Recent polling from late August through mid-September places Augusto Cury (Avante) in the 6-8% range for Brazil’s October 4 first round, after a sharp late-August surge to double digits driven by television appearances and social-media growth among independents. Support has since eased as the contest polarizes between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro, who together command roughly 70% of intentions and draw back voters seeking a decisive runoff choice. Cury’s positioning as a non-polarizing alternative has not yet produced durable gains against the two frontrunners, while smaller right-leaning candidates split the remaining field. Trader probabilities remain dispersed across the bins because Cury’s final share hinges on turnout among independents, any late campaign momentum, and whether polarization accelerates in the final weeks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено2-4% 25%
4-6% 19%
<1% 18%
1-2% 15%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 4, 2026
<1%
18%
1-2%
15%
2-4%
25%
4-6%
19%
6%+
45%
2-4% 25%
4-6% 19%
<1% 18%
1-2% 15%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 4, 2026
<1%
$0 Обс.
18%
1-2%
$20 Обс.
15%
2-4%
$17 Обс.
25%
4-6%
$0 Обс.
19%
6%+
$6 Обс.
45%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from late August through mid-September places Augusto Cury (Avante) in the 6-8% range for Brazil’s October 4 first round, after a sharp late-August surge to double digits driven by television appearances and social-media growth among independents. Support has since eased as the contest polarizes between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro, who together command roughly 70% of intentions and draw back voters seeking a decisive runoff choice. Cury’s positioning as a non-polarizing alternative has not yet produced durable gains against the two frontrunners, while smaller right-leaning candidates split the remaining field. Trader probabilities remain dispersed across the bins because Cury’s final share hinges on turnout among independents, any late campaign momentum, and whether polarization accelerates in the final weeks.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Ринок відкрито: Sep 15, 2026, 10:28 PM ET
Обсяг
$44Дата завершення
Oct 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 15, 2026, 10:28 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from late August through mid-September places Augusto Cury (Avante) in the 6-8% range for Brazil’s October 4 first round, after a sharp late-August surge to double digits driven by television appearances and social-media growth among independents. Support has since eased as the contest polarizes between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro, who together command roughly 70% of intentions and draw back voters seeking a decisive runoff choice. Cury’s positioning as a non-polarizing alternative has not yet produced durable gains against the two frontrunners, while smaller right-leaning candidates split the remaining field. Trader probabilities remain dispersed across the bins because Cury’s final share hinges on turnout among independents, any late campaign momentum, and whether polarization accelerates in the final weeks.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Обсяг
$44Дата завершення
Oct 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 15, 2026, 10:28 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from late August through mid-September places Augusto Cury (Avante) in the 6-8% range for Brazil’s October 4 first round, after a sharp late-August surge to double digits driven by television appearances and social-media growth among independents. Support has since eased as the contest polarizes between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro, who together command roughly 70% of intentions and draw back voters seeking a decisive runoff choice. Cury’s positioning as a non-polarizing alternative has not yet produced durable gains against the two frontrunners, while smaller right-leaning candidates split the remaining field. Trader probabilities remain dispersed across the bins because Cury’s final share hinges on turnout among independents, any late campaign momentum, and whether polarization accelerates in the final weeks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоПов'язане
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
55%
Will Renan Santos win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
50%
Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
40%
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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