Syria’s transitional constitutional framework, established in March 2025 with a five-year term, sets the primary structural barrier to any early removal of President Ahmed al-Sharaa before the end of 2026. Recent diplomatic engagements, including January 2026 ceasefire and integration agreements with the Syrian Democratic Forces, meetings with U.S. and U.K. officials, and ongoing security discussions with Israel, have strengthened his position and consolidated control over armed factions. Efforts to attract investment and manage domestic sectarian tensions have not yet produced organized political or military opposition capable of triggering resignation or ouster. With no scheduled elections or constitutional mechanisms for removal in the near term, trader consensus reflects the absence of imminent destabilizing events that would alter this outlook.