**Recent Berlin state election polls show the AfD consistently ahead of the SPD by several points ahead of the September 20, 2026, vote.** Surveys from INSA, Infratest dimap, and Civey place the AfD between 16% and 19%, while the SPD ranges from 12% to 15%. This gap has held or widened in AfD's favor over recent months. The AfD's gains align with its stronger performance in eastern districts and broader national trends on issues such as immigration, security, and economic conditions. The SPD, serving as the junior partner in the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition under Mayor Kai Wegner, has seen its support remain subdued. Other parties like the Left and CDU often lead or tie for the top spot in aggregates, but the AfD-SPD matchup favors the former based on current head-to-head figures. Traders appear to view the polling margin as durable enough to support the high implied probability for an AfD lead in raw vote share, with limited late shifts expected in the final month.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAfD
82% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 20, 2026
AfD
82% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**Recent Berlin state election polls show the AfD consistently ahead of the SPD by several points ahead of the September 20, 2026, vote.** Surveys from INSA, Infratest dimap, and Civey place the AfD between 16% and 19%, while the SPD ranges from 12% to 15%. This gap has held or widened in AfD's favor over recent months.
The AfD's gains align with its stronger performance in eastern districts and broader national trends on issues such as immigration, security, and economic conditions. The SPD, serving as the junior partner in the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition under Mayor Kai Wegner, has seen its support remain subdued. Other parties like the Left and CDU often lead or tie for the top spot in aggregates, but the AfD-SPD matchup favors the former based on current head-to-head figures.
Traders appear to view the polling margin as durable enough to support the high implied probability for an AfD lead in raw vote share, with limited late shifts expected in the final month.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ET
Обсяг
$70Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**Recent Berlin state election polls show the AfD consistently ahead of the SPD by several points ahead of the September 20, 2026, vote.** Surveys from INSA, Infratest dimap, and Civey place the AfD between 16% and 19%, while the SPD ranges from 12% to 15%. This gap has held or widened in AfD's favor over recent months.
The AfD's gains align with its stronger performance in eastern districts and broader national trends on issues such as immigration, security, and economic conditions. The SPD, serving as the junior partner in the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition under Mayor Kai Wegner, has seen its support remain subdued. Other parties like the Left and CDU often lead or tie for the top spot in aggregates, but the AfD-SPD matchup favors the former based on current head-to-head figures.
Traders appear to view the polling margin as durable enough to support the high implied probability for an AfD lead in raw vote share, with limited late shifts expected in the final month.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Обсяг
$70Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent Berlin state election polls show the AfD consistently ahead of the SPD by several points ahead of the September 20, 2026, vote.** Surveys from INSA, Infratest dimap, and Civey place the AfD between 16% and 19%, while the SPD ranges from 12% to 15%. This gap has held or widened in AfD's favor over recent months. The AfD's gains align with its stronger performance in eastern districts and broader national trends on issues such as immigration, security, and economic conditions. The SPD, serving as the junior partner in the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition under Mayor Kai Wegner, has seen its support remain subdued. Other parties like the Left and CDU often lead or tie for the top spot in aggregates, but the AfD-SPD matchup favors the former based on current head-to-head figures. Traders appear to view the polling margin as durable enough to support the high implied probability for an AfD lead in raw vote share, with limited late shifts expected in the final month.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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