Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 8–10°C for Paris's lowest temperature on May 18, driven by Météo-France's latest guidance and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS showing overnight minimums in the 8–11°C range amid a persistent cool, humid pattern over Île-de-France. Recent unstable weather through May 11–17, with northerly flows and frequent showers, has suppressed temperatures below May climatological norms of ~10°C lows, favoring radiative cooling under partly clearing skies but limited by residual cloud cover and urban heat island effects at the Paris-Montsouris station. Key differentiators include model spread on nocturnal low-level stability and dewpoint depressions; fuller cloudiness could hold mins at 10°C+, while clearer conditions tip toward 8°C. Watch 12Z model updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateLowest temperature in Paris on May 18?
Lowest temperature in Paris on May 18?
8°C 21%
10°C 20%
9°C 16%
7°C 11%
BAGO
BAGO
May 18, 2026
2°C or below
1%
3°C
1%
4°C
3%
5°C
3%
6°C
3%
7°C
11%
8°C
21%
9°C
23%
10°C
20%
11°C
10%
12°C or higher
5%
8°C 21%
10°C 20%
9°C 16%
7°C 11%
BAGO
BAGO
May 18, 2026
2°C or below
$62 Vol.
1%
3°C
$57 Vol.
1%
4°C
$10 Vol.
3%
5°C
$10 Vol.
3%
6°C
$10 Vol.
3%
7°C
$22 Vol.
11%
8°C
$10 Vol.
21%
9°C
$29 Vol.
23%
10°C
$10 Vol.
20%
11°C
$10 Vol.
10%
12°C or higher
$118 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 8–10°C for Paris's lowest temperature on May 18, driven by Météo-France's latest guidance and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS showing overnight minimums in the 8–11°C range amid a persistent cool, humid pattern over Île-de-France. Recent unstable weather through May 11–17, with northerly flows and frequent showers, has suppressed temperatures below May climatological norms of ~10°C lows, favoring radiative cooling under partly clearing skies but limited by residual cloud cover and urban heat island effects at the Paris-Montsouris station. Key differentiators include model spread on nocturnal low-level stability and dewpoint depressions; fuller cloudiness could hold mins at 10°C+, while clearer conditions tip toward 8°C. Watch 12Z model updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Binuksan ang Market: May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$348Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 18, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 8–10°C for Paris's lowest temperature on May 18, driven by Météo-France's latest guidance and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS showing overnight minimums in the 8–11°C range amid a persistent cool, humid pattern over Île-de-France. Recent unstable weather through May 11–17, with northerly flows and frequent showers, has suppressed temperatures below May climatological norms of ~10°C lows, favoring radiative cooling under partly clearing skies but limited by residual cloud cover and urban heat island effects at the Paris-Montsouris station. Key differentiators include model spread on nocturnal low-level stability and dewpoint depressions; fuller cloudiness could hold mins at 10°C+, while clearer conditions tip toward 8°C. Watch 12Z model updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$348Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 18, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 8–10°C for Paris's lowest temperature on May 18, driven by Météo-France's latest guidance and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS showing overnight minimums in the 8–11°C range amid a persistent cool, humid pattern over Île-de-France. Recent unstable weather through May 11–17, with northerly flows and frequent showers, has suppressed temperatures below May climatological norms of ~10°C lows, favoring radiative cooling under partly clearing skies but limited by residual cloud cover and urban heat island effects at the Paris-Montsouris station. Key differentiators include model spread on nocturnal low-level stability and dewpoint depressions; fuller cloudiness could hold mins at 10°C+, while clearer conditions tip toward 8°C. Watch 12Z model updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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