Current forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF, aligned with Russian Hydrometeorological Center guidance, indicate Moscow’s overnight low on September 4 will likely fall between 12–14 °C under predominantly overcast skies and light southwesterly flow. This range reflects mild maritime air advection rather than the colder continental outbreaks that historically produce sub-10 °C minima on this date. Radiative cooling will be limited by cloud cover and modest wind speeds, while daytime mixing keeps the diurnal range modest. Historical climatology shows an average low near 10 °C with occasional drops to 3–6 °C under clear, northerly flow, yet recent model runs exhibit little spread around the warmer solution. Trader consensus at roughly equal implied probabilities for the extreme thresholds versus the 7–15 °C band therefore mirrors residual uncertainty in cloud timing and any late-model shift in steering patterns before the 48-hour forecast window closes.