São Paulo’s October 2026 Senate race for two seats features a crowded field of more than two dozen pre-candidates, including Marina Silva (REDE), Ricardo Salles (Novo), André do Prado (PL), and others, with no incumbents seeking reelection. Trader consensus reflects this fragmentation, with many outcomes priced near even money and top names clustered in the low-to-mid 40s or below. Recent formalizations of candidacies and ongoing party negotiations have yet to produce clear frontrunners or major polling separation. Factors that could shift probabilities include coalition alignments tied to the presidential contest, targeted voter outreach among key demographics, and any late endorsements or withdrawals that consolidate support ahead of the single-round vote.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMarina Silva 48%
Maíra de Souza 43%
Geraldo Rufino 43%
Simone Tebet 43%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 4, 2026
Marina Silva
48%
Maíra de Souza
43%
Geraldo Rufino
43%
Simone Tebet
43%
Petter Maahs
42%
Ednelson Cesaretti
42%
Soninha Francine
40%
Salles
36%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
18%
André do Prado
18%
William Teixeira
8%
Marcio Alves
8%
Weller Gonçalves
46%
Guilherme Derrite
44%
Marina Silva 48%
Maíra de Souza 43%
Geraldo Rufino 43%
Simone Tebet 43%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 4, 2026
Marina Silva
$20 Обс.
48%
Maíra de Souza
$20 Обс.
43%
Geraldo Rufino
$20 Обс.
43%
Simone Tebet
$20 Обс.
43%
Petter Maahs
$20 Обс.
42%
Ednelson Cesaretti
$20 Обс.
42%
Soninha Francine
$20 Обс.
40%
Salles
$20 Обс.
36%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
$20 Обс.
18%
André do Prado
$20 Обс.
18%
William Teixeira
$40 Обс.
8%
Marcio Alves
$40 Обс.
8%
Weller Gonçalves
$20 Обс.
46%
Guilherme Derrite
$40 Обс.
44%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).São Paulo’s October 2026 Senate race for two seats features a crowded field of more than two dozen pre-candidates, including Marina Silva (REDE), Ricardo Salles (Novo), André do Prado (PL), and others, with no incumbents seeking reelection. Trader consensus reflects this fragmentation, with many outcomes priced near even money and top names clustered in the low-to-mid 40s or below. Recent formalizations of candidacies and ongoing party negotiations have yet to produce clear frontrunners or major polling separation. Factors that could shift probabilities include coalition alignments tied to the presidential contest, targeted voter outreach among key demographics, and any late endorsements or withdrawals that consolidate support ahead of the single-round vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Обсяг
$340Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).São Paulo’s October 2026 Senate race for two seats features a crowded field of more than two dozen pre-candidates, including Marina Silva (REDE), Ricardo Salles (Novo), André do Prado (PL), and others, with no incumbents seeking reelection. Trader consensus reflects this fragmentation, with many outcomes priced near even money and top names clustered in the low-to-mid 40s or below. Recent formalizations of candidacies and ongoing party negotiations have yet to produce clear frontrunners or major polling separation. Factors that could shift probabilities include coalition alignments tied to the presidential contest, targeted voter outreach among key demographics, and any late endorsements or withdrawals that consolidate support ahead of the single-round vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Обсяг
$340Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...São Paulo’s October 2026 Senate race for two seats features a crowded field of more than two dozen pre-candidates, including Marina Silva (REDE), Ricardo Salles (Novo), André do Prado (PL), and others, with no incumbents seeking reelection. Trader consensus reflects this fragmentation, with many outcomes priced near even money and top names clustered in the low-to-mid 40s or below. Recent formalizations of candidacies and ongoing party negotiations have yet to produce clear frontrunners or major polling separation. Factors that could shift probabilities include coalition alignments tied to the presidential contest, targeted voter outreach among key demographics, and any late endorsements or withdrawals that consolidate support ahead of the single-round vote.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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