The Justice Department’s May 15 charging of Iraqi national Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood Al-Saadi with multiple terrorism-related counts for acting as an operative of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Kata’ib Hezbollah has become the dominant driver of the 65 percent “Yes” consensus. Federal prosecutors unsealed a complaint alleging his role in directing attacks on U.S. interests and providing material support to Iranian-backed organizations, meeting the market’s criteria for formal charges against an individual alleged to be an Iranian agent. Earlier 2026 cases, including the April arrest of Shamim Mafi for sanctions-violating arms brokering on behalf of Iranian intelligence, established precedent but lacked the recency needed to sustain elevated probabilities. With only two weeks remaining until the May 31 resolution deadline, traders are pricing in the likelihood of additional unsealed indictments tied to ongoing counter-espionage and sanctions enforcement actions before the cutoff.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWill an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?
BAGO
BAGO
May 31, 2026
BAGO
BAGO
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Justice Department’s May 15 charging of Iraqi national Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood Al-Saadi with multiple terrorism-related counts for acting as an operative of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Kata’ib Hezbollah has become the dominant driver of the 65 percent “Yes” consensus. Federal prosecutors unsealed a complaint alleging his role in directing attacks on U.S. interests and providing material support to Iranian-backed organizations, meeting the market’s criteria for formal charges against an individual alleged to be an Iranian agent. Earlier 2026 cases, including the April arrest of Shamim Mafi for sanctions-violating arms brokering on behalf of Iranian intelligence, established precedent but lacked the recency needed to sustain elevated probabilities. With only two weeks remaining until the May 31 resolution deadline, traders are pricing in the likelihood of additional unsealed indictments tied to ongoing counter-espionage and sanctions enforcement actions before the cutoff.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Apr 20, 2026, 5:30 PM ET
Volume
$7,684Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Apr 20, 2026, 5:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Justice Department’s May 15 charging of Iraqi national Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood Al-Saadi with multiple terrorism-related counts for acting as an operative of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Kata’ib Hezbollah has become the dominant driver of the 65 percent “Yes” consensus. Federal prosecutors unsealed a complaint alleging his role in directing attacks on U.S. interests and providing material support to Iranian-backed organizations, meeting the market’s criteria for formal charges against an individual alleged to be an Iranian agent. Earlier 2026 cases, including the April arrest of Shamim Mafi for sanctions-violating arms brokering on behalf of Iranian intelligence, established precedent but lacked the recency needed to sustain elevated probabilities. With only two weeks remaining until the May 31 resolution deadline, traders are pricing in the likelihood of additional unsealed indictments tied to ongoing counter-espionage and sanctions enforcement actions before the cutoff.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$7,684Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Apr 20, 2026, 5:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Justice Department’s May 15 charging of Iraqi national Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood Al-Saadi with multiple terrorism-related counts for acting as an operative of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Kata’ib Hezbollah has become the dominant driver of the 65 percent “Yes” consensus. Federal prosecutors unsealed a complaint alleging his role in directing attacks on U.S. interests and providing material support to Iranian-backed organizations, meeting the market’s criteria for formal charges against an individual alleged to be an Iranian agent. Earlier 2026 cases, including the April arrest of Shamim Mafi for sanctions-violating arms brokering on behalf of Iranian intelligence, established precedent but lacked the recency needed to sustain elevated probabilities. With only two weeks remaining until the May 31 resolution deadline, traders are pricing in the likelihood of additional unsealed indictments tied to ongoing counter-espionage and sanctions enforcement actions before the cutoff.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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