Recent polling from mid-September shows Lula (PT) holding a narrow first-round lead over Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in the October 4 election, with Lula typically at 38-42% and the challenger at 31-37%, reflecting a tightening contest as right-leaning support consolidates behind the Liberal Party candidate. Mixed government approval ratings near 43-46%, economic headwinds including slowing growth and the latest Selic rate cut, plus a fragmented field featuring rising support for Augusto Cury and others, have kept Lula’s projected share in the low-to-mid 40s range amid high undecided and blank/null intentions. Trader positioning around 41-44% aligns with these aggregates, where small shifts in turnout among swing voters or late campaign events could push Lula above or below key thresholds before first-round voting.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено44%+ 42%
41-44% 39%
38-41% 14%
<35% 4.9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 4, 2026
<35%
5%
35-38%
5%
38-41%
14%
41-44%
39%
44%+
42%
44%+ 42%
41-44% 39%
38-41% 14%
<35% 4.9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 4, 2026
<35%
$353 Обс.
5%
35-38%
$348 Обс.
5%
38-41%
$727 Обс.
14%
41-44%
$1,016 Обс.
39%
44%+
$1,231 Обс.
42%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from mid-September shows Lula (PT) holding a narrow first-round lead over Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in the October 4 election, with Lula typically at 38-42% and the challenger at 31-37%, reflecting a tightening contest as right-leaning support consolidates behind the Liberal Party candidate. Mixed government approval ratings near 43-46%, economic headwinds including slowing growth and the latest Selic rate cut, plus a fragmented field featuring rising support for Augusto Cury and others, have kept Lula’s projected share in the low-to-mid 40s range amid high undecided and blank/null intentions. Trader positioning around 41-44% aligns with these aggregates, where small shifts in turnout among swing voters or late campaign events could push Lula above or below key thresholds before first-round voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Ринок відкрито: Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ET
Обсяг
$3,676Дата завершення
Oct 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from mid-September shows Lula (PT) holding a narrow first-round lead over Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in the October 4 election, with Lula typically at 38-42% and the challenger at 31-37%, reflecting a tightening contest as right-leaning support consolidates behind the Liberal Party candidate. Mixed government approval ratings near 43-46%, economic headwinds including slowing growth and the latest Selic rate cut, plus a fragmented field featuring rising support for Augusto Cury and others, have kept Lula’s projected share in the low-to-mid 40s range amid high undecided and blank/null intentions. Trader positioning around 41-44% aligns with these aggregates, where small shifts in turnout among swing voters or late campaign events could push Lula above or below key thresholds before first-round voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Обсяг
$3,676Дата завершення
Oct 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from mid-September shows Lula (PT) holding a narrow first-round lead over Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in the October 4 election, with Lula typically at 38-42% and the challenger at 31-37%, reflecting a tightening contest as right-leaning support consolidates behind the Liberal Party candidate. Mixed government approval ratings near 43-46%, economic headwinds including slowing growth and the latest Selic rate cut, plus a fragmented field featuring rising support for Augusto Cury and others, have kept Lula’s projected share in the low-to-mid 40s range amid high undecided and blank/null intentions. Trader positioning around 41-44% aligns with these aggregates, where small shifts in turnout among swing voters or late campaign events could push Lula above or below key thresholds before first-round voting.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоПов'язане
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
71%
Will Renan Santos win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
35%
Will Augusto Cury win 6% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
61%
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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