Massie and calls for a primary challenge against him, signaling strong establishment support for Massie over lesser‑known challengers like Wells
Jan 9 2025
Kentucky Secretary of State confirms Robert Wells Jr.
Robert Wells Jr. plunges to 3%43%
files paperwork to run for the KY‑04 Republican nomination
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a slim 55.5% edge over Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein at 46.3% in trader consensus for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, underscoring a fiercely contested race testing Trump's influence against Massie's independent record. A fresh Quantus Insights poll from May 11-12 shows Gallrein leading 48.3%-43.1% among 908 likely voters (MOE ±3.3%), with undecideds leaning Gallrein 52%-23%, reversing Massie's April lead amid heavy ad spending exceeding $25 million—the costliest House primary ever. Massie dominates younger voters, while Gallrein leads seniors; early voting turnout and final rallies could separate the contenders in this battleground for GOP loyalty.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a slim 55.5% edge over Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein at 46.3% in trader consensus for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, underscoring a fiercely contested race testing Trump's influence against Massie's independent record. A fresh Quantus Insights poll from May 11-12 shows Gallrein leading 48.3%-43.1% among 908 likely voters (MOE ±3.3%), with undecideds leaning Gallrein 52%-23%, reversing Massie's April lead amid heavy ad spending exceeding $25 million—the costliest House primary ever. Massie dominates younger voters, while Gallrein leads seniors; early voting turnout and final rallies could separate the contenders in this battleground for GOP loyalty.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Jun 30 2026
Kaplan Strategies poll shows Ethington trailing Massie 19 %–31 % despite earlier leads, confirming her declining support among GOP primary voters
Kaplan Strategies poll shows Ethington trailing Massie 19 %–31 % despite earlier leads, confirming her declining support among GOP primary voters
May 13 2026
Polymarket update notes Massie’s recent fundraising and debate exposure but also the surge in Gallrein’s spending, leaving Massie at a 56 % implied probability
Polymarket update notes Massie’s recent fundraising and debate exposure but also the surge in Gallrein’s spending, leaving Massie at a 56 % implied probability
May 13 2026
Gallrein’s campaign announces a fresh fundraising push surpassing $3 million, reviving optimism and spiking his odds back up
Ed Gallrein surges to 45%22%
Gallrein’s campaign announces a fresh fundraising push surpassing $3 million, reviving optimism and spiking his odds back up
May 13 2026
Local 12 fundraising report shows Gallrein’s cash‑on‑hand climbing to $1.4 million and total receipts topping $2.4 million, confirming strong financial footing ahead of the
Local 12 fundraising report shows Gallrein’s cash‑on‑hand climbing to $1.4 million and total receipts topping $2.4 million, confirming strong financial footing ahead of the primary and supporting the latest
May 12 2026
Reports confirm ad spending in the Massie‑Gallrein race has eclipsed $25 million, underscoring the intensity of the contest and further pressuring Massie’s odds
Thomas Massie drops to 56%6%
Reports confirm ad spending in the Massie‑Gallrein race has eclipsed $25 million, underscoring the intensity of the contest and further pressuring Massie’s odds
May 11 2026
The Kentucky GOP primary becomes the most expensive U.S.
