Ongoing maritime confrontations between Chinese and Philippine coast guard vessels, including water cannon use and physical altercations at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal in July 2026, have sustained elevated tensions without triggering direct military engagement. Diplomatic channels remain active, with ASEAN foreign ministers reporting progress toward a Code of Conduct expected by year-end, while the Philippines advances seabed claims and resupply operations under its mutual defense framework with the United States and partners. Joint maritime drills involving U.S. and Japanese forces have reinforced deterrence, and historical patterns show such gray-zone incidents recurring without crossing into sustained armed clashes. Traders assign the 66.5% probability to “No” on the basis of this contained dynamic and the limited window remaining in 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено34% шанс
$94,456 Обс.
$94,456 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
34% шанс
$94,456 Обс.
$94,456 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing maritime confrontations between Chinese and Philippine coast guard vessels, including water cannon use and physical altercations at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal in July 2026, have sustained elevated tensions without triggering direct military engagement. Diplomatic channels remain active, with ASEAN foreign ministers reporting progress toward a Code of Conduct expected by year-end, while the Philippines advances seabed claims and resupply operations under its mutual defense framework with the United States and partners. Joint maritime drills involving U.S. and Japanese forces have reinforced deterrence, and historical patterns show such gray-zone incidents recurring without crossing into sustained armed clashes. Traders assign the 66.5% probability to “No” on the basis of this contained dynamic and the limited window remaining in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ET
Обсяг
$94,456Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing maritime confrontations between Chinese and Philippine coast guard vessels, including water cannon use and physical altercations at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal in July 2026, have sustained elevated tensions without triggering direct military engagement. Diplomatic channels remain active, with ASEAN foreign ministers reporting progress toward a Code of Conduct expected by year-end, while the Philippines advances seabed claims and resupply operations under its mutual defense framework with the United States and partners. Joint maritime drills involving U.S. and Japanese forces have reinforced deterrence, and historical patterns show such gray-zone incidents recurring without crossing into sustained armed clashes. Traders assign the 66.5% probability to “No” on the basis of this contained dynamic and the limited window remaining in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$94,456Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing maritime confrontations between Chinese and Philippine coast guard vessels, including water cannon use and physical altercations at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal in July 2026, have sustained elevated tensions without triggering direct military engagement. Diplomatic channels remain active, with ASEAN foreign ministers reporting progress toward a Code of Conduct expected by year-end, while the Philippines advances seabed claims and resupply operations under its mutual defense framework with the United States and partners. Joint maritime drills involving U.S. and Japanese forces have reinforced deterrence, and historical patterns show such gray-zone incidents recurring without crossing into sustained armed clashes. Traders assign the 66.5% probability to “No” on the basis of this contained dynamic and the limited window remaining in 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання