The tight August 31 deadline, absent any scheduled high-level bilateral meetings or confirmed breakthroughs in recent weeks, underpins traders’ 96.7% implied probability against a U.S.-China tariff agreement. Ongoing Section 301 tariffs, including the July 2026 forced-labor measures, remain in place as leverage while both sides continue operating under the May 2026 framework that established joint Boards of Trade and Investment to address reciprocal rollbacks on roughly $30 billion in goods. Trade negotiations of this scope typically require extended agency reviews, congressional consultations, and phased concessions on market access, technology, and supply-chain issues—timelines that rarely compress into two weeks. A last-minute diplomatic statement, emergency summit announcement, or major concession from either side could still shift the outcome before resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update3% tsansa
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 31, 2026
3% tsansa
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.The tight August 31 deadline, absent any scheduled high-level bilateral meetings or confirmed breakthroughs in recent weeks, underpins traders’ 96.7% implied probability against a U.S.-China tariff agreement. Ongoing Section 301 tariffs, including the July 2026 forced-labor measures, remain in place as leverage while both sides continue operating under the May 2026 framework that established joint Boards of Trade and Investment to address reciprocal rollbacks on roughly $30 billion in goods. Trade negotiations of this scope typically require extended agency reviews, congressional consultations, and phased concessions on market access, technology, and supply-chain issues—timelines that rarely compress into two weeks. A last-minute diplomatic statement, emergency summit announcement, or major concession from either side could still shift the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ET
Volume
$2,410Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.The tight August 31 deadline, absent any scheduled high-level bilateral meetings or confirmed breakthroughs in recent weeks, underpins traders’ 96.7% implied probability against a U.S.-China tariff agreement. Ongoing Section 301 tariffs, including the July 2026 forced-labor measures, remain in place as leverage while both sides continue operating under the May 2026 framework that established joint Boards of Trade and Investment to address reciprocal rollbacks on roughly $30 billion in goods. Trade negotiations of this scope typically require extended agency reviews, congressional consultations, and phased concessions on market access, technology, and supply-chain issues—timelines that rarely compress into two weeks. A last-minute diplomatic statement, emergency summit announcement, or major concession from either side could still shift the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$2,410Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The tight August 31 deadline, absent any scheduled high-level bilateral meetings or confirmed breakthroughs in recent weeks, underpins traders’ 96.7% implied probability against a U.S.-China tariff agreement. Ongoing Section 301 tariffs, including the July 2026 forced-labor measures, remain in place as leverage while both sides continue operating under the May 2026 framework that established joint Boards of Trade and Investment to address reciprocal rollbacks on roughly $30 billion in goods. Trade negotiations of this scope typically require extended agency reviews, congressional consultations, and phased concessions on market access, technology, and supply-chain issues—timelines that rarely compress into two weeks. A last-minute diplomatic statement, emergency summit announcement, or major concession from either side could still shift the outcome before resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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