Recent polling averages and provincial simulations ahead of the November 29 snap election project the BNG at a median of two seats in the Congress, with an 80% band typically spanning two to four, driven by its established base in A Coruña and Pontevedra alongside limited penetration in Lugo and Ourense. The party’s campaign emphasizes greater Galician autonomy, housing access, and public services under Ana Pontón, capitalizing on regional nationalist sentiment that has lifted its support above the single seat won in 2023. Tight D’Hondt margins in the larger Galician provinces mean small shifts in turnout or left-leaning vote consolidation could add or subtract a seat, keeping probabilities for two, three, and four-plus seats closely bunched. National trends favoring the PP-Vox bloc and fragmentation among other left options further constrain upside while sustaining the competitive range reflected in current trader pricing.