Starship’s early 2026 pace remains limited after repeated delays pushed the first flight test of the year—Flight 12, the debut of the redesigned V3 vehicle with upgraded Raptor 3 engines and a new launch pad—to mid-May. Traders therefore assign nearly half the probability to fewer than five orbital-class attempts succeeding, reflecting the cautious testing cadence seen in prior years and the added complexity of validating a clean-sheet propulsion and structural architecture. Historical patterns show that major vehicle iterations often require several flights before reliable performance emerges, while regulatory approvals and ground infrastructure upgrades further constrain rapid repetition. Upcoming milestones, including the outcome of Flight 12 and any subsequent attempts before year-end, will determine whether the market’s modest 5–6 range gains traction or remains anchored in the low single digits.