Pedro Sánchez’s minority coalition government, reliant on pro-independence parties such as Junts, faces ongoing pressure from corruption investigations involving allies and family members, alongside repeated PSOE setbacks in regional contests through mid-2026. The prime minister has consistently rejected early dissolution, reaffirming plans to reach the August 2027 deadline and hinting at a February or March vote while ruling out alignment with May regional and local polls. Recent regional snap elections in Extremadura, Aragón, Castilla y León, and Andalusia produced gains for the PP and kingmaker roles for Vox, highlighting a rightward shift and testing coalition stability. Budget negotiations, parliamentary support from regional parties, and any escalation in scandals remain the key variables that could prompt a call before the constitutional term ends.