The market's overwhelming 94.8% implied probability for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 reflects robust scientific consensus on Earth's tectonic limits. Historical records from the USGS show the largest instrumentally recorded events reached 9.5, limited by finite fault lengths and maximum slip rates along subduction zones. Seismic moment calculations indicate a 10.0 event would require energy release roughly 30 times greater than the 1960 Valdivia quake, exceeding known plate-boundary constraints. While model uncertainties persist around undiscovered fault segments or altered stress regimes, no recent observational data or monitoring updates suggest conditions capable of bridging this gap before the 2027 resolution window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено10,0 або вище землетрусу до 2027 року?
10,0 або вище землетрусу до 2027 року?
$602,797 Обс.
$602,797 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$602,797 Обс.
$602,797 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The market's overwhelming 94.8% implied probability for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 reflects robust scientific consensus on Earth's tectonic limits. Historical records from the USGS show the largest instrumentally recorded events reached 9.5, limited by finite fault lengths and maximum slip rates along subduction zones. Seismic moment calculations indicate a 10.0 event would require energy release roughly 30 times greater than the 1960 Valdivia quake, exceeding known plate-boundary constraints. While model uncertainties persist around undiscovered fault segments or altered stress regimes, no recent observational data or monitoring updates suggest conditions capable of bridging this gap before the 2027 resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Обсяг
$602,797Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The market's overwhelming 94.8% implied probability for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 reflects robust scientific consensus on Earth's tectonic limits. Historical records from the USGS show the largest instrumentally recorded events reached 9.5, limited by finite fault lengths and maximum slip rates along subduction zones. Seismic moment calculations indicate a 10.0 event would require energy release roughly 30 times greater than the 1960 Valdivia quake, exceeding known plate-boundary constraints. While model uncertainties persist around undiscovered fault segments or altered stress regimes, no recent observational data or monitoring updates suggest conditions capable of bridging this gap before the 2027 resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Обсяг
$602,797Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The market's overwhelming 94.8% implied probability for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 reflects robust scientific consensus on Earth's tectonic limits. Historical records from the USGS show the largest instrumentally recorded events reached 9.5, limited by finite fault lengths and maximum slip rates along subduction zones. Seismic moment calculations indicate a 10.0 event would require energy release roughly 30 times greater than the 1960 Valdivia quake, exceeding known plate-boundary constraints. While model uncertainties persist around undiscovered fault segments or altered stress regimes, no recent observational data or monitoring updates suggest conditions capable of bridging this gap before the 2027 resolution window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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