In São Paulo's October 2026 Senate race, where voters select the top two candidates for the state's two seats, recent polling from Quaest, Ideia, and Genial/Quaest shows Simone Tebet (PSB) and Marina Silva (Rede) holding narrow leads, closely followed by Guilherme Derrite (PP) and André do Prado (PL). This positioning keeps implied probabilities for second place tightly clustered around 20-30% among frontrunners, as the contest pits Lula-aligned centrists against right-leaning challengers backed by Governor Tarcísio de Freitas's network. Official campaigning began in mid-August, amplifying focus on turnout among urban and evangelical blocs, while early Lula endorsements have drawn legal scrutiny without shifting aggregates. The open field and dual-vote mechanics sustain volatility, with any surge in right-wing consolidation or left-leaning turnout mobilization able to reorder the second spot ahead of the single-round vote.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоSimone Tebet 29%
Guilherme Derrite 24%
Marina Silva 17%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 4, 2026
Simone Tebet
29%
Guilherme Derrite
24%
Marina Silva
24%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
7%
Marcio Alves
11%
André do Prado
8%
Soninha Francine
8%
Geraldo Rufino
8%
Weller Gonçalves
8%
Salles
8%
Maíra de Souza
7%
William Teixeira
6%
Ednelson Cesaretti
1%
Petter Maahs
14%
Simone Tebet 29%
Guilherme Derrite 24%
Marina Silva 17%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 4, 2026
Simone Tebet
$164 Обс.
29%
Guilherme Derrite
$187 Обс.
24%
Marina Silva
$184 Обс.
24%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
$99 Обс.
7%
Marcio Alves
$99 Обс.
11%
André do Prado
$119 Обс.
8%
Soninha Francine
$111 Обс.
8%
Geraldo Rufino
$97 Обс.
8%
Weller Gonçalves
$79 Обс.
8%
Salles
$99 Обс.
8%
Maíra de Souza
$90 Обс.
7%
William Teixeira
$121 Обс.
6%
Ednelson Cesaretti
$112 Обс.
1%
Petter Maahs
$79 Обс.
14%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).In São Paulo's October 2026 Senate race, where voters select the top two candidates for the state's two seats, recent polling from Quaest, Ideia, and Genial/Quaest shows Simone Tebet (PSB) and Marina Silva (Rede) holding narrow leads, closely followed by Guilherme Derrite (PP) and André do Prado (PL). This positioning keeps implied probabilities for second place tightly clustered around 20-30% among frontrunners, as the contest pits Lula-aligned centrists against right-leaning challengers backed by Governor Tarcísio de Freitas's network. Official campaigning began in mid-August, amplifying focus on turnout among urban and evangelical blocs, while early Lula endorsements have drawn legal scrutiny without shifting aggregates. The open field and dual-vote mechanics sustain volatility, with any surge in right-wing consolidation or left-leaning turnout mobilization able to reorder the second spot ahead of the single-round vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,639Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).In São Paulo's October 2026 Senate race, where voters select the top two candidates for the state's two seats, recent polling from Quaest, Ideia, and Genial/Quaest shows Simone Tebet (PSB) and Marina Silva (Rede) holding narrow leads, closely followed by Guilherme Derrite (PP) and André do Prado (PL). This positioning keeps implied probabilities for second place tightly clustered around 20-30% among frontrunners, as the contest pits Lula-aligned centrists against right-leaning challengers backed by Governor Tarcísio de Freitas's network. Official campaigning began in mid-August, amplifying focus on turnout among urban and evangelical blocs, while early Lula endorsements have drawn legal scrutiny without shifting aggregates. The open field and dual-vote mechanics sustain volatility, with any surge in right-wing consolidation or left-leaning turnout mobilization able to reorder the second spot ahead of the single-round vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Обсяг
$1,639Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...In São Paulo's October 2026 Senate race, where voters select the top two candidates for the state's two seats, recent polling from Quaest, Ideia, and Genial/Quaest shows Simone Tebet (PSB) and Marina Silva (Rede) holding narrow leads, closely followed by Guilherme Derrite (PP) and André do Prado (PL). This positioning keeps implied probabilities for second place tightly clustered around 20-30% among frontrunners, as the contest pits Lula-aligned centrists against right-leaning challengers backed by Governor Tarcísio de Freitas's network. Official campaigning began in mid-August, amplifying focus on turnout among urban and evangelical blocs, while early Lula endorsements have drawn legal scrutiny without shifting aggregates. The open field and dual-vote mechanics sustain volatility, with any surge in right-wing consolidation or left-leaning turnout mobilization able to reorder the second spot ahead of the single-round vote.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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