**Trader consensus in this Ceará-specific first-round market reflects a highly fragmented field and regional uncertainty, with Lula holding a modest edge at 48.5% implied probability amid national polling leads of roughly 38-42% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 28-35%.** Ceará’s Northeast electorate has historically favored Workers’ Party candidates, yet the August 15 candidate registration deadline and the official campaign launch have not yet produced decisive separation. Flávio Bolsonaro, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury remain in single digits nationally, while local factors such as Eduardo Girão’s vice-presidential slot and Ciro Gomes’ gubernatorial bid could influence turnout or split opposition votes. Recent Quaest and AtlasIntel surveys show a slight narrowing of Lula’s lead and elevated undecided shares, keeping multiple outcomes competitive through October 4. Late shifts in turnout, regional endorsements, or economic messaging could still reorder the state result before first-round voting.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHertz Dias 87%
Pablo Marçal 87%
Clariana Barao 87%
Escritor Augusto Cury 87%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 4, 2026
Hertz Dias
87%
Pablo Marçal
87%
Clariana Barao
87%
Escritor Augusto Cury
87%
Renan Santos
87%
Edmilson Costa
42%
Flavio Bolsonaro
41%
Lula
52%
Ronaldo Caiado
-
Rui Costa Pimenta
-
Samara
44%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
-
Zema
42%
Hertz Dias 87%
Pablo Marçal 87%
Clariana Barao 87%
Escritor Augusto Cury 87%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 4, 2026
Hertz Dias
$52 Обс.
87%
Pablo Marçal
$52 Обс.
87%
Clariana Barao
$52 Обс.
87%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$52 Обс.
87%
Renan Santos
$52 Обс.
87%
Edmilson Costa
$102 Обс.
42%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$102 Обс.
41%
Lula
$170 Обс.
52%
Ronaldo Caiado
$52 Обс.
-
Rui Costa Pimenta
$52 Обс.
-
Samara
$102 Обс.
44%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$52 Обс.
-
Zema
$102 Обс.
42%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Trader consensus in this Ceará-specific first-round market reflects a highly fragmented field and regional uncertainty, with Lula holding a modest edge at 48.5% implied probability amid national polling leads of roughly 38-42% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 28-35%.** Ceará’s Northeast electorate has historically favored Workers’ Party candidates, yet the August 15 candidate registration deadline and the official campaign launch have not yet produced decisive separation. Flávio Bolsonaro, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury remain in single digits nationally, while local factors such as Eduardo Girão’s vice-presidential slot and Ciro Gomes’ gubernatorial bid could influence turnout or split opposition votes. Recent Quaest and AtlasIntel surveys show a slight narrowing of Lula’s lead and elevated undecided shares, keeping multiple outcomes competitive through October 4. Late shifts in turnout, regional endorsements, or economic messaging could still reorder the state result before first-round voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Обсяг
$993Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Trader consensus in this Ceará-specific first-round market reflects a highly fragmented field and regional uncertainty, with Lula holding a modest edge at 48.5% implied probability amid national polling leads of roughly 38-42% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 28-35%.** Ceará’s Northeast electorate has historically favored Workers’ Party candidates, yet the August 15 candidate registration deadline and the official campaign launch have not yet produced decisive separation. Flávio Bolsonaro, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury remain in single digits nationally, while local factors such as Eduardo Girão’s vice-presidential slot and Ciro Gomes’ gubernatorial bid could influence turnout or split opposition votes. Recent Quaest and AtlasIntel surveys show a slight narrowing of Lula’s lead and elevated undecided shares, keeping multiple outcomes competitive through October 4. Late shifts in turnout, regional endorsements, or economic messaging could still reorder the state result before first-round voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Обсяг
$993Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus in this Ceará-specific first-round market reflects a highly fragmented field and regional uncertainty, with Lula holding a modest edge at 48.5% implied probability amid national polling leads of roughly 38-42% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 28-35%.** Ceará’s Northeast electorate has historically favored Workers’ Party candidates, yet the August 15 candidate registration deadline and the official campaign launch have not yet produced decisive separation. Flávio Bolsonaro, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury remain in single digits nationally, while local factors such as Eduardo Girão’s vice-presidential slot and Ciro Gomes’ gubernatorial bid could influence turnout or split opposition votes. Recent Quaest and AtlasIntel surveys show a slight narrowing of Lula’s lead and elevated undecided shares, keeping multiple outcomes competitive through October 4. Late shifts in turnout, regional endorsements, or economic messaging could still reorder the state result before first-round voting.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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