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icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner
Політика·Бразилія

Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner
Політика·Бразилія

Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner

Lula 86%

Flavio Bolsonaro 12%

Escritor Augusto Cury 2.0%

Renan Santos <1%

Polymarket
НОВЕ

$10,151 Обс.

Lula 86%

Flavio Bolsonaro 12%

Escritor Augusto Cury 2.0%

Renan Santos <1%

Polymarket
НОВЕ

$10,151 Обс.

icon for Lula

Lula

$4,004 Обс.

86%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$1,814 Обс.

12%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$706 Обс.

2%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$416 Обс.

1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$546 Обс.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$477 Обс.

<1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$288 Обс.

<1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$296 Обс.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$296 Обс.

<1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$316 Обс.

<1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$259 Обс.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$366 Обс.

<1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$366 Обс.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Lula leads first-round simulations in recent Brazilian polling aggregates with 37–43% support, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 31–35%, while other contenders such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema remain in single digits.** This positioning underpins the 85.5% trader consensus on Lula as first-round winner ahead of the October 4 vote. Official campaigning opened in mid-August, followed by the first debate and free electoral broadcasts, yet the incumbent’s advantage has held amid a fragmented right-wing field. Flávio Bolsonaro’s 11.5% market price reflects his consistent second-place standing and limited consolidation of conservative support despite his father’s endorsement. Minor candidates trade at negligible levels consistent with their poll shares below 5–11%. Runoff scenarios remain closer, but first-round plurality odds favor the Workers’ Party leader due to the current vote distribution.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Обсяг
$10,151
Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ET

Джерело вирішення

https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/

Вирішувач

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Lula leads first-round simulations in recent Brazilian polling aggregates with 37–43% support, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 31–35%, while other contenders such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema remain in single digits.** This positioning underpins the 85.5% trader consensus on Lula as first-round winner ahead of the October 4 vote. Official campaigning opened in mid-August, followed by the first debate and free electoral broadcasts, yet the incumbent’s advantage has held amid a fragmented right-wing field. Flávio Bolsonaro’s 11.5% market price reflects his consistent second-place standing and limited consolidation of conservative support despite his father’s endorsement. Minor candidates trade at negligible levels consistent with their poll shares below 5–11%. Runoff scenarios remain closer, but first-round plurality odds favor the Workers’ Party leader due to the current vote distribution.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Обсяг
$10,151
Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ET

Джерело вирішення

https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/

Вирішувач

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Пов'язане

icon for Чи займе Флавіо Болсонару друге місце у першому турі президентських виборів у Бразилії 2026 року?

Чи займе Флавіо Болсонару друге місце у першому турі президентських виборів у Бразилії 2026 року?

86%
Так
icon for Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

51%
icon for Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District?

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District?

80%

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 13 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «Lula» з 86%, далі «Flavio Bolsonaro» з 12%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner» згенерував $10.2K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Aug 31, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner», перегляньте 13 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner» — «Lula» з 86%. Наступний — «Flavio Bolsonaro» з 12%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.