Thomas Massie plunges to 62%16%
House primary ever, with over $25.6 million in ad spending, most of it by Gallrein’s campaign
May 7 2026
Courier‑Journal analysis links Trump’s Indiana primary upsets to Gallrein’s momentum, quoting campaign adviser Tim Murdaugh that Trump’s endorsement remains “extraordinary value,”
Ed Gallrein surges to 44%21%
Courier‑Journal analysis links Trump’s Indiana primary upsets to Gallrein’s momentum, quoting campaign adviser Tim Murdaugh that Trump’s endorsement remains “extraordinary value,” which coincides with a sharp
May 5 2026
WKYU‑FM reports AI‑deep‑fake attack ads from opposing super‑PACs targeting both candidates, with a Gallrein‑focused ad portraying him as a “coward,” sparking controversy and a
Ed Gallrein drops to 23%9%
WKYU‑FM reports AI‑deep‑fake attack ads from opposing super‑PACs targeting both candidates, with a Gallrein‑focused ad portraying him as a “coward,” sparking controversy and a brief
May 5 2026
WKYU FM reports AI “deep‑fake” attack ads targeting both candidates;
Ed Gallrein drops to 23%7%
the Gallrein‑focused ad draws criticism and likely depresses his odds further
Apr 30 2026
Quantus Insights poll shows Gallrein trailing Massie 37.7 %–46.8 %, reinforcing a downward trend in his market
Ed Gallrein dips to 30%2%
Quantus Insights poll shows Gallrein trailing Massie 37.7 %–46.8 %, reinforcing a downward trend in his market
Apr 30 2026
Quantus Insights poll shows Massie leading 46.8% to Gallrein’s 37.7%, a setback that pushes Gallrein’s
Ed Gallrein dips to 32%4%
Quantus Insights poll shows Massie leading 46.8% to Gallrein’s 37.7%, a setback that pushes Gallrein’s
Apr 16 2026
Massie skips the candidate‑question deadline for the primary voter guide, drawing criticism and raising doubts about his campaign organization
Thomas Massie dips to 66%3%
Massie skips the candidate‑question deadline for the primary voter guide, drawing criticism and raising doubts about his campaign organization
Apr 14 2026
Voter‑guide coverage highlights that Trump‑endorsed Ed Gallrein is the “high‑profile” challenger aiming to replace Massie, signaling a tougher race and nudging the
Thomas Massie dips to 61%4%
Voter‑guide coverage highlights that Trump‑endorsed Ed Gallrein is the “high‑profile” challenger aiming to replace Massie, signaling a tougher race and nudging the
Apr 2 2026
Polymarket market analysis notes a 7.5‑point surge for Thomas Massie, pushing the combined probability of all other challengers—including Robert Wells Jr.—down to 28 cents,
Robert Wells Jr. dips to 0%1%
Polymarket market analysis notes a 7.5‑point surge for Thomas Massie, pushing the combined probability of all other challengers—including Robert Wells Jr.—down to 28 cents, reflecting a sharp sell‑off on Wells’s odds
Mar 31 2026
Cincinnati .com notes Trump’s March rally in Hebron where Gallrein shared the stage, renewing media attention and driving a
Ed Gallrein jumps to 36%6%
Cincinnati .com notes Trump’s March rally in Hebron where Gallrein shared the stage, renewing media attention and driving a
Mar 31 2026
Cincinnati .com runs a story highlighting Massie’s attack on Gallrein’s party‑registration history, causing a modest decline in Gallrein’s odds
Ed Gallrein dips to 32%4%
Cincinnati .com runs a story highlighting Massie’s attack on Gallrein’s party‑registration history, causing a modest decline in Gallrein’s odds
Mar 20 2026
Massie appears in a televised debate in Louisville, receiving favorable post‑debate ratings that lift his odds
Thomas Massie rises to 66%2%
Massie appears in a televised debate in Louisville, receiving favorable post‑debate ratings that lift his odds
Mar 10 2026
Washington Examiner notes Gallrein’s confidence surge after Trump‑backed Indiana primary victories, pushing his odds back up
Ed Gallrein jumps to 36%6%
Washington Examiner notes Gallrein’s confidence surge after Trump‑backed Indiana primary victories, pushing his odds back up
Feb 24 2026
Report reveals that out‑of‑state billionaires and pro‑Israel groups have poured $10 million into ads against Gallrein, prompting a sharp dip in his odds
Ed Gallrein jumps to 30%6%
Report reveals that out‑of‑state billionaires and pro‑Israel groups have poured $10 million into ads against Gallrein, prompting a sharp dip in his odds
Feb 24 2026
Report on “who’s behind the millions” reveals out‑of‑state billionaire donors and pro‑Israel PACs pouring over $1 million into anti‑Massie ads, signalling a spending surge for
Ed Gallrein jumps to 30%6%
Report on “who’s behind the millions” reveals out‑of‑state billionaire donors and pro‑Israel PACs pouring over $1 million into anti‑Massie ads, signalling a spending surge for Gallrein’s side and lifting his odds
Feb 10 2026
A poll released by a local news outlet shows Massie leading Gallrein 52‑44 among likely Republican primary voters, pushing the market higher
Thomas Massie rises to 75%4%
A poll released by a local news outlet shows Massie leading Gallrein 52‑44 among likely Republican primary voters, pushing the market higher
Jan 6 2026
Massie’s fundraising surge following Trump’s attacks highlights the growing momentum of his opponents, further diminishing Ethington’s perceived viability
Nicole Lee Ethington dips to 0%1%
Massie’s fundraising surge following Trump’s attacks highlights the growing momentum of his opponents, further diminishing Ethington’s perceived viability
Jan 6 2026
President Trump publicly endorses Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, a primary rival, and attacks Rep.
