Recent polls ahead of Spain’s November 29 snap general election project Vox at roughly 18–19% of the vote, translating to seat estimates clustered between the mid-50s and low-70s depending on the pollster and turnout assumptions. The party’s gains appear driven by voter shifts from the PP amid ongoing debates over immigration policy, regional fiscal arrangements, and government handling of recent transport incidents. Seat outcomes remain sensitive to the final week of campaigning, the distribution of undecided voters in key provinces, and the precise performance of smaller parties that affect proportionality. This produces the observed market dispersion, with the highest probabilities assigned to brackets below 56 and between 61–70 seats. Late polling swings, regional turnout differences, or shifts in PP–Vox vote splitting could still move the final tally several seats in either direction.