Russia's Supreme Court disqualified Yabloko's federal party list from the September 2026 State Duma ballot on August 10 following a challenge by the Rodina party, removing the liberal opposition group from nationwide proportional representation where parties must exceed the 5% threshold for seats. Yabloko has not cleared this bar since 1999 and posted roughly 1% in the prior cycle amid constrained opposition activity. Traders assign near-certain odds to "No" because exclusion from the party-list ballot makes clearing the threshold impossible under standard electoral rules. Remaining single-mandate candidacies do not affect the proportional outcome. An unexpected reversal of the court ruling before election day remains the primary scenario that could reopen the market.