Congress has enacted a continuing resolution extending federal funding at prior-year levels through December 11, 2026, clearing both chambers with wide bipartisan margins and receiving presidential signature well ahead of the September 30 fiscal year-end. This early action on a clean stopgap measure, free of major policy riders, has removed the immediate threat of a lapse in appropriations on October 1 and accounts for the near-certain trader consensus against such an outcome. Historical patterns of last-minute negotiations and prior FY2026 funding gaps underscore why markets treat enacted legislation as decisive. Remaining risks center on any unforeseen procedural reversal or dispute over subsequent full-year bills, though no such developments have materialized in the current cycle.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено1% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 1, 2026
1% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 1, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Congress has enacted a continuing resolution extending federal funding at prior-year levels through December 11, 2026, clearing both chambers with wide bipartisan margins and receiving presidential signature well ahead of the September 30 fiscal year-end. This early action on a clean stopgap measure, free of major policy riders, has removed the immediate threat of a lapse in appropriations on October 1 and accounts for the near-certain trader consensus against such an outcome. Historical patterns of last-minute negotiations and prior FY2026 funding gaps underscore why markets treat enacted legislation as decisive. Remaining risks center on any unforeseen procedural reversal or dispute over subsequent full-year bills, though no such developments have materialized in the current cycle.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$3,071Дата завершення
Oct 2, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Congress has enacted a continuing resolution extending federal funding at prior-year levels through December 11, 2026, clearing both chambers with wide bipartisan margins and receiving presidential signature well ahead of the September 30 fiscal year-end. This early action on a clean stopgap measure, free of major policy riders, has removed the immediate threat of a lapse in appropriations on October 1 and accounts for the near-certain trader consensus against such an outcome. Historical patterns of last-minute negotiations and prior FY2026 funding gaps underscore why markets treat enacted legislation as decisive. Remaining risks center on any unforeseen procedural reversal or dispute over subsequent full-year bills, though no such developments have materialized in the current cycle.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$3,071Дата завершення
Oct 2, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Congress has enacted a continuing resolution extending federal funding at prior-year levels through December 11, 2026, clearing both chambers with wide bipartisan margins and receiving presidential signature well ahead of the September 30 fiscal year-end. This early action on a clean stopgap measure, free of major policy riders, has removed the immediate threat of a lapse in appropriations on October 1 and accounts for the near-certain trader consensus against such an outcome. Historical patterns of last-minute negotiations and prior FY2026 funding gaps underscore why markets treat enacted legislation as decisive. Remaining risks center on any unforeseen procedural reversal or dispute over subsequent full-year bills, though no such developments have materialized in the current cycle.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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