Nicole Lee Ethington dips to 1%2%
Thomas Massie, drawing attention away from Ethington and boosting Gallrein’s fundraising
Jan 4 2026
Massie reports $2.5 million raised in Q1 and begins TV debate ads, boosting his perceived competitiveness
Thomas Massie jumps to 72%5%
Massie reports $2.5 million raised in Q1 and begins TV debate ads, boosting his perceived competitiveness
Dec 15 2025
Massie files his 2026 re‑election paperwork, officially entering the race and prompting early optimism among supporters
Thomas Massie jumps to 58%12%
Massie files his 2026 re‑election paperwork, officially entering the race and prompting early optimism among supporters
Dec 1 2025
Nicole Lee Ethington files withdrawal paperwork, ending her campaign for the KY‑04 Republican nomination
Nicole Lee Ethington plunges to 3%43%
Nicole Lee Ethington files withdrawal paperwork, ending her campaign for the KY‑04 Republican nomination
Nov 20 2025
Madspace reports Trump’s endorsement emphasizing Gallrein’s “always‑under‑siege” Second‑Amendment stance, reinforcing the Trump‑backed narrative and prompting a modest
Ed Gallrein drops to 28%5%
Madspace reports Trump’s endorsement emphasizing Gallrein’s “always‑under‑siege” Second‑Amendment stance, reinforcing the Trump‑backed narrative and prompting a modest
Nov 20 2025
Madspace publishes analysis of Gallrein’s “second‑amendment” pledge and notes Trump’s backing, reinforcing his Trump‑aligned brand and nudging odds upward
Ed Gallrein drops to 28%5%
Madspace publishes analysis of Gallrein’s “second‑amendment” pledge and notes Trump’s backing, reinforcing his Trump‑aligned brand and nudging odds upward
Oct 21 2025
Ed Gallrein announces his congressional run and receives a full‑blown endorsement from President Donald Trump on Truth Social, instantly lifting his primary profile
Ed Gallrein drops to 33%14%
Ed Gallrein announces his congressional run and receives a full‑blown endorsement from President Donald Trump on Truth Social, instantly lifting his primary profile
Oct 21 2025
Gallrein announces his congressional run and unveils Trump’s endorsement on Truth Social, instantly raising his profile and market odds
Ed Gallrein drops to 33%14%
Gallrein announces his congressional run and unveils Trump’s endorsement on Truth Social, instantly raising his profile and market odds
Jun 15 2025
Former President Donald Trump publicly endorses incumbent Rep.
Robert Wells Jr. drops to 1%13%
Thomas Massie and calls for a primary challenge against him, signaling strong establishment support for Massie over lesser‑known challengers like Wells
Jan 9 2025
Kentucky Secretary of State confirms Robert Wells Jr.
Robert Wells Jr. plunges to 3%43%
files paperwork to run for the KY‑04 Republican nomination
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong
Ang "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 4 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Thomas Massie" sa 57%, sinusundan ng "Ed Gallrein" sa 44%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 57¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 57% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.
Sa ngayon, ang "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner" ay naka-generate ng $950.6K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Dec 1, 2025. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.
Para mag-trade sa "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner," i-browse ang 4 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.
Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner" ay "Thomas Massie" sa 57%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 57% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Ed Gallrein" sa 44%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.
Ang mga resolution rules para sa "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.
Oo. Hindi mo kailangang mag-trade para manatiling informed. Ang pahinang ito ay nagsisilbing live tracker para sa "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner." Nag-a-update ang outcome probabilities sa real-time habang pumasok ang mga bagong trade. Maaari mong i-bookmark ang pahinang ito at tingnan ang comments section para makita kung ano ang sinasabi ng ibang mga trader. Maaari mo ring gamitin ang time-range filters sa chart para makita kung paano nagbago ang odds sa paglipas ng panahon. Isang libre, real-time na bintana ito sa kung ano ang inaasahan ng market na mangyayari.
Ang Polymarket odds ay itinatakda ng mga tunay na trader na naglalagay ng tunay na pera sa kanilang mga paniniwala, na may tendensiyang maglabas ng mga tumpak na prediksiyon. Sa $950.6K na na-trade sa "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner," pinagsasama-sama ng mga presyong ito ang kolektibong kaalaman at conviction ng libu-libong kalahok — na kadalasang mas mahusay kaysa sa mga poll, expert forecast, at tradisyonal na survey. Ang mga prediction market tulad ng Polymarket ay may malakas na track record ng accuracy, lalo na habang papalapit ang mga event sa kanilang resolution date. Halimbawa, ang Polymarket ay may one month accuracy score na 94%. Para sa pinakabagong stats sa prediction accuracy ng Polymarket, bisitahin ang accuracy page sa Polymarket.
Para ilagay ang iyong unang trade sa "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner," mag-sign up para sa libreng Polymarket account at i-fund ito gamit ang crypto, credit o debit card, o bank transfer. Kapag na-fund na ang iyong account, bumalik sa pahinang ito, piliin ang outcome na gusto mong i-trade, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung bago ka sa prediction markets, i-click ang "How it works" link sa itaas ng anumang Polymarket page para sa mabilis na step-by-step walkthrough kung paano gumagana ang trading.
Sa Polymarket, ang presyo ng bawat outcome ay kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Ang presyong 57¢ para sa "Thomas Massie" sa "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner" market ay nangangahulugang kolektibong naniniwala ang mga trader na may halos 57% na tsansa na ang "Thomas Massie" ang magiging tamang resulta. Kung bibili ka ng "Yes" shares sa 57¢ at tama ang outcome, makakatanggap ka ng $1.00 per share — isang kita na 43¢ per share. Kung mali, ang mga share na iyon ay nagkakahalaga ng $0.
Ang "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner" market ay naka-schedule na mag-resolve sa o bandang May 19, 2026. Ibig sabihin ang trading ay mananatiling bukas at patuloy na magbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon hanggang sa petsang iyon. Ang eksaktong timing ng resolution ay nakadepende sa kung kailan magiging available ang opisyal na resulta, gaya ng nakabalangkas sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito.
Ang "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner" market ay may isang aktibong komunidad ng 64 mga komento kung saan nagbabahagi ang mga trader ng kanilang analysis, nag-debate ng mga outcome, at pinag-uusapan ang mga breaking development. Mag-scroll pababa sa comments section sa ibaba para basahin kung ano ang iniisip ng ibang kalahok. Maaari mo ring i-filter ayon sa "Top Holders" para makita kung saan nakaposisyon ang mga pinakamalaking trader ng market, o tingnan ang "Activity" tab para sa real-time feed ng mga trade.
Ang Polymarket ang pinakamalaking prediction market sa mundo, kung saan maaari kang manatiling informed at kumita mula sa iyong kaalaman sa mga real-world events. Bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares sa mga outcome para sa mga paksang mula pulitika at eleksyon hanggang crypto, finance, sports, tech, at kultura, kasama ang mga market tulad ng "KY-04 Republican Primary Winner." Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities na sinusuportahan ng financial conviction, na kadalasang nagbibigay ng mas mabilis at mas tumpak na signal kaysa sa mga poll, pundit, o tradisyonal na survey.